The Ebb and Flow of the Pandemic

Like it or not, we humans have been co-existing with deadly pathogens since time immemorial. We win. We lose. We survive. We thrive. We progress. So do our nemeses. That's why we still have nightmares. Actually, we never fail to remind ourselves of some pathogenic specter lurking around. Remember how we couldn't wait to stream the 2011 movie "Contagion" when COVID-19 hit America? We hate the pandemic so much that we love to see it unfolding on the screen. In the face of thrill, resistance is futile.

 

The current pandemic, like its precedents, has promised us a thrill ride, and we are on one. But if history is any guide, we will ride out the pandemic, sooner or later -- hopefully sooner. Charting the courses of past pandemics, we are quite confident to say that the current one will run its course. When it does, it has regressed to the mean. What is regression to the mean? It is a statistical concept indicating that extremities left and right will merge into the middle range. Applied to the prevailing pathogen, COVID will evolve toward a mild form. Warning: regression to the mean takes time. There could be a few more ups and downs before we get there. Yes, we are still on a thrill ride.

 

by renqiulan

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所有跟帖： 

• Most of current COVID+ inpatients in the US are admitted due -妖妖灵- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/04/2023 postreply 20:48:47

• to other symptoms instead of COVID symptoms. -妖妖灵- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/04/2023 postreply 20:49:57

• That makes sense. We're in a flu season, aren't we? -renqiulan- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/04/2023 postreply 22:00:49

• My hunch is that herd immunity is holding up in America. -renqiulan- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/05/2023 postreply 07:49:56

• That‘s right. I think mRNA vaccines are more effective. -妖妖灵- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/05/2023 postreply 14:25:27

• The 1918 flu pandemic provides a good rear view. -renqiulan- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/05/2023 postreply 15:52:21

• 今天中午才学的nemesis现在就认识了：） -妖妖灵- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/04/2023 postreply 21:01:28

• Yes, we always have nemeses. Nature isn't so kind, after all -renqiulan- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/04/2023 postreply 22:05:57

• yes, towards the end the osilation scale's damping, but more -移花接木- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/05/2023 postreply 13:58:18

• rounds is certain. -移花接木- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/05/2023 postreply 13:58:55

• 中国放开太快，放开之前药店都不允许卖退烧药。 -妖妖灵- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/05/2023 postreply 14:23:17

• Being denied free & open information, Chinese people... -renqiulan- ♂ (185 bytes) () 01/05/2023 postreply 15:45:23

• As I said above, we're still on a thrill ride. -renqiulan- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/05/2023 postreply 15:37:16

• wish we don't get stuck in a merry-go-round -移花接木- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/05/2023 postreply 19:35:48

• 不会的，现在的毒力减轻太多了。中国在放开之前把感冒退烧药提前备好，会好很多～ -妖妖灵- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/05/2023 postreply 20:39:08

• 妖妖灵, color me skeptical. -renqiulan- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/05/2023 postreply 20:48:03

• I rather err on the side of caution. Yes, cautious optimism. -renqiulan- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/05/2023 postreply 20:45:35

• 新冠现在全国这么多人感染，虽然有人死亡，但是占百分比应该还是非常低的， 大流行要结束了。 未来会有类感冒的小流行。 -jianchi9090- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/06/2023 postreply 15:54:57

• Let's keep our fingers crossed. -renqiulan- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/06/2023 postreply 17:58:38