隐含波动率一般的模式是逐渐上扬,在财报等重大事件或选择权到期前不久触顶

http://cn.reuters.com/article/cnMktNews/idCNnCT038659120100806?feedType=RSS&feedName=cnMktNews&pageNumber=3&virtualBrandChannel=0

路透纽约8月5日电---选择权隐含波动率通常被用来当作预测财报发布後股价波动的工具.但在本财报季当中,隐含波动率于盘中异常震盪,则传达出纷杂不一的讯号.


选择权投资人指出,选择权市场缺乏流动性,加上总体经济状况不明朗,均为导致隐含波动率大幅震盪的罪魁祸首,使其难以在财报出炉前布局.


据以估算股价波动的隐含波动率一般的模式是逐渐上扬,在财报等重大事件或选择权到期前不久触顶.


但财报季自7月中旬揭幕後,苹果(AAPL.O: 行情)、谷歌(GOOG.O: 行情)及微软(MSFT.O: 行情)等部份大型企业在财报即将出炉之际,其股票隐含波动率即曾出现早盘位于高档,午後骤然暴跌,终场以最低或最高位作收的景况.


"本季以日内为基础看来,这可能更像是隐含波动率的震盪,"Contango Capital Advisors投资策略主管Perry Piazza表示.


他指出,"以对冲基金而言,这并不是个很好的市场,因为标准普尔500指数.SPX自4月底以来即五或六度穿越1,100点水准.其报酬率持平上年水准,且折损了许多选择权部位,"进而导致流动性乾涸.


据网路经纪商OptionHouse.com首席投资策略师Steve Claussen表示,7月底时,选择权日均量为1,380万,而6月中旬时为1,660万. 待续
此外,买进7月及8月合约的选择权投资人在6月出现庞大的溢酬後急着锁定获利,也导致盘中波动幅波高于预期.


"众所皆知企业财报季在7月及8月登场,所以他们藉由买进7月及8月选择权以兹因应.但因市场曾如此猛烈的急拉,导致他们失去许多付出的权利金,基本上只能坐视其对冲部位消逝,"Macro Risk Advisors策略师Justin Golden指出.


在6月最後一周时,标准普尔500指数下挫约8.5%.指数在7月2日跌至1,022点,为今年来最低位.


"你能做的就是藉由买进或卖出一支股票,对短期选择权部位进行对冲或获利了结,时间点要较往常财报季来得早,"他表示.



**外部因素**


7月时市场惴惴不安,因经济数据表现不佳,且美国联邦储备理事会(FED)主席贝南克发表悲观的证词,而这常令强劲的企业业绩相形失色.


"值此之际,总经状况实际上正推高股市,其影响力要胜过任何与业绩相关的事物.这端视当日的'外部因素'而定,比如数据、金融监管或BP漏油案,隐含波动率的波动与预估或预测无关,"Fogel Neale Partners投资策略师Ralph Fogel表示.


"曾多次出现个股业绩颇为亮丽,但终场仍回吐涨势的情况."


据汤森路透I/B/E/S/资料显示,截至7月30日,在标准普尔500指数已发布财报的336家企业中,有75%获利超越分析师预估,往常均值为62%.

http://cn.reuters.com/article/cnMktNews/idCNnCT038659120100806?feedType=RSS&feedName=cnMktNews&pageNumber=3&virtualBrandChannel=0

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• 把自己变成黑天鹅”。要点就是上面提到的两条，一个是 scalable，一个是要有正反馈 -marketreflections- ♂ (3782 bytes) () 09/14/2010 postreply 11:40:48

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• 在保守系统出现混沌时，由于对初值的极敏感性，同宿点有无穷多个，系统演化沿 方向和沿 方向的结果将不一致， -marketreflections- ♂ (26744 bytes) () 09/14/2010 postreply 12:03:12

• 精品课程 第四章 分 形 -marketreflections- ♂ (48667 bytes) () 09/14/2010 postreply 12:07:32

• 分形，新维度出现但代表性质量很少，比如msft 初期，但每人100元买其产品，全世界都买（从其他老维度平衡过来的购买力），于是盖 -marketreflections- ♂ (767 bytes) () 09/14/2010 postreply 12:30:58

• 分形，新维度出现但代表性质量很少，为什么英国天生就是一个个人主义（资本主义）社会? -marketreflections- ♂ (2283 bytes) () 09/14/2010 postreply 15:13:56

• Mike Krieger of Kam LLP：gold best way to short the mkt -marketreflections- ♂ (7150 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 09:50:44

• Mike Krieger formerly a macro analyst at Bernstein -marketreflections- ♂ (11424 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 10:01:54

• ZH type bears may have priced that “new norm” bottom too low bel -marketreflections- ♂ (3680 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 11:24:11

• There is the economy of finance and international commerce, both -marketreflections- ♂ (5111 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 13:48:55

• 美国正在建立一个金融与产业之间的剪刀差，而欧洲和日本与新兴国家都成了美国的目标 -marketreflections- ♂ (2591 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 14:48:52

• animalspiritforecasts.blogspot.com trader must -marketreflections- ♂ (65 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 10:13:01

• “一个聪明人在一群蠢人中间，最聪明的行为就变得愚蠢了。”最有用的聪明是比平均数适当地高一点 -marketreflections- ♂ (917 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 14:06:11

• 坐言起行：“人类经济系统可以看做一个巨大的离散系统。 当系统內单元数目足够大时整体体现出流体的性质 -marketreflections- ♂ (808 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 14:16:31

• 雷诺数较小时，黏滞力对流场的影响大于惯性力，流场中流速的扰动会因黏滞力而衰减，流体流动稳定，为层流 -marketreflections- ♂ (1518 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 14:19:17

• Nic Lenoir of ICAP：If a system that is in a state of equilibrium -marketreflections- ♂ (5085 bytes) () 09/17/2010 postreply 08:09:08

• scott: you hit the right word, data=1st order, economy, story=2n -marketreflections- ♂ (839 bytes) () 09/17/2010 postreply 10:01:35

• data=1st order, economy, story=2nd order future -marketreflections- ♂ (205 bytes) () 09/17/2010 postreply 12:43:13

• 四声是否有“正交调制”: bottom line of linear methodology -marketreflections- ♂ (588 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 14:25:56

• 建筑，从完工开始塌陷。 [ 墨里荀 ] -marketreflections- ♂ (3210 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 14:37:28

• 时间是通过事件来定义的。 过了多长时间其实就是标准事件发生了多少次 -marketreflections- ♂ (440 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 14:57:26

• time will do that ：bulls have to work off the negative divergenc -marketreflections- ♂ (881 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 16:57:53

• Fast Stochastics versus Slow Stochastics (图) -marketreflections- ♂ (1604 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 17:12:30

• vix term structure to begin to flatten out and assume a more nor -marketreflections- ♂ (2499 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 17:17:33

• The price of VIX futures expiring in three months has exceeded t -marketreflections- ♂ (13150 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 17:21:53

• VXX and VXZ look out one month and 5 months, the VIX and VXV ind -marketreflections- ♂ (2171 bytes) () 09/17/2010 postreply 08:29:37

• allabouttrends.wordpress.com vxx (图) -marketreflections- ♂ (197 bytes) () 09/17/2010 postreply 08:40:56

• BILL LUBY：VIX of 32 means that approximately one-third of the ti -marketreflections- ♂ (4963 bytes) () 09/17/2010 postreply 08:54:38

• 如果动力系统完全不可控， 那么它的输出只能是白噪声，而这却是最好处理的系统之一 -marketreflections- ♂ (933 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 15:05:47

• 一阶解：“超凡脱众的人其实不是最聪明的,分母,分子, still in one -marketreflections- ♂ (246 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 14:41:55

• The Social Atom：一阶解：“理性者的均值是要算的" -marketreflections- ♂ (3786 bytes) () 09/17/2010 postreply 13:15:58

• http://principleanalysis.blogspot.com/ mchugh -marketreflections- ♂ (38 bytes) () 09/17/2010 postreply 13:22:12

• http://seekingalpha.com/author/macro-man/followers/c -marketreflections- ♂ (52 bytes) () 09/17/2010 postreply 13:45:58

• 秦之夏：直观思维，某种意义就是只进行一次虚拟决策博弈的人，并对结果凭感觉修正的结果 -marketreflections- ♂ (1889 bytes) () 09/17/2010 postreply 14:59:08

• 热力学第三定律：大家都一样，没有任何混乱度，体系的熵为零，就像物理世界中绝对零度熵值为零一样 -marketreflections- ♂ (6552 bytes) () 09/17/2010 postreply 15:16:54

• 理论物理的学习总结概要（1）　超级赛亚人 -marketreflections- ♂ (4241 bytes) () 09/18/2010 postreply 16:26:38

• 过水断面上充满了液流质点，每个液流质点的单位势能和单位动能都相等。 ..... 只要 中有一个不等于零，流动就是有旋运动 -marketreflections- ♂ (2119 bytes) () 09/18/2010 postreply 16:37:19

• 作用于各质点的外力与虚加于各质点的惯性力组成一平衡力系,从而这些力的矢量和等于零：过水断面上充满了液流质点，每个液流质点的单位势 -marketreflections- ♂ (467 bytes) () 09/18/2010 postreply 16:52:46

• 采用欧拉法描述流体的流动，常常比采用拉格朗日法优越 -marketreflections- ♂ (511 bytes) () 09/18/2010 postreply 17:09:15

• 期望( 力, expecting 套利)中主要是信息，能力：理性人假设同样信息反映一致 -marketreflections- ♂ (980 bytes) () 09/18/2010 postreply 17:22:02

• 人类经济系统:系统內单元数目足够大时整体体现出流体的性质 -marketreflections- ♂ (1198 bytes) () 09/18/2010 postreply 18:04:34

• Michael Pettis's Blog 郎咸平：汇率大战二阶段即将开始 中国可能继续惨败 -marketreflections- ♂ (19 bytes) () 09/22/2010 postreply 09:29:18

• 科大物理好图 势能函数值依赖于给定时刻粒子的位置这一点说明：任何一个粒子位置的改变都会马上对其他所有粒子产生影响 -marketreflections- ♂ (1619 bytes) () 09/18/2010 postreply 20:08:36

• Extreme sport FX-devaluation -marketreflections- ♂ (4127 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 08:30:39

• http://www.douban.com/people/geekonomics/ -marketreflections- ♂ (41 bytes) () 09/14/2010 postreply 13:11:16

• 物理好图： 缓变要求，参数变化时间远大于回旋运动周期 二体问题 开普勒问题 花粉颗粒在液体中的布朗运动 -marketreflections- ♂ (27080 bytes) () 09/20/2010 postreply 08:53:47

• 物理好图： 一维保守系统不可能出现混沌 -marketreflections- ♂ (200 bytes) () 09/20/2010 postreply 08:57:48

• 鞅是随机过程的一种，它的显著特点是未来的期望等于现在 -marketreflections- ♂ (52 bytes) () 09/22/2010 postreply 14:32:52

• 这类力学的特征是牛顿质点运动概念的延拓;这类力学的特征概念是物质与场的相互作用和运动 -marketreflections- ♂ (452 bytes) () 09/20/2010 postreply 12:23:44

• HarryWanger, appl zerohedge -marketreflections- ♂ (11 bytes) () 09/20/2010 postreply 13:00:22

• short cover rally, gov't & banks (图) -marketreflections- ♂ (3631 bytes) () 09/21/2010 postreply 09:34:48

• usd s&p500 german us 10 yr spread (图) -marketreflections- ♂ (6675 bytes) () 09/22/2010 postreply 08:37:50

• “Agreeing to Disagree”：直到几次往返之后我发现你仍然坚持意大利队，那我只好认为你刚刚从未来穿越回来，于是我 -marketreflections- ♂ (13967 bytes) () 09/14/2010 postreply 13:49:42

• 黑天鹅=扁桃体区杏仁核,坏比好重要 -marketreflections- ♂ (4259 bytes) () 09/14/2010 postreply 14:12:51

• 人类倾向于过分关注不寻常的事 -marketreflections- ♂ (245 bytes) () 09/14/2010 postreply 15:03:02

• 李敖说思想家不应该得胃癌死，因为胃癌很多都是生气气出来的 -marketreflections- ♂ (4756 bytes) () 09/14/2010 postreply 15:18:24

• 黑天鹅 has to be full-figured, close to 完备的逻辑系统 -marketreflections- ♂ (1556 bytes) () 09/14/2010 postreply 14:20:25

• 基辛格;university politics are so vicious precisely because the sta -marketreflections- ♂ (143 bytes) () 09/14/2010 postreply 14:27:04

• “帕斯卡的赌博”（Pascal’s wager）:黑天鹅 being discounted -marketreflections- ♂ (583 bytes) () 09/14/2010 postreply 14:54:05

• 科研中我们经常对那些获得了极高能量的电子或者质子感兴趣，它们所占比例很少，堪称是带电粒子中的 outliers -marketreflections- ♂ (402 bytes) () 09/14/2010 postreply 15:00:36

• 原子内：”位置“不是传统定义，Peter R. Orszag,人体系：not a number, but a range -marketreflections- ♂ (27 bytes) () 09/15/2010 postreply 20:50:17

• s2trading.blogspot.com/ must read -marketreflections- ♂ (80 bytes) () 09/13/2010 postreply 17:33:24

• 刘煜辉 量化宽松货币政策所释放的货币和信用跑不到真实经济里面去，都跑到哪里去了呢？ -marketreflections- ♂ (3109 bytes) () 09/11/2010 postreply 07:44:59

• 哈耶克：过度的货币和信贷扩张之后，企业和家庭对于长期利率的预期极低，甚至是负利率，只有投资在一些在遥远的未来才有回报的项目，才能 -marketreflections- ♂ (3809 bytes) () 09/11/2010 postreply 07:51:07

• 3rd derivatives;The farther prices are pushed away from their tr -marketreflections- ♂ (2210 bytes) () 09/11/2010 postreply 08:51:35

• Russell Napier's ：it is not economy, stupid (图) -marketreflections- ♂ (6150 bytes) () 09/15/2010 postreply 11:09:30

• blog.afraidtotrade.com ：The Three Hard Rules of Elliott Wave The -marketreflections- ♂ (4664 bytes) () 09/15/2010 postreply 12:06:05

• discounting: have to be monetized bet -marketreflections- ♂ (334 bytes) () 09/15/2010 postreply 13:01:40

• http://dshort.com/ must read -marketreflections- ♂ (18 bytes) () 09/15/2010 postreply 17:50:17

• Mike Mansfield： "Slow And Methodical March Towards A Double Dip" -marketreflections- ♂ (2766 bytes) () 09/15/2010 postreply 21:06:14

• 阿里巴巴7月淘宝CPI指数也得出中国经济要由热转冷的结论 -marketreflections- ♂ (43 bytes) () 09/15/2010 postreply 21:15:02

• Here Is Why The ISM Will Drop Below 50 In The Coming Months -marketreflections- ♂ (8437 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 09:16:45

• Once those viable credit worth borrowers have been routed with f -marketreflections- ♂ (1659 bytes) () 09/16/2010 postreply 09:37:19

• 刘煜辉 从货币内生性论直接融资对货币供应量的影响 -marketreflections- ♂ (5167 bytes) () 09/30/2010 postreply 10:35:21

• 每年世界经济的增长如按照5%计算，六十万亿美元的市场总量每年的增长额就是三万亿美元。如果刨除各国国内的自我消费，表现在国际贸易上 -marketreflections- ♂ (4490 bytes) () 09/30/2010 postreply 10:46:31

• 李迅雷 economist 过去十年PPI跑赢CPI、资产价格涨幅高于商品价格的局面将随之逆转，服务类价格，尤其是交通通讯、文化 -marketreflections- ♂ (8812 bytes) () 09/30/2010 postreply 13:51:24

• 石齐平：1996年，美国因为通货膨胀压力转而开始加息，同时IT革命也推动美国经济加速，美元止跌回升。 -marketreflections- ♂ (3397 bytes) () 10/02/2010 postreply 18:51:35

• 石齐平：日元曾迫于压力升值而导致经济衰退 -marketreflections- ♂ (1368 bytes) () 10/02/2010 postreply 18:57:12

• 1991年 日本泡沫破 新经济条件下美国经济周期 知识要素的边际收益递增为美国经济增长提供了强大的内在动力 -marketreflections- ♂ (12544 bytes) () 10/02/2010 postreply 19:25:03

• 吴敬琏：，“垂而不死”，原因就是在19世纪末期，西方国家的经济增长模式发生根本性改变，主要是依靠技术进步来提高的。由此就产生了一 -marketreflections- ♂ (10000 bytes) () 10/02/2010 postreply 19:38:02

• 吴敬琏 十三大提出，政府调节市场，市场引导企业 -marketreflections- ♂ (4364 bytes) () 10/02/2010 postreply 19:41:44

• 中国政府是自己印钞票，而不是像西方那样一定要问银行借 -marketreflections- ♂ (1515 bytes) () 10/06/2010 postreply 13:38:26

• 第二届中美经济学家颐和园对话 -marketreflections- ♂ (81460 bytes) () 10/02/2010 postreply 19:53:43

• 人民币国际化分结算,投资.储备三阶段 -marketreflections- ♂ (2908 bytes) () 10/02/2010 postreply 19:30:04

• 安德森的意见 -marketreflections- ♂ (57 bytes) () 10/03/2010 postreply 07:26:45

• But the dirty great fly in the ointment is the current sentiment -marketreflections- ♂ (3917 bytes) () 09/09/2010 postreply 15:22:20

• businessinsider.com/category/markets must read -marketreflections- ♂ (47 bytes) () 09/09/2010 postreply 13:57:05

• 情绪(拉扎勒斯理论) like VXX volatile and easily revert to mean -marketreflections- ♂ (3760 bytes) () 09/09/2010 postreply 14:03:28

• 弗洛伊德： 情绪 " 是一个欲表露的源于本能的心理能量的释放过程 " -marketreflections- ♂ (1616 bytes) () 09/09/2010 postreply 16:01:11

• 杨烨：下次遇到相同或相类似的刺激时，信号通过这些通道会更迅速，使过去的意识再现：这就是记忆 -marketreflections- ♂ (33973 bytes) () 09/10/2010 postreply 12:58:36

• [PDF] 生命科学学院2007级入学论文选集：丘觉类似于物理学中的矢量 -marketreflections- ♂ (340 bytes) () 09/10/2010 postreply 13:25:17

• 原理心理学创始人 -marketreflections- ♂ (37 bytes) () 09/10/2010 postreply 15:06:01

• 人脑和电脑不同。电脑的硬件是固定的，改变的只是信号；而人脑的信号则要简单得多。人脑的“硬件”虽说也是固定的，但却具有生长性，在成 -marketreflections- ♂ (5669 bytes) () 09/10/2010 postreply 15:45:10

• 平衡和自由。前者是实物质的目标，也是实物质凝聚的原因，后者是场物质的目标 -marketreflections- ♂ (5165 bytes) () 09/10/2010 postreply 15:53:27

• 目前人们发现在高能量状态下，弱力、电磁力和强核力具有同样的强度，只是无法包容引力。在低能量状态下，三种力的对称性发生破缺而表现不 -marketreflections- ♂ (28154 bytes) () 09/10/2010 postreply 16:12:18

• 高能状态下对称性高，由高能状态到低能时必然对称性要变低 -marketreflections- ♂ (1641 bytes) () 09/10/2010 postreply 16:21:37

• 卢昌海：从对称性破缺到物质的起源 -marketreflections- ♂ (5940 bytes) () 09/10/2010 postreply 16:29:30

• 古大脑依靠生物钟的母钟而发挥功能，新大脑依靠刺激发挥功能 -marketreflections- ♂ (463 bytes) () 09/12/2010 postreply 08:49:30

• Jill Bolte Taylor's stroke of insight -marketreflections- ♂ (76 bytes) () 09/12/2010 postreply 17:41:21

• 刺激导致记块的产生，记块在大脑里存储在神经细胞膜上，并以链的形式存在，这种链一般是糖链或脂肪链 -marketreflections- ♂ (553 bytes) () 09/12/2010 postreply 08:53:54

• 全集然文明：古盘】 我个人认为是前世今生的意识库，只能潜意识使用的，记录左右脑发生过的影像深刻的事情与兴趣爱好有关的以及能理解的 -marketreflections- ♂ (39559 bytes) () 09/12/2010 postreply 09:11:31

• 【全集然文明】官方博客 -marketreflections- ♂ (31 bytes) () 09/12/2010 postreply 09:15:14

• 弗洛伊德: 情绪的意识性质(属于显意识)使得压抑(属于潜意识，无意识,下意识)不能为意识所操纵 (图) -marketreflections- ♂ (6088 bytes) () 09/09/2010 postreply 16:19:25

• 大腦皮質負責許多「高等」的認知功能，像是語言以及訊息處理 -marketreflections- ♂ (54 bytes) () 09/07/2010 postreply 09:58:53

• 们脑中下意识的部分被称作主观思想，因为它既不做出决策，也不支配、命令。与其说它是统治者还不如说它是自由人。它的本性就是去做交待它 -marketreflections- ♂ (3390 bytes) () 09/07/2010 postreply 10:02:13

• ：“如果能把我们的视觉神经末稍连接到耳朵上，把听觉神经末梢连接到眼睛上，那么我们就会听到闪电而看到雷声，听到指挥家的动作而看到交 -marketreflections- ♂ (3376 bytes) () 09/07/2010 postreply 10:07:36

• 朗达·拜恩（Rhonda Byrne）：《自然规律;心想事成的机密》 -marketreflections- ♂ (912 bytes) () 09/07/2010 postreply 10:23:12

• Mike Whitney ：EU banks and other financial institutions are pres -marketreflections- ♂ (4960 bytes) () 09/07/2010 postreply 08:16:36

• On Tuesday, Portugal's 10-year debt yield spread hit its widest -marketreflections- ♂ (6413 bytes) () 09/07/2010 postreply 08:22:50

• Roubini on Market Risks, Economy -marketreflections- ♂ (55 bytes) () 09/03/2010 postreply 10:53:44

• 市场反应的特征时间同信息到达的间隔时间, former > latter -marketreflections- ♂ (101 bytes) () 09/02/2010 postreply 06:38:19

• 复杂系统与随机系统的时间性差异 -marketreflections- ♂ (1900 bytes) () 09/02/2010 postreply 13:39:06

• 市场反应的特征时间－－我们将其表示为m,以及信息到达的平均时间n。如果m要比n小，则系统可以迅速达到均衡，我们也就可以使用均衡定 -marketreflections- ♂ (380 bytes) () 12/30/2010 postreply 18:12:57

• 意识是一种高能波 质量守恒，能量守恒，人的大脑是物质，里面储存有能量>,思维是物质的运动的一种形式,意识是思维的结果,而储存起来 -marketreflections- ♂ (3964 bytes) () 09/01/2010 postreply 10:57:20

• http://www.benzinga.com/users/tradermark typical ST money -marketreflections- ♂ (206 bytes) () 09/01/2010 postreply 15:32:44

• http://econintersect.com must read econ release -marketreflections- ♂ (41 bytes) () 09/01/2010 postreply 16:02:12

• www.zacks.com Dirk van Dijk, must read econ release -marketreflections- ♂ (64 bytes) () 09/02/2010 postreply 09:30:17

• http://dailycapitalist.com/, must read econ release -marketreflections- ♂ (2246 bytes) () 09/03/2010 postreply 11:46:13

• by an alternate measure, employment is improving more rapidly th -marketreflections- ♂ (1034 bytes) () 09/05/2010 postreply 08:38:11

• economistsview.typepad.com -marketreflections- ♂ (123 bytes) () 09/05/2010 postreply 08:47:57

• www.calculatedriskblog.com/ -marketreflections- ♂ (83 bytes) () 09/05/2010 postreply 08:50:51

• www.dailymarkets.com Dirk van Dijk, must read econ release -marketreflections- ♂ (77 bytes) () 09/06/2010 postreply 16:24:24

• Robert Johnson must read econ release The iPad Economy -marketreflections- ♂ (4169 bytes) () 09/06/2010 postreply 16:46:25

• www.dailyfx.com/ Michael Wright (图) -marketreflections- ♂ (402 bytes) () 12/01/2010 postreply 06:11:32

• 小岛上的长春80后：小评刘军洛的美元强势论 (图) -marketreflections- ♂ (20053 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 10:21:28

• 小岛上的长春80后：三评刘军洛的美元强势论 (图) -marketreflections- ♂ (14779 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 10:42:49

• 海宁的马甲 2010年5月2日到2011年6月13日，是13个月的震荡下跌期。 -marketreflections- ♂ (1074 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 10:49:49

• 小岛上的长春80后：四评刘军洛的美元强势论 -marketreflections- ♂ (20342 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 11:06:02

• 小岛上的长春80后(2)：再评刘军洛的美元强势论 -marketreflections- ♂ (31046 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 10:36:46

• 欧洲区企业负债总额相当于该区域年度GDP的95%；相比之下，美国企业负债占该国GDP比例则仅为50% -marketreflections- ♂ (8571 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 11:17:32

• 美國居民低儲蓄率、家計部門債務已高達10.45兆美元，且不動產占家庭財富比重高達6成以上 -marketreflections- ♂ (2688 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 11:20:41

• 叶檀：房地产周转率上升可以刺激货币增长，既产生通胀预期，又产生虚幻的财富效应通过抵押贷款增加消费,考虑到上百万亿美元的衍生品市场 -marketreflections- ♂ (3216 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 11:27:19

• 许沂光投资通讯 美国企业负债新高 2010年8月6日Rocky Vega列举的数据指出：美国金融业以外的企业2010年第一季负债 -marketreflections- ♂ (338 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 11:35:26

• http://symmetrycapital.net -marketreflections- ♂ (49 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 11:53:02

• 2010年5月3日 ... 據IMF一項研究指出，美國企業負債比率偏高，亦可能為造成美國金融風暴惡化原因之一。因美國之租稅制度， -marketreflections- ♂ (949 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 12:04:56

• 量子猫：复杂一点的视觉信号（经验）的确是由简单的视觉信号（经验）通过刺激 相应神经元以突触连接的方式整合而成的。心理学或神经科学 -marketreflections- ♂ (10092 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 13:33:42

• 量子猫：黎曼内在外化,规范场就是内在外化（人造场，也是虚拟经济） -marketreflections- ♂ (6082 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 13:55:48

• TA：神经传导物质类似交易员的资金，负责信息的传导（不完全是信息或能量本身），有自己的势场，周期性的积累和释放 -marketreflections- ♂ (404 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 14:01:41

• 量子猫blog -marketreflections- ♂ (4968 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 14:20:18

• 量子猫：“开普勒力的减少，和离太阳的距离的平方成反比” -marketreflections- ♂ (2641 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 14:36:07

• 量子猫：化学过程主要是电磁场作用，而不是牛顿力学, except for 神经传导物质 -marketreflections- ♂ (2105 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 14:40:57

• 量子猫：杨俊超的博客 -marketreflections- ♂ (53 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 14:48:48

• 井底望天：german and japan -marketreflections- ♂ (5927 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 15:12:33

• 预期:政权是暴力的，市场是契约的。一个靠威逼，一个靠利诱规范个人行为， -marketreflections- ♂ (3699 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 15:23:12

• 全民选举只是手段，监督和制衡才是目的 -marketreflections- ♂ (2693 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 15:51:06

• 美国政治制度悲惨性的破产：囚徒困境。需要很大的自省能力和自绝的决心，才可以走出 -marketreflections- ♂ (4432 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 15:58:13

• 西方国家，主要是美国的经济实业家和经济学家，才把美元变成了真正的虚拟财富，它活了，会自动的膨胀，和缩水。随着它的“活化”，人们就 -marketreflections- ♂ (6368 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 17:25:46

• 实物经济和虚拟经济：实体物质和虚物质(能量或波)。现代虚拟金融经济=信贷+预期（贪婪和恐惧） -marketreflections- ♂ (6833 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 17:31:33

• 的大部分虚物质(能量）,必须附着在实体物质的体系之内，这部分虚物质，在物理上称为“保守场” -marketreflections- ♂ (1248 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 18:13:07

• Federal deficit spending vs out gap ：The fact that this is being -marketreflections- ♂ (7824 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 18:27:30

• 经系统的信号传递是依赖化学物质还是通过电的传递 -marketreflections- ♂ (6420 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 08:10:16

• 大脑化学物质水平 vs 人行为 -marketreflections- ♂ (1013 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 08:19:44

• 如果大脑的5个部分都朝你怒吼，这时强迫症就到了最恶劣的状态 -marketreflections- ♂ (27571 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 08:35:52

• 额眶部皮质会告诉我们到底哪里出错了，我们何时要避免什么事情，它就像人脑中一种预警系统。而对强迫症患者来说，额眶部皮质就像是个超时 -marketreflections- ♂ (282 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 08:49:36

• Battling the Lizard Brain：Would you play that game? Hopefully no -marketreflections- ♂ (1766 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 09:53:54

• Pedro De Noronha：use only tangible book equity the 6 percent of -marketreflections- ♂ (3429 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 05:53:22

• 陈思进：美国7000万“婴儿潮”中，约占三分之一的人没有任何退休储蓄，在未来退休的年月里，他们唯一能做的就是兑现房产 -marketreflections- ♂ (6151 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 06:03:19

• 货币政策对经济起不到作用，同经济运作无关了，这也就是达到了所谓的“流动性陷阱” -marketreflections- ♂ (3204 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 09:04:46

• Steve Major of HSBC We highly recommend -marketreflections- ♂ (8077 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 11:26:54

• private sector borrowing has been contracting at a faster rate t -marketreflections- ♂ (5669 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 11:56:06

• disposable personal income (DPI)+wealth effect: driving consumpt -marketreflections- ♂ (2452 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 12:38:15

• Steven Hansen must read -marketreflections- ♂ (157 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 12:53:37

• Yen：Daniel Katzive global benchmarks yields near or at record lo -marketreflections- ♂ (3899 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 14:38:34

• Bob Farrell：long term or secular nature ,short-term volatility ( -marketreflections- ♂ (5582 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 10:58:27

• Martin Wolf, Bob Farrell must read daily -marketreflections- ♂ (7175 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 15:41:50

• www.guardian.co.uk/world/richard-adams-blog -marketreflections- ♂ (104 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 15:49:16

• Martin Wolf：the endgame for the global imbalances -marketreflections- ♂ (2767 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 16:05:58

• David Rosenberg：must read daily "bond bubble" wsj made -marketreflections- ♂ (21260 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 16:20:34

• Aleph Blog ：Martin Wolf, Quantitative easing has lowered rates i -marketreflections- ♂ (2582 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 16:31:38

• http://alephblog.com/,Queasing over Quantitative Easing, Part IV -marketreflections- ♂ (55666 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 16:37:28

• John B Lounsbury CFP：After declining by more than 5% in the Grea -marketreflections- ♂ (6294 bytes) () 08/31/2010 postreply 17:59:41

• Tony Jackson：He was too busy partying to inquire -marketreflections- ♂ (4993 bytes) () 08/30/2010 postreply 09:25:30