APAD: Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

来源: 7grizzly 于 2023-09-23 07:44:51 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (5493 bytes)

This expression is generally used in order to cast doubt on statistics produced

by somebody a person does not agree with, or to describe how statistics can be

manipulated to support almost any position.

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This was attributed by Mark Twain to Benjamin Disraeli (1804-1881): "There are

three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." It's not clear how much

research either did.

 

Of course, it's humans instead of statistics to blame as practioners, for

expediency (read profit), willfully ignore rare but high-impact events, black

swans a la Nassim Taleb. If the facts do not fit the theory, change the facts.

Models are built, papers published, and text books written, all based on flawed

data.

 

The job for the rest of us is to try to stay a non-sucker.

所有跟帖： 

• A black swan represents an extreme or rare event, -盈盈一笑间- ♀ 给 盈盈一笑间 发送悄悄话 盈盈一笑间 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 08:11:01

• which has potentially severe consequences… -盈盈一笑间- ♀ 给 盈盈一笑间 发送悄悄话 盈盈一笑间 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 08:11:40

• The idea is more popular than the bird :-) -7grizzly- ♀ 给 7grizzly 发送悄悄话 7grizzly 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 08:21:46

• Consider the feelings and well-being of the latter :-) -7grizzly- ♀ 给 7grizzly 发送悄悄话 7grizzly 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 08:25:40

• Biased data lead to biased decision -移花接木- ♂ 给 移花接木 发送悄悄话 移花接木 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 08:14:20

• And collectively, we build a lopsided world :-) -7grizzly- ♀ 给 7grizzly 发送悄悄话 7grizzly 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 08:18:05

• So the world is at a tipping point now -移花接木- ♂ 给 移花接木 发送悄悄话 移花接木 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 09:19:11

• Hasn't it always been? Onto everyone that hath ..., e.g. -7grizzly- ♀ 给 7grizzly 发送悄悄话 7grizzly 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 11:22:43

• 大奸似忠，大诈似信！ -方外居士- ♂ 给 方外居士 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 10:50:44

• 智慧出，有大伪。 -7grizzly- ♀ 给 7grizzly 发送悄悄话 7grizzly 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 11:23:39

• 这个更贴近英文原意。 -方外居士- ♂ 给 方外居士 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 12:54:46

• I agree with the notion that statistics can be manipulated -TJKCB- ♀ 给 TJKCB 发送悄悄话 TJKCB 的博客首页 (994 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 14:30:17

• Statistics are based on the assumption that God toss dice. -方外居士- ♂ 给 方外居士 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 16:37:28

• Fairly. Mark Twain Might be a friend of God, and knows that -方外居士- ♂ 给 方外居士 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 16:39:09

• God does it guarantee the dice is fair. -方外居士- ♂ 给 方外居士 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 16:39:41

• If the facts do not fit the theory, change the facts！？ -66的山梁- ♀ 给 66的山梁 发送悄悄话 66的山梁 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 14:40:15

• At least the last Stanford president did it :-) -7grizzly- ♀ 给 7grizzly 发送悄悄话 7grizzly 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/23/2023 postreply 16:05:35

• Are you saying that big data is nothing, if it‘s flawed：） -暖冬cool夏- ♀ 给 暖冬cool夏 发送悄悄话 暖冬cool夏 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/24/2023 postreply 22:39:25

• It can't capture what has not happened. -7grizzly- ♀ 给 7grizzly 发送悄悄话 7grizzly 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/26/2023 postreply 22:35:30

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