看这里

Notes from a call with Edward Ryan MD, Director of International Infectious Disease at Massachusetts General Hospital:

1       Close to 100% of the positive cases in MA are Omicron.  Delta is almost completely gone from New England.
2       This surge will peak sometime between 1/10 and 1/21 and then begin a quick downhill journey of two to four weeks.
3       We will end up with a 20-50% positivity rate.
4       February will be clean up mode, March will begin to return to "normal"
5       Omicron lives in your nose and upper respiratory area which is what makes it so contagious.  It isn't able to bond with your lungs like the other variants.
6       The increased hospitalizations should be taken with a grain of salt as most of them are secondary admissions (i.e. people coming in for surgery, broken bones, etc. who are tested for COVID)
7       We won't need a booster for omicron because they wouldn't be able to develop one before it's completely gone and we're all going to get it which will give us the immunity we need to get through it.
8       COVID will join the 4 other coronaviruses we deal with that cause the common cold, upper respiratory infections, RSV, etc.  It will become a pediatric disease mainly affecting young children with no immunity.
9       40% of those infected will be asymptomatic
10      Rapid tests are 50-80% sensitive to those with symptoms, only 30-60% sensitive to those without symptoms
11      Contact tracing is worthless because we're all going to get it and there's no way we could keep up with it.
12      We are fighting the last war with COVID and should be pivoting back to normal life, but society isn't quite ready for it yet.
13      There is no need to stay home from work or to be a hermit unless you're immunocompromised or 85 or older, but he does recommend staying away from large gatherings for the next six weeks.
14      Spring/Summer will be really nice!

Overall a great presentation. Lot of good news.

所有跟帖： 

• 怪不得呢， -金米- ♀ (90 bytes) () 01/08/2022 postreply 15:15:30

• 今天满微信都在转这个，看第一遍觉得真好，看第n遍的时候就觉得是编的了。。。 -军大衣- ♀ (41 bytes) () 01/08/2022 postreply 15:46:37

• 我是最容易相信别人的人了， -金米- ♀ (117 bytes) () 01/08/2022 postreply 15:54:16

• 我没去验证。 是一朋友 传的。 -stone_cold_fox- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/08/2022 postreply 15:55:02

• 不必验证吧。就看看真实的数据好了，每一天，因omicron进入icu的病人都比前一天更多 -军大衣- ♀ (1597 bytes) () 01/08/2022 postreply 16:10:50

• 我发所有的帖子， -金米- ♀ (59 bytes) () 01/08/2022 postreply 16:16:49

• 大家都有这个期盼，所以一定会相互谅解 -军大衣- ♀ (124 bytes) () 01/08/2022 postreply 16:19:33

• 理解了，大家都希望疫情快快结束。 -金米- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/08/2022 postreply 16:31:55

• 即使是黎明前的黑暗，也要hold住，隔离的最后两天最难过，好多人都是那时候破功 -zhuangqiushui- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/08/2022 postreply 16:59:02

• 可不，我最近为懈怠的亲友鼓劲就是这么说的，就算早晚要过一遍这病毒 -军大衣- ♀ (149 bytes) () 01/08/2022 postreply 17:12:32

• 有道理，床位是个大问题。我的大老板说要来快点来，反正要过一遍，一副迫不及待的模样。 -Sequoia_CA- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/08/2022 postreply 17:20:36

• 破功会怎样？逃跑？ -aha123- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/08/2022 postreply 18:23:27

• 对，因为打了疫苗了，所以隔离开始不那么严格，减少集中隔离的时间，后面几天就居家隔离，然后总是最后一天没等到核酸结果出来就开始到处 -zhuangqiushui- ♀ (281 bytes) () 01/08/2022 postreply 19:06:03

• 其实这里减少隔离时间（美国也一样），主要是因为缺勤太多 -军大衣- ♀ (122 bytes) () 01/09/2022 postreply 01:24:10

• 我们这改成5天了 -金米- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2022 postreply 05:44:42

• 如今我们还讨论不检测了，，，检测不做，还隔离谁 -军大衣- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2022 postreply 10:46:21

• 我们是隔离酒店不够了，只能这样睁一眼闭一眼了。。 -zhuangqiushui- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2022 postreply 06:10:38