Buffet's comment on housing reinforced my belief:

Buffet's comment on housing market outlook:

"多久房市会正常？ （大约在冬季 - 几年后吧）
BUFFET: But the good thing about it is we have--we have household formation growth in this country. We're not a stagnant economy and we will work our way out of it, but it took--with the farm crisis here in the early '80s, it took years to work our way out of it"

Miat: Please notice that Buffet said that "we have household formation growth in this country". My research also supported his opinion. That is, USA has very healthy population growth as we go forward, regardless of recession or not. USA is the *ONLY* developed industrial nation that has the fastest growth in population, faster than many developing nations, for example, China. With such growth and with the coming inflation (which Buffet is adamant about), there is only one direction for housing price, up. Of course, I agree with Buffet that the recovery could take a long long time, similar to what we have been through in the 90s. It took almost 12 years from 89 to 2001 for housing to recover in last cycle. It could take as long this cycle.

所有跟帖： 

• Would you be in a better position if you had sold all -屋漏痕- ♂ (37 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 06:28:39

• :)长期持有, 会有臆想不到的妙用. RE is an inflation hedge! en? -山高月小- ♂ (10 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 07:04:44

• 长期持有 is ok for an average person who expects average -屋漏痕- ♂ (127 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 07:18:26

• Well, that is a question I do not have answer. :) -山高月小- ♂ (0 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 07:21:11

• I bought my first house in early 90s. Is it long enough term? -miat42- ♂ (0 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 07:22:15

• I don't have any problem with long term holding. -屋漏痕- ♂ (139 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 07:38:20

• That's because you get positive rental income that pays down -miat42- ♂ (344 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 07:43:03

• If you had sold a year or two ago, you could buy back -屋漏痕- ♂ (126 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 07:55:42

• Time shall be spent creating more positive cash flows than -miat42- ♂ (364 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 08:10:36

• Let me ask you this. -屋漏痕- ♂ (134 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 08:36:20

• No, I don't waste time dealing with such offers, first -miat42- ♂ (903 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 08:42:28

• Nobody will mak you such an offer NOW, but -屋漏痕- ♂ (358 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 09:01:19

• I am not a day trader on housing... -miat42- ♂ (0 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 09:25:45

• If you still don't understand, let me explain: -miat42- ♂ (807 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 08:34:51

• "That's easier said than done." -屋漏痕- ♂ (39 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 08:40:29

• Time shall be spent on long term positioning in real estate -miat42- ♂ (224 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 08:44:48

• 回复："That's easier said than done." -funca- ♂ (342 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 09:26:24

• Exactly what I meant. You can only be roughly right -miat42- ♂ (458 bytes) () 09/18/2008 postreply 09:44:54