Following the weather forcast or playing fair gamble, what we are really playing is a probability game.
From my last few weeks experience, i.e. I became more weather concerned since I started taking public transportation, I found that my local weather forcast accuracy is about 10%. That's not bad at all. You might think I am joking that I meant 10% is better than 0%. Nope, I am serious, and 10% is no better than 0%.
Probability becomes tricky at certain point.
Q: What is the worst prediction accuracy 1%, 2%, or 0% ?
None of them, the worst is 50%, it is the lowest winning rate. If the accuracy is higher than 50% we follow the prediction, straight forward. If the accuracy is lower than 50% (learned from our statistic) we just reverse our decision from the prediction, "straight backward
". We bid with reverse logic. If the weather accuracy is 10% , we do the opposite from what the forcast says we get 90% winning chances.
This Tuesday I used reversed logic ignoring the rain forcast, I should have 90% chances of winning.
But I was caught by the 10% rain. The next day, Wednesday, I changed my horse in midstream, I followed the weather forcast of rain, I drove and expected to get my car washed by the rain, this time fate faved the 90%, i.e. no rain; rain never came down, I lost a day's hiking fun.
Today, the weather said snow and cold, this could be the last cold day of this winter, I didn't want to miss this. My body can be very active at around -10C, and I want to embrace the snow fall. Up to this point the sun still shines. Where is my appointed snow?
Anyway, to me, it is an all winning game, I get my walking in a chill at least, and I won't take any weatherproof action in the future. I am really having fun.
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