China needs America more than America needs China.
…
Today, however ravaged by the pandemic, America remains the world’s largest market.* The Beautiful Country is where China and other export countries compete to unload their products. Competition means that production costs have to be cut as deeply as possible.
Working people in export countries will be bringing home less and less. Consequently, they will have to consume less and less. At the same time, they will also have to save more and more for a rainy day if they can afford to do so.
The downward pressure on the wage comes with the downward pressure on demand. This being the case, a large export country like China has no good reason to invite foreign competition, no matter what and how it says to the contrary in the media.
In the meantime, China is more than willing to take in more foreign asset investment (FAI), hoping that more jobs will be created for its hard-pressed youths in particular. But, FAI cuts both ways. Yes, it may be a stimulus to China's job market. On the flip side, however, FAI will also pump more hot air into China's asset bubble. A bubble economy is no fun when it pops.
Here is a friendly reminder: Every bubble pops, sooner or later, and probably sooner.
China cannot afford to lose America which yields to Beijing huge trade surpluses on top of other benefits such as "tech transfer." That's why Beijing has to take cheap money printed by Washington. This may sound like a leap of faith on China's part, but here is the reality: USD accounts for 61% of the world's currency reserves, compared to RMB's meager share of 2% (International Monetary Fund's 2019 report). See the pie chart below.
The world is struggling with weak demand, day and night. Guess who is smiling?
* The EU is arguably the world's largest market, but it is not a nation. It is a large group of European nations.
相较之下、中国更需要美国
今天，饱受疫情煎熬的美国依然是世上最大市场。* 所有出口国都争相在美市倾销货品。竞争的结果、
出口国的生产者们不免受压减薪，因而直接削弱其消费力；
出口国国內工资的下行压力，直接导致国內需求的下行压力。
在不真正开放国内市场的同时，
外资继续吹大资产泡沫，泡沫就更快会爆破。
不管怎样凸显強国国力，北京还是要倚赖美国市场，
美国印钞，除了藉此大搞疫情福利，增加执政党政治本钱之外，更不愁人民币挑战。人民币确实不是美元对手，如前所述。北京边骂“美帝”，边向“美帝”有增无减地供应相对廉价的消费品。中国自己呢，內需不振，
最后一问：在復甦官话背后，谁在暗笑？
*欧盟或许是世上最大巿场，不过它是代表众邦，本身并非一个国家
---- Lingyang Jiang
