外行解读19万这个数字，曙光就在眼前，只要坚持，完全可控（ZT）

外行解读19万这个数字，曙光就在眼前，只要坚持，完全可控

 

来源: BeyondWind 于 2020-01-24 18:17:34 [档案] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读： 757 次 (5883 bytes)

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论文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1

Key findings

● We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (????????0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing. （有效隔离75%感染者就不至于失控）

● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas. （肯定了中国的工作）

● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand (prediction interval, 132,751 to 273,649). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea. (19万的数字是基于一个不存在的假设，虽然武汉有很多负面的消息，但工作一定是在改进中）

● Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. （封城改变不了这一波感染已经扩散的事实，效果不会立竿见影）

● There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These should be considered when interpreting our findings. （模型就是模型，有很多假设，数据也不全面，所以不该片面解读数字）

所有跟帖： 

• 但愿能停止扩散。否则会影响全世界。 -绿蚁采菊- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/24/2020 postreply 19:17:10

• 老人，病人要仔细 -吾- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/24/2020 postreply 19:24:51