给大家凑个热闹, 也是道概率题:

小王去医院体检, 结果发现HIV阳性. 已知HIV检查的准确率为95%. 小王非常恐慌. 请你帮小王计算一下他被感染的概率, 假定人群中真实HIV感染率为千分之一.

这个问题能帮你建立对概率的感性认识.

所有跟帖： 

• Good Problem :) -idiot94- ♀ (0 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 14:18:51

• 答案是什么？ -你道是说呀。- ♀ (0 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 14:20:17

• wait a few hours, if no one -idiot94- ♀ (55 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 14:48:40

• 回复：wait a few hours, if no one -别轻易下结论- ♀ (0 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 14:50:02

• 95% -WM2- ♀ (0 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 14:26:59

• 同意！ -别轻易下结论- ♀ (0 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 14:36:30

• 别轻易下结论! :) -sentinel- ♀ (0 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 14:38:44

• 犯了轻易下结论的错误。不是95% -别轻易下结论被驻了- ♀ (44 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 14:56:33

• A standard Bayes problem -ggggxgggg- ♀ (166 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 15:37:58

• Correct :) -idiot94- ♀ (678 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 15:48:30

• The accuracy rate -sentinel- ♀ (160 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 16:54:22

• you dickhead, Shabi -haha- ♀ (0 bytes) () 07/15/2004 postreply 22:19:33

• can you define HIV检查的准确率为95% ? -junjunbos- ♀ (331 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 15:39:11

• 问得好，我感觉定义的模糊才 -是这道题失败的关键。- ♀ (0 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 15:50:56

• There is nothing vague -idiot94- ♀ (588 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 15:59:53

• 别给别人上课来显示你的“聪明” -那叫哗众取宠- ♀ (0 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 16:22:41

• LoL.. I am idiot :D -idiot94- ♀ (0 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 16:48:28

• He is not“聪明”, but -sentinel- ♀ (99 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 17:17:46

• 你是轮子派来的不？请跟我去兵坛，让我好好操操你 -花剪刀- ♀ (0 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 17:44:26

• Blind guy, get out here! -sentinel- ♀ (0 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 17:48:37

• 回复：There is nothing vague -heg- ♀ (527 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 17:49:52

• Good question! -sentinel- ♀ (87 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 16:14:29

• don't forgot the condition -heg- ♀ (666 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 17:58:57

• I'm happy to see a real -sentinel- ♀ (291 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 18:11:46

• 回复：I'm happy to see a real -heg- ♀ (348 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 19:01:10

• Thanks! -sentinel- ♀ (0 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 19:05:47

• ok, if it is the second case: -junjunbos- ♀ (391 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 18:18:44

• 2%的答案大错特措了！不可能这么低！ -不轻易下结论- ♀ (10 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 18:57:59

• well, according to definition -junjunbos- ♀ (70 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 19:04:51

• 你的论证很有意思，可以称作悖论了。 -不轻易下结论- ♀ (98 bytes) () 07/14/2004 postreply 19:11:15