再谈危险与安全：美国 vs. 加拿大
Revisiting Danger and Safety: United States vs. Canada
上周我通过一些数据和图表谈了一下“生活在美国的危险与安全”（https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/80301/202312/10724.html），主要集中于美国最近三、四十年的纵向比较，以及中产华人遭遇危险的因素极其概率。文中认为，不同于美国的的平均值，华人遭遇枪击可能性比较小，主要危险因素是车祸。社交媒体、如微信等的夸张信息，容易使人产生非理性的焦虑。
Last week, I discussed " Safety and Danger in Life in the USA" through data and charts (https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/80301/202312/10724.html), mainly focusing on a longitudinal comparison of the United States over the past three to four decades and the factors and probabilities of dangers faced by middle-class Chinese. The article argued that, contrary to the U.S. average, the likelihood of gun violence for Chinese individuals is relatively low, with the primary danger being traffic accidents. The exaggeration of information on social media platforms like WeChat tends to induce irrational anxiety.
然而有网友指出，美国较其他国家多很多的枪击案。不管怎样，毕竟是让人紧张的。比较而言，加拿大是一个更好的地方。恰好，我也愿意拿美国与其他发达国家比较一下。欧洲的统计方式跟美国的不太契合，而加拿大的统计可以找出一些图表跟美国高度对应。那就拿它做参照物吧，何况他是美国的小弟邻居，而且在地球村里头口碑很好。
However, some netizens pointed out that the United States has significantly more gun-related incidents than other countries, causing understandable concern. In comparison, Canada is considered a better place. Coincidentally, I am willing to compare the United States with other developed countries. European statistics do not align well with those of the United States, but Canada's statistics offer charts that closely correspond to those of the United States. Let's use Canada as a reference, considering it is a neighbor to the U.S. with a good reputation in the global village.
我有亲戚和朋友在加拿大，我也去过加拿大，对它比较了解。没有一个人说加拿大不好。那里地大物博、民风平和、风景优美、生活水平高。咱们现在客观来看一下、跟美国比较一下。还是使用上次我们分析美国时提出的跟个人的人身安全最为相关的前三位因素：药物过服、车祸和谋杀。
Having relatives and friends in Canada and having visited the country, I have a good understanding of it. Not a single person has anything negative to say about Canada. The country boasts vast land, a harmonious society, beautiful scenery, and a high standard of living. Now, let's objectively compare it with the United States, using the three factors most relevant to personal safety that we highlighted in our previous analysis of the U.S.: drug overdose, traffic accidents, and murder.
2013年以前，加拿大的吸毒情况和致死率与欧洲发达如瑞典、英格兰类似，处于相对的低水平。美国那时已经“一枝独秀”，是这些国家的两、三倍。从10年前开始，芬太尼登陆美国，致死率便火箭式上升（参见https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/80301/202311/17508.html）显然，作为美国的北方邻居，加拿大是被明显波及的。在2022年，美国的药物过服致死率高达每十万人中39人；加拿大为20人。加拿大的数字虽然不低，但同美国相比只是一半，差别明显。
Before 2013, Canada's drug abuse situation and mortality rates were similar to developed European countries like Sweden and England, at relatively low levels. The United States, on the other hand, had already taken the lead, being two to three times higher than these countries. Starting from ten years ago, the introduction of fentanyl in the U.S. led to a skyrocketing mortality rate (see https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/80301/202311/17508.html). Clearly, as the northern neighbor of the U.S., Canada was significantly affected. In 2022, the drug overdose mortality rate in the U.S. was 39 people per 100,000, while in Canada, it was 20 people. Although Canada's figures are not low, they are only half of the U.S., highlighting a noticeable difference.
交通事故的差别就更大了。下面这是交通事故受伤的比例（小年龄是被动受伤，如作为乘客。）美国在各国年龄组都是加拿大的3-5倍。其中危险性最大的青年人群，美国每年400人中就有一人因车祸受伤，而加拿大2000人中才有一人受伤。美国的幼儿被动受伤的比例几乎跟加拿大青年人群差不多，而加拿大的幼儿极少有伤害事故。
The disparity in traffic accidents is even more significant. The following represents the ratio of injuries in traffic accidents by age group (young age signifies passive injuries, such as being a passenger). In all age groups, the U.S. has 3-5 times more injuries than Canada. Among the youth, the most at-risk group, the U.S. has one person injured in a car accident for every 400 people annually, while Canada has one person injured for every 2,000 people. The rate of passive injuries among toddlers in the United States is nearly the same as that of the 25-34 age group in Canada, while incidents of injuries among toddlers are extremely rare in Canada.
如果单看（下表）车祸造成的死亡，同样不好意思，美国在各种情况下造成的死亡概率都是加拿大的2.5倍左右。为什么相邻的两个国家，美国的交通事故这么多？简而言之，美国人不严格守法！很多美国人超速、酒驾，而且很多美国人至今不使用安全的带。
It's a shame to look at the table of deaths caused by car accidents alone: The probability of deaths in the U.S. is approximately 2.5 times higher than in Canada in all categories. Why do neighboring countries have such a disparity in traffic accidents? In simple terms, Americans do not strictly follow the law! Many Americans speed, drive under the influence, and, surprisingly, many Americans still do not use seat belts.
在交通安全方面，美国还有执法不严的问题。君不见，限速65的地方，如果某辆车按规定速度开，几乎肯定是老眼昏花的耄耋老人。其他人不开70、75都不好意思。不到80mph，警察也不管的（至少在我这里是如此）。我知道一点德国的情况，那里是极其严格的：限速多少就必须开多少，被抓到不仅仅是罚款，经常是一段时间不让开车。上班的交通问题你自己解决。而且不光警察抓，自动系统也抓。比如两个收费站之间，如果收费时间相隔不足，说明你一定超速了，惩罚单自动发出。
In terms of traffic safety, the U.S. also faces the issue of lax law enforcement. In areas with a speed limit of 65 mph, if a car is driving at the prescribed speed, it is almost certain that the driver is an elderly person with poor eyesight. Others feel embarrassed if they don't drive at 70 or 75 mph. The police don't intervene unless the speed is above 80 mph (at least in my area). I know a bit about Germany's situation, where regulations are extremely strict: if the speed limit is a certain number, you must drive that speed, and being caught not only results in fines but often also a suspension of driving privileges for a period. Commuting traffic problems are left for individuals to solve. Moreover, it's not just the police; automated systems also catch violations. For example, if the time between two toll stations is too short, it indicates that you must have been speeding, and a penalty notice is automatically issued.
美国人灵活，美国人热爱自由，美国人不能因交规太严格影响挣钱，美国人更怕严格执法出现“种族主义”。于是付出的代价是，美国每年多死25000人，多伤40万。Freedom is not free. 呵呵。
Americans are flexible, love freedom, and are unwilling to let strict traffic regulations affect their income. Americans also fear that strict law enforcement may lead to "racism." As a result, the cost paid is that the U.S. sees 25,000 more deaths and 400,000 more injuries each year. Freedom is not free.
现在来看看最引人瞩目的谋杀与枪击问题。我们上次说美国近30年来越来越安全了，可是很加拿大一比，谋杀率却始终是是加拿大的3倍左右，令人汗颜啊！不拍不识货，就怕货比货。从这项指标看，加拿大是一个比美国安全得多的地方。
Now, let's turn our attention to the most striking issue: murder and gun violence. Last time, I mentioned that the U.S. has become safer over the past 30 years, but when compared to Canada, the murder rate has consistently been about three times higher, which is embarrassing! Only upon comparison do we realize how far behind the U.S. falls. From this perspective, Canada is a much safer place.
我们再来看看枪支和枪击与加拿大谋杀案的关系。先看左边那个大图。在2009年，美国民间枪支数超过人口总数。再看左侧小图所示，美国现在民间枪支数是人口数的120%。加拿大这个比例是35%，在世界发达国家中也是雄踞第二。右边那个彩色图告诉我们两个信息：1. 美国的谋杀率是加拿大的约3.5倍（为方便起见，此处不将homicide与murder的含义作严格区分。）；2. 美国的杀人，80%是用枪实施的。加拿大杀人，30%用枪。至于对这些数字和图表的进一步解读，我就不做了。我只是想说，相关关系不是因果关系。上周我那篇博文贴出后，与一位拥枪派网友有不少交流（我本人算不上“禁枪派”，更不是“左棍”），感兴趣的朋友可以去看一下。
Let's also examine the relationship between firearms and gun violence in Canadian murder cases. Look at the large chart on the left first. In 2009, the number of civilian firearms in the U.S. exceeded the total population. Now, look at the small bar graph on the left, indicating that the current number of civilian firearms in the U.S. is 120% of the population. Canada's ratio is 35%, ranking second among developed countries worldwide. The colorful chart on the right tells us two pieces of information: 1. The U.S. murder rate is about 3.5 times that of Canada (for convenience, we don’t strictly distinguish between homicide and murder in this article); 2. In the U.S., 80% of murders are committed with firearms, while in Canada, it's 30%. As for further interpretation of these numbers and charts, I won't delve into it. I just want to say that correlation does not imply causation. After my last blog post, I had some exchange with a pro-gun netizen (I can't be considered "anti-gun" myself, let alone a "leftist"). Interested friends can go and take a look.
好，现在让我们像上篇那样设想一个scenario，假如你到一个完全代表今日加拿大平均水平的、一万人口的小城去去生活一年，那么你会看到，这一年里面将有91人去世。在这91个死者中，有2人是药物过服去世（主要是吸毒所致），0.4人交通事故去世，0.2人被谋杀，1.2人自杀，0.5人死于其他事故（假定发生率与美国一样），其他近87人都是因生病或衰老去世的。这个统计数字如果换成中产华人，药物过量致死趋近为零，被谋杀极少。特别重要的是，交通事故死亡率比美国减少了60%。所以在总体上，美国华人遭遇“不测”的概率（主要是车祸和谋杀），可能接近加拿大华人的3倍。
Now, let's imagine a scenario, similar to the one in the previous article. Suppose you go to a small town with a population of 10,000 that completely represents the current average level of Canada to live for a year. In that year, you will see 91 people die. Among these 91 deceased, 2 died from drug overdose (mainly due to drug use), 0.4 died in traffic accidents, 0.2 were murdered, 1.2 committed suicide, 0.5 died from other accidents (assuming the rate is the same as in the U.S.), and nearly 87 died from illness or old age. If we change these statistics to represent middle-class Chinese individuals, drug overdose deaths would approach zero, and murders would be very rare. Importantly, the mortality rate from traffic accidents is 60% lower than in the U.S. So overall, the probability of Chinese individuals in the U.S. encountering "unexpected death" (mainly due to car accidents and murders) may be close to three times that of Chinese individuals in Canada.
写到这里，我心中难免几分郁闷。美国比加拿大差得远啊！上周的文章的后一部分，我说了美国的不少好，比如美国经济的强大，美国基础科学、核心技术、创新能力等是生活在美国这片土地上的人民最大的“安全”等等。后来我意识到，我前一半主要是谈safety的问题，后面转到了security上面。两者在中文都翻译成“安全”，但是在英文里，其内涵是有些不同的。加拿大的safety明显比美国好，这是不争的事实。然而，它security方面怎么样，宏观方面怎么样？我作为美国公民，现在脸上有点挂不住。能不能找点地方扳回一局？
Writing up to this point, I can't help feeling a bit depressed. The United States is far worse than Canada! In the latter part of last week's article, I talked about many good things about the United States, such as its strong economy, the United States being the quite "secure" place for people living on this land in terms of basic science, core technology, and innovation, etc. Later, I realized that in the first half, I mainly talked about the issue of safety, and in the latter half, I shifted to security. Both are translated into "安全" in Chinese, but in English, their connotations are somewhat different. Canada's safety is clearly better than the U.S., and that is an indisputable fact. However, how about its security at the macro level? As a U.S. citizen, I now feel a bit awkward. Can I find some points to turn the game around?
上面中张图显示美国和加拿大失业率的比较。虽然趋势类似，但这些年加拿大的失业率始终比美国高1.5-2 个百分点。最新公布的数字是美国失业率3.7%，加拿大5.7%。这不是一个小的差别。它表明美国的劳动力市场更为活跃，人们容易找到工作，容易挣到钱，也相对不怕失业。这在高学历人群中同样明显。在我的公司认识的人中，就有数位加拿大博士。他们都说美国机会多。美联储在最近一年多几次升息，以对抗通货膨胀率的飙升和经济过热。现在通胀率已经接近正常，且并没有引起失业率的明显上升，这是“软着陆”的重要标志。假如美国失业率升到了加拿大的水平，联储就麻烦了。
The above chart shows a comparison of the unemployment rates between the U.S. and Canada. Although the trends are similar, over the years, Canada's unemployment rate has consistently been 1.5-2 percentage points higher than that of the United States. The latest published numbers are a 3.7% unemployment rate in the U.S. and a 5.7% rate in Canada. This is not a small difference. It indicates that the U.S. labor market is more active, people find jobs more easily, earn money more easily, and are relatively less afraid of unemployment. This is also evident among the highly educated population. Among people I know in my company, there are several Canadian Ph.D. scientists. They all say that there are more opportunities in the U.S. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates several times in the past year to combat the surge in inflation and an overheating economy. Now, with the inflation rate nearing normal levels and not causing a noticeable increase in the unemployment rate, people see important sign of a "soft landing." If the U.S. unemployment rate rise to the level of Canada's, the Fed would be in trouble.
美国另一个值得骄傲的地方便是经济持续稳定上升，人民富裕。从上图可以看出，10年前加拿大的人均GDP甚至一度超过美国，现在已经差得很远。现在，美国的人均GDP是加拿大的1.43倍，英国的1.64倍，法国的1.58倍，德国的1.52倍，意大利的2.16倍，日本的2.37倍。加上美国的低税率（别的国家可能有更好的福利，这是另一个话题，这里不谈。）美国人民手上的钱要多很多，他们享受更富裕的生活。
Another point that the U.S. can be proud of is its continuously rising and stable economy, making its citizens prosperous. From the chart above, you can see that ten years ago, Canada's per capita GDP even temporarily exceeded that of the U.S., but now the gap is significant. Currently, the U.S. per capita GDP is 1.43 times that of Canada, 1.64 times that of the U.K., 1.58 times that of France, 1.52 times that of Germany, 2.16 times that of Italy, and 2.37 times that of Japan. Coupled with the low tax rates in the U.S. (other countries may have better welfare, which is another topic not discussed here), the people in the U.S. have much more money, leading to a more prosperous life.
如果抛开安全这个主题去比，还有一点很重要，那就是美国幅员辽阔、可以让人欣赏的地方，不论是城市风貌、文化艺术还是自然景观都是极其丰富的。美国“好玩”。上图是北美被境外游客访问最多的10座城市，美、加共占8席，而美国远居前列（首都华盛顿和芝加哥紧随其后），图下的数字是每年境外游客的访问人数。我有一位国内的朋友，算“成功人士”，老婆孩子二十年前就在多伦多安家，他早年两边跑。他告诉我，他成年的3个孩子，每年要开着车去纽约，住两个星期，观剧、逛博物馆、看球、听音乐会。老两口不解，问孩子：纽约脏兮兮、乱哄哄的，有什么好，看一次还不够？孩子答：爸妈，你们不懂。
If we set aside the safety theme for comparison, there's one more crucial point: the vast and appreciable places that the U.S. offers, whether in terms of cityscapes, cultural arts, or natural landscapes, are extremely rich. The U.S. is "fun." The chart above shows the top 10 cities most visited by foreign tourists in North America, with the U.S. and Canada collectively occupying eight seats, and the U.S. leading the pack (followed closely by Washington, D.C., and Chicago), with the numbers below the chart representing the annual number of visits by foreign tourists. I have a friend in China, considered a "successful person," whose wife and children settled in Toronto twenty years ago. He used to travel between the two countries frequently. He told me that his three adult children, every year, drive to New York City, stay for two weeks, watch shows, visit museums, watch sports, and attend concerts. The old couple couldn't understand and asked the children: NYC is messy and chaotic; what's so good about it? Isn't once enough? The children replied: Mom and Dad, you don't understand.
很多年以前，Talk show主持人Craig Ferguson，操着他那苏格兰口音，风趣地比较过美国和加拿大。他说像美国是一个party，而加拿大是party的楼上一个安静的地方。我认为这个比喻十分形象。
Many years ago, talk show host Craig Ferguson, with his Scottish accent, once humorously compared the U.S. and Canada. He said that the U.S. is like a party, while Canada is a quiet place upstairs above the party. I think this metaphor is very apt.
是参加party呢，还是呆在party的楼上，这是一个问题。
To attend the party, or to stay in the quiet place upstairs, that is the question.
【Edited from ChatGPT translation.】
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