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Can Bond Markets predict a World War?
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
18:29:51
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Per bloomberg news, the U.S. bond market crash is spreading.
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
18:50:38
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Does it make sense to you?
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
18:59:38
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I read the news, and it says the collapse in bonds now ranks
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
19:02:16
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among the worst market crashes in history.
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
19:02:46
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Crash! That’s pretty eye-catching.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:08:29
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Is it due to inflationary and high interest rate?
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
19:09:26
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U.S.bonds are U.S. backed.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:06:12
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BlackRock warns the worst US bond rout in history is far
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
19:11:22
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from over...
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
19:12:40
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We have to ask this basic question: why do we buy
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:16:15
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U.S. savings bonds?
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:17:02
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For steady returns?
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
19:33:54
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And Americans tend to have faith in America.
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renqiulan -
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10/12/2023
09:35:48
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The bond market broke down after FOMC meeting, per JPMorgan
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
19:06:55
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When America sneezes, the world catches cold. Does the world
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:12:54
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catch cold? If not, why not?
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:14:02
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You wanna see the world in chaos?
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
19:19:53
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From history I have learned one thing. There's something
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:28:18
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called "a rainbow of chaos." Chaos is part and parcel of
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:30:13
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order. Let's check if we're living in this rainbow.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:31:37
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Disorder and unpredictability? We are in danger then.
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
19:44:12
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We are always in danger of some kind. But then,
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:49:09
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danger and opportunity are yin and yang.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:49:46
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危机 = 危险+ 机遇
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
19:53:30
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We Americans are born to take risks.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:58:19
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Actually, we humans are born to take...
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
20:05:54
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human enough.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
20:06:29
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Bravo !
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
20:16:20
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Encore!
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
17:06:04
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A rise in the 10 year-Treasury yield reflects a
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renqiulan -
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10/12/2023
09:42:14
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more optimistic view of our economy going forward.
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renqiulan -
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10/12/2023
09:44:11
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Do we still have faith in America? Do we still have faith in
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:19:28
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ourselves? Right now, we are hearing a lot of noise---the
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:21:27
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noise of a roller coaster. It happened before. It's
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:23:07
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happening now. It'll happen again.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:24:18
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Can you please elaborate on what you mean by "the noise"?
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
19:36:05
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The noise is the random, unwanted variation or fluctuation
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:46:42
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that interferes with the signal.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:47:15
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The signal is the meaningful information that
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:47:48
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you're actually trying to detect.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:48:20
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噪音,干扰人的正确判断。
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
19:52:17
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盈盈,你问得棒,太感谢了!胆敢一问,对茅盾的《子夜》,觉得甚样呢?
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:57:30
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秋兰读过茅盾的《子夜》?!真是被惊到了!非常棒的的联想。茅盾笔下描写了各种复杂的社会矛盾。确实和当前时政有某些类似之处。
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
20:03:43
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茅盾的《子夜》,很有左拉《金钱》的影子。茅盾写得最好的,个人觉得是《腐蚀》,其次是《春蚕》。
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
20:22:22
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我只读过茅盾的短篇。秋兰,你读过的中文书,可能比很多中国人还多。佩服!
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
20:27:13
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让我第一时间摘掉高帽子。自问爱书,爱读书,虽然读得少。
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
21:07:01
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噗~~高帽子?你也知道这个词?LOL
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/11/2023
07:06:54
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小说里有不少生活常用词汇,算是学了点点滴滴。
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
17:00:14
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又看了一遍你的帖子。目前美国债券市场崩盘,会重演过去的历史,像以前一样成为战争的预兆吗?
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
20:09:28
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盈盈,你的直觉认为会吗?
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
20:18:47
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俄乌战争,和以色列现在的局势,确实让人不安。。但我仍愿意祈祷世界和平。。
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
20:21:56
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在日常生活里,个人感觉不到有普遍性的恐慌。
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
21:04:26
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同意
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/11/2023
07:07:16
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当然,“于无声处听惊雷”,不能排除个別人士先知先觉,先天下之优而忧的。
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
17:03:44
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A great book review with intriguing facts and deep thoughts!
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
19:39:48
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Very impressive fact: a Titanic, not once but twice!
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
19:43:04
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Will we get a 3rd one?!
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
19:43:37
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As long as we don't rest on our laurels, we'll be OK.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
20:13:52
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RMS Titanic sank because of its owner's hubris.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
20:15:58
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Sounds good.
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
20:31:04
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...
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
17:08:56
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Hi, 小西! It is a fact that history and money mix.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
19:53:59
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Hi, 秋兰!Yes, money is anywhere and anytime in history :)
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
20:02:50
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Whenever we add value to something, we also expect
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
17:13:08
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some profit in return.
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
17:13:37
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Shells could be money, if you will. Money is currency.
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
17:15:38
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Currency is for exchange, which is for trade. No trade,
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
17:17:43
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no modern civilization. History is progress toward
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
17:18:48
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modern civilization, hopefully.
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
17:19:18
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geological fault lines VS geopolitical fault lines is like
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
19:49:58
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A super-earthquake VS A world war. Both make sense.
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
19:52:17
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Yes, analogically speaking.
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
17:19:57
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Smart suggestions: if the market smells like roses when
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
19:55:20
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it's not supposed to. Be a cat, so as to smell a rat.
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
19:56:36
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谢谢秋兰分享好文好建议!
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
19:57:35
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有小西你这位好读者,我惭愧自己不是个好作者。当然,因为不是个好作者,所以更要作下去。业精于勤嘛!
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
20:02:31
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哈哈哈,秋兰小心发胖,因为谦虚使人发月半 :)从盈盈那儿学来的,现学现用,哈哈哈。
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
20:05:31
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Getting fat and lazy? No way. Hey, I'm a runner.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
20:07:47
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I may not run fast, but I keep running.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
20:08:58
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I beat the legendary hare lately. Yeah!
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
20:09:29
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哈哈,中国有龟兔赛跑的故事,秋兰读过吗?原来你是那位胜利者。LOL
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
20:14:20
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这方面的“国情”,不大熟悉。只知道澳门逸园赛狗,用的是电兔。较喜欢卖电池广告的那个打鼓的电兔。
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
21:17:58
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卡哇伊~~
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/11/2023
07:09:45
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Awsome, congratulations!
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
20:14:43
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哈哈。晚安小西,晚安秋兰,晚安美坛 ~ ~
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
20:17:25
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盈盈辛苦了,晚安, sweet dreams ~ ~ ~
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
20:23:30
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盈盈晚安!你的勤奋,令我佩服不已。
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
21:09:43
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谢谢楼上二位。酒逢知己千杯少。不辛苦。my pleasure ~~
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/11/2023
07:08:35
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Good for you!
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
20:10:35
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"Smell a rat." Pun intended. Haha!
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
20:03:24
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Hahaha, pun is so much fun!
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
20:08:50
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You're rhyming.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
20:10:11
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You were too: a cat smells a rat!
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CBA7 -
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10/10/2023
20:18:08
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Haha! You can say that again.
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
17:24:02
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Olfaction helps.
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
17:23:27
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If something is too good to be true, it probably is.
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
17:21:11
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A scam is a rat wearing perfume.
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
17:27:10
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A bigger earthquake in financial system may lead to a war?
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方外居士 -
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10/10/2023
20:12:51
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That's my question too.
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
20:19:42
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Time will tell. Thank you, 方外居士!
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
21:21:51
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小西,thanks for providing me with food for thought! Goodnight.
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renqiulan -
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10/10/2023
21:25:40
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Good morning, 秋兰, we're learning a lot from you. Thank you!
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CBA7 -
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10/11/2023
07:18:42
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小西, vice versa.
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
19:40:57
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I am reading and it would take me a while :-)
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Oona -
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10/11/2023
06:09:01
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我昨天也是反复看了几遍。不好懂。秋兰文章,深邃,有文化底蕴。:)
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/11/2023
07:11:33
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谢谢盈盈!文化底蕴谈不上,拙文还有无限的改进空间。
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
16:36:22
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Oona, you are truly appreciated!
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
16:31:02
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I agree with you. I invest significant percentage on gold..
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唐宋韵 -
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10/11/2023
09:22:48
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Seize the day. Seize the golden opportunity. Hi, 唐宋韵!
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renqiulan -
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10/11/2023
16:39:35
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APAD - Food related, of course.
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waterfowl -
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10/10/2023
16:25:38
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Prime rib and lobster tail
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永远老李 -
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10/10/2023
16:56:40
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With a mug of beer, and we have the Holy Trinity.
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waterfowl -
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10/10/2023
17:03:40
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Oh man, my doctor strongly oppose red meat.
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方外居士 -
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10/10/2023
17:00:53
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But I still take it once in a while! Of course behind the Dr
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方外居士 -
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10/10/2023
17:02:11
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一方红脯黑丝边, 料点依偎身上前。 不是医生推荐菜, 馋虫抗命要开筵。
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方外居士 -
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10/10/2023
19:39:18
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I see plenty of doctors at steak restaurants : )
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waterfowl -
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10/10/2023
19:50:26
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I think they told patients no red meat...
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waterfowl -
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10/10/2023
20:38:45
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Show him this post : )
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waterfowl -
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10/10/2023
17:02:40
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Tell him at least it’s food.
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7grizzly -
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10/10/2023
17:20:34
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有道理的,人类进化一大重要因素是吃熟食,1是食物的安全性大大提高,2是煮熟食物会让某些难以吸收的大分子降解变得更容易吸收
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移花接木 -
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10/10/2023
19:01:06
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或许在医药发达之前,人类寿命智力大幅提高都与此有关,虽然过度烹调会破坏营养
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移花接木 -
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10/10/2023
19:02:45
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My secret to weight loss. Would like it medium rare though.
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7grizzly -
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10/10/2023
17:16:23
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medium well, for me. :)
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
18:17:28
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【美坛综艺秀】《腰鼓舞》片段回放+《霸王别姬》伴舞歌曲同唱
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杰克_JK -
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10/10/2023
15:47:01
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哇!杰克兄每次出手都是大片。有古诗,有好歌,有腰鼓舞,有现场表演照片,更有英文。好棒!
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
16:00:25
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看现场照片,表演者们,正当年。有活力,有范儿。赞赞赞~ ~ ~
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
16:04:39
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》多谢美言鼓励!敬礼致敬。美女布置的作业,那哪能不绞尽脑汁认真的完成呢!
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杰克_JK -
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10/10/2023
16:07:57
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多谢捧场。常来美坛玩。:)
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盈盈一笑间 -
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10/10/2023
18:11:29
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Thanks for sharing! So talented!
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方外居士 -
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10/10/2023
16:58:37
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【美坛综艺秀】饮食男女的男欢女爱
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waterfowl -
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10/10/2023
11:43:02
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It’s art, not food. Looks good, eat,hurt!
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方外居士 -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
12:26:40
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确实。帖子内容很艺术。换个标题会不会更搭,比如《唯美食与爱不可辜负》?
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盈盈一笑间 -
♀
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
15:33:14
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哈哈,可惜辜负美食和辜负爱的大有人在。我比较现实。 : )
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
16:08:49
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我有切身体会:一旦在沙发上管不住嘴巴,体重就会直线上升!
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方外居士 -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
16:38:01
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长久窝在沙发上也可能会辜负爱的,冷落佳人。 : )
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
16:40:23
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哈哈哈,没少挨过骂,可还是管不住嘴!
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方外居士 -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
16:55:48
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We're all alike in this regard. : )
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
17:04:45
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谢谢居士
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
16:26:42
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跟一个李安的电影《饮食男女》中我最喜欢的桥段,百看不厌
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盈盈一笑间 -
♀
(194 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
15:34:36
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好电影!
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
16:09:52
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这样精致的美食,值得开一瓶红酒。。哦,不,吃海鲜,应该配白葡萄酒。。
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盈盈一笑间 -
♀
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
15:37:39
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APAD: Absolute power corrupts absolutely
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移花接木 -
♂
(10675 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
07:47:51
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占位点赞,回头细看~~
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盈盈一笑间 -
♀
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
08:11:51
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Proven true time and again, unfortunately.
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
08:47:51
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That said, I wouldn't mind being corrupted once or twice :-)
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7grizzly -
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
08:59:37
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Amen to that. : )
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
09:04:02
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it becomes unstoppable after the 1st time,
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移花接木 -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
09:58:15
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骑虎难下? Tiger riding might not be as fun as I think :-)
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7grizzly -
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
10:14:50
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Or you cannt enjoy enough
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移花接木 -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
12:01:14
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好帖子。像是一篇迷你小论文。漂亮!
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盈盈一笑间 -
♀
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()
10/10/2023
10:02:09
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Thanks for sharing, great proverb!
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方外居士 -
♂
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10/10/2023
10:19:47
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是的,所以权力必须分散,相互牵制。
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Oona -
♀
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
13:39:47
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+1 不过我就是好奇中国长达2000年的封建时代,咋就没出个思想家想到这一点呢?
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盈盈一笑间 -
♀
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
15:35:31
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中国封建2K年+儒学愚民才延续了大一统的中央集权帝国,否则可能就是中洲与欧洲一样同宗的多个小国,你倾向哪一种?
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移花接木 -
♂
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()
10/10/2023
16:40:00
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如果从人本的角度,可能倾向于多个小国保留自己的各种不同的文化。
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Oona -
♀
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()
10/10/2023
17:24:42
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站这里。:)
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盈盈一笑间 -
♀
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
17:36:34
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我在看这个帖子“哈马斯,一个把“恐袭”作成“生意”的组织”,不会是你写的吧?:)
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盈盈一笑间 -
♀
(220 bytes)
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10/10/2023
17:37:38
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我可懒得码这么多字,我觉得不是所有人都知道哈马斯是什么来头,与法塔赫都是巴勒斯坦内部组织,法塔赫消停后哈马斯崛起
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移花接木 -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
18:49:38
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总得有人传承这门生意。什么主义宗教都是幌子
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移花接木 -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
18:50:26
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冷和平,这个概念听起来很冷血。。是以无辜平民的生命为代价的。。
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盈盈一笑间 -
♀
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
18:55:46
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我也是很奇怪:)
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Oona -
♀
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
17:26:46
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儒学思想根深蒂固,父父子子君君臣臣,灌输思想上的服从,至今仍然如此,我们这些出国后思想才变活得
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移花接木 -
♂
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()
10/10/2023
18:55:55
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human sins curse
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TJKCB -
♀
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
15:57:04
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You hit the bullseye ~ ~
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盈盈一笑间 -
♀
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
16:01:10
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完全赞成。这也是美国立国之根本,国父们的深谋远虑,真是令人高山仰止!
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好個秋 -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/11/2023
11:45:50
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饺子
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waterfowl -
♂
(430 bytes)
()
10/09/2023
17:55:56
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中英文双语诗,加美食。看饿了。:))
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盈盈一笑间 -
♀
(0 bytes)
()
10/09/2023
18:03:34
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夜宵时间到了
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/09/2023
18:06:17
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Yummy!
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方外居士 -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/09/2023
19:58:24
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谢谢居士
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
01:32:07
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这锅贴真棒!我家经常买costco的mandu
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颤音 -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/09/2023
20:24:41
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简单方便又好吃
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
01:31:45
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手工制作的饺子,好吃!考四科家的饺子,接受无能呀。扭腰城里中餐馆自包的冷冻饺子,提供送货上门的服务,很不错。
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盈盈一笑间 -
♀
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
07:04:03
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现在的冷冻饺子质量好多了
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
08:44:27
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Nice, making me wanna have a night snack before going to bed
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godog -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/09/2023
22:30:38
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Need some self control : )
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
01:31:19
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你深夜放毒,然后让大家要学习自控,这样好吗?这样真的好吗?哈哈~
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盈盈一笑间 -
♀
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
07:05:59
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哈哈,被妳看穿了。
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
08:43:06
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The wrap is not very attractive 2 me, I favor hand-rolled
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移花接木 -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
06:17:45
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老鸭目前没掌握这门技术 : )
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
08:46:38
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醋碟里再加点香油,然后来瓣生蒜。
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永远老李 -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
06:55:55
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Perfect!
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
08:44:58
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嗯,好吃不过
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Zhuzitaba -
♂
(173 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
08:53:02
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嗯,好吃不过
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盈盈一笑间 -
♀
(173 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
09:57:20
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嗯,好吃不过
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waterfowl -
♂
(14 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
10:15:10
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嗯,好吃不过
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方外居士 -
♂
(24 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
11:27:03
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Ask, and you shall receive...
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waterfowl -
♂
(202 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
11:37:09
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一样花生几味开, 香醇下酒是良材。 可怜杯满无缘享, 只向屏前抿口腮。
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方外居士 -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
12:03:02
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Haha, I'd like to have a few drinks with you someday.
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
12:10:08
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Cheers!
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方外居士 -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
12:22:41
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Ask, and you shall receive?really?
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盈盈一笑间 -
♀
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
15:36:04
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Won't know until you try
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waterfowl -
♂
(0 bytes)
()
10/10/2023
16:10:37
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