APAD: Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

This expression is generally used in order to cast doubt on statistics produced

by somebody a person does not agree with, or to describe how statistics can be

manipulated to support almost any position.

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This was attributed by Mark Twain to Benjamin Disraeli (1804-1881): "There are

three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." It's not clear how much

research either did.

 

Of course, it's humans instead of statistics to blame as practioners, for

expediency (read profit), willfully ignore rare but high-impact events, black

swans a la Nassim Taleb. If the facts do not fit the theory, change the facts.

Models are built, papers published, and text books written, all based on flawed

data.

 

The job for the rest of us is to try to stay a non-sucker.