股市上涨下跌预测不难 - 上海大男人 - (137 bytes) (2691 reads) 04/22/2026 08:26:56
Here is the breakdown for the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) over the last 10 full years, plus the current 2026 data.
Historically, the stock market has more "Up" days than "Down" days, but as you'll see in 2022, a year can have more "Down" days and still only lose about 19%, while a year with high "Up" frequency can skyrocket.
SPY Performance: Last 10 Years (2016–2026)
|
Year |
Up Days (%) |
Down Days (%) |
Total Annual Return |
|
2026 (YTD) |
~52.1% |
~47.9% |
+3.20% |
|
2025 |
57.6% |
42.4% |
+16.39% |
|
2024 |
56.7% |
43.3% |
+23.31% |
|
2023 |
54.8% |
45.2% |
+24.23% |
|
2022 |
43.0% |
57.0% |
-19.44% |
|
2021 |
56.7% |
43.3% |
+26.89% |
|
2020 |
57.3% |
42.7% |
+16.26% |
|
2019 |
58.7% |
41.3% |
+28.88% |
|
2018 |
52.2% |
47.8% |
-6.24% |
|
2017 |
56.0% |
44.0% |
+19.42% |
|
2016 |
54.0% |
46.0% |
+9.54% |
Three Key Takeaways
- The "50/50" Illusion: You might notice that even in terrible years like 2018, the ratio of Up vs. Down days is almost equal (52% vs 47%). This is because market crashes often happen in high-intensity clusters, while recoveries are slow "grinds" upward.
- 2022 was the Outlier: It was the only year in the last decade where Down days significantly outnumbered Up days (57% Down). This was the peak of the inflation/interest rate scare.
- 2019 & 2025 Winning Streaks: Both years featured an exceptionally high percentage of Green days (above 57%), which typically correlates with "Low Volatility" bull markets where the index hits multiple all-time highs.
Current 2026 Sentiment
So far, 2026 is looking more like 2016 or 2018—a much tighter battle between buyers and sellers. The return is positive, but the "Up Day" percentage has dropped significantly compared to the "AI Gold Rush" of 2024–2025.
Final Note: If you are tracking this for a "10/10" investment strategy, remember that return is often driven by the magnitude of the days, not just the frequency. A few "-3%" days can wipe out ten "+0.2%" days!
