蒋太，回不了你的话，写这里了。

美国有没有可能进入recession? 当然可能。ISM number just came out was weak. saving rate in the US went back to pretty high level. now people are waiting for the payroll numbers and unemployment rate coming out tomorrow. if these were bad, it won't be pretty. QE3 is possible, but it may not help (consider the deminishing impact of such stimulus). and the long term consequences of so much monetary easing will become even more concerning.

not sure if you ever read Soro's reflexivity theory. let's say we are on the fringe of recession. if a piece of positive news or data comes out, consumers/corporations' sentiment might get swayed to the positive side so that spending would hold up, which means corporate earnings won't get hurt and GPD won't shrink. But if we have a piece of negative data comes out when the economy is on the fringe, the opposite effect could take place. my point is we are at that kind of moment. corporate earnings are still quite strong, but if people start to believe we are going into a recession, then the effect of which may push the economy right into a recession. the self-reference power should not be underestimated.

in 2009, when I was still a frequent visitor of QQBB, I said the same thing. now I say it again: if you have a fairly long time horizon, do not game the market. nobody can predict the peak or the bottom. dollar cost averaging is the best way for most of the people to participate in the equity market.