市场动荡，还投资吗 - 巴菲特怎么答的。

结论：
- 美元贬值，通胀不可避免 - 房市还得有个数年，但需求在哪里，迟早会恢复
- 金融市场会继续动荡一段时间， 但大恐慌之类的担心就不必了
- 经济衰退无可避免- 股票市场总的来说比较合理，很多甚至已经低估

个人的感觉是可以继续持续投资在股市，关键是要稳，保守些不会错，选大型的稳定没有问题的绩优股。 持续投资，逢低买入，长期持有,千万别投机。

Q&A 当前形势下干什么最降低风险？ （答别来投资理财，好好学学专业知识！）QUICK: That was, again, what would be the best investment to hedge against the upcoming debt crisis?
Buffet: The best thing you're going to have is develop your own talent. I mean, if you're the best doctor in town, if you're the best teacher in town, if you're, you know, the best salesman in town, you'll do well no matter what the currency does.
问现在有什么便宜货么？ （答基本面上来说很多企业都很不错，没必要心惊胆寒）
QUICK: All right. So let's talk about that. Are there bargains out there right now?
BUFFETT: Well, there are certainly things that are a lot cheaper than they were a few years ago, and the businesses are better. Now, that doesn't mean they're doing better today, but they are fundamentally worth more money than they were a couple of years ago, and people are just looking at the glass being half empty rather than half full now.
问这次大恐慌会不会重来？（不会不会。。。）
QUICK: Warren, that question was, again, what are the odds that we could have a bank failure similar to what we saw in 1929?
WARREN BUFFETT (Berkshire Hathaway CEO): Well, that's quite unlikely, partly because of the FDIC. People--you had failures in the Great Depression where the failure of Bank A caused the failure of Bank B. When they saw a line at Bank A, everybody lined up at Bank B and then they lined up at Bank C. And the FDIC was one of the great ideas of the Depression.

问会不会有人不贝尔斯登的后尘？（这篇采访是在雷曼倒之前做的，回答可见老巴的高瞻远瞩）
QUICK: Could there be another Bear Stearns this time around, though?
BUFFETT: Sure. People--and I've said that you only find out who's been swimming naked when the tide goes out.
多久房市会正常？ （大约在冬季 - 几年后吧）
But the good thing about it is we have--we have household formation growth in this country. We're not a stagnant economy and we will work our way out of it, but it took--with the farm crisis here in the early '80s, it took years to work our way out of it.
问现在是不是买股票的时机？ （答只要你是长期投资者，买个好企业不会错，买到底不容易， 换成现金更没必要
BUFFETT: No. The home builders still have plenty of problems and that doesn't mean--you know, the time to buy the stocks is not necessarily when they've already--their business has already turned up.QUICK: Sure.
BUFFETT: I don't look--I don't try to pick turns in any kind of an industry in terms of buying stocks. I just like to buy them when I think they're cheap relative to their long-term earning power and I don't happen to have that conviction about home builders now, but it very well may be the case. It's just I don't have the conviction
BUFFETT: Well, I think their economy is going to do fine. Who knows whether it gets overheated or the inflation picks up or something, but it's like the United States. It really isn't important what happens in the next six months or a year. It's what's going to happen over the next 10 years. We're going to do well. The truth is, the Chinese will do better, because they're starting from a lower base, but they have learned a tremendous amount about business in the last 20 years, and about how to unleash the human potential, and that's something that our country learned earlier. And--but they're picking it up very, very, very fast.

所有跟帖： 

• good read, thanks, right on time!!! -longtermInvestor- ♂ (2 bytes) () 09/17/2008 postreply 23:57:33

• Buffet's comment on housing reinforced my belief: -miat42- ♂ (1140 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 05:40:15

• Would you be in a better position if you had sold all -屋漏痕- ♂ (37 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 06:28:39

• :)长期持有, 会有臆想不到的妙用. RE is an inflation hedge! en? -山高月小- ♂ (10 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 07:04:44

• 长期持有 is ok for an average person who expects average -屋漏痕- ♂ (127 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 07:18:26

• Well, that is a question I do not have answer. :) -山高月小- ♂ (0 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 07:21:11

• I bought my first house in early 90s. Is it long enough term? -miat42- ♂ (0 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 07:22:15

• I don't have any problem with long term holding. -屋漏痕- ♂ (139 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 07:38:20

• That's because you get positive rental income that pays down -miat42- ♂ (344 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 07:43:03

• If you had sold a year or two ago, you could buy back -屋漏痕- ♂ (126 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 07:55:42

• Time shall be spent creating more positive cash flows than -miat42- ♂ (364 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 08:10:36

• Let me ask you this. -屋漏痕- ♂ (134 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 08:36:20

• No, I don't waste time dealing with such offers, first -miat42- ♂ (903 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 08:42:28

• Nobody will mak you such an offer NOW, but -屋漏痕- ♂ (358 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 09:01:19

• I am not a day trader on housing... -miat42- ♂ (0 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 09:25:45

• If you still don't understand, let me explain: -miat42- ♂ (807 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 08:34:51

• "That's easier said than done." -屋漏痕- ♂ (39 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 08:40:29

• Time shall be spent on long term positioning in real estate -miat42- ♂ (224 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 08:44:48

• 回复："That's easier said than done." -funca- ♂ (342 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 09:26:24

• Exactly what I meant. You can only be roughly right -miat42- ♂ (458 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 09:44:54

• 我准备进场买一些我一直眼馋但原来买不起的股票了。。。 -星星光- ♀ (0 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 06:26:43

• 看来希望还在中国 -TV_lover- ♂ (0 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 09:02:57