中国青年失业率数字是不好看，不过没必要上来就说政府掩耳盗铃。统计这事，魔鬼在细节之中。

来源: 奔驰野马于 2023-08-15 09:16:10 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (6161 bytes)

本帖于 2023-08-15 09:16:39 时间, 由普通用户奔驰野马编辑

中国宣布暂停公布青年失业率统计，给出的理由是“需要优化统计方法”，特别是怎样统计在校大学生的问题。

至于那个一周工作一小时算就业的定义，美国也是这样用的，甚至连那个“一小时”都省了。如果看官方定义的话，美国是这样的：

Who is counted as employed?

People are considered employed if they did any work at all for pay or profit during the survey reference week. This includes all part-time and temporary work, as well as regular full-time, year-round employment. Individuals also are counted as employed if they have a job at which they did not work during the survey week, whether they were paid or not, because they were:

On vacation
Ill
Experiencing child care problems
On maternity or paternity leave
Taking care of some other family or personal obligation
Involved in a labor dispute
Prevented from working by bad weather

中美的差异其实在于，中国的统计方法太粗放，根据年龄一刀切。16岁以上就自动计入labor force，而不问是否有工作的意愿。

美国的统计比较细致，是建议在问卷的基础上。首先有问题确定你是否在labor force，然后再问你在过去的一周是否工作。具体的问题，可以在劳工局网站上找到。

https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#employed

按照美国的统计口径，没有工作意愿的学生是不计算在labor force之内的，也就没有所谓的失业问题。

Persons who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force. This category includes retired persons, students, those taking care of children or other family members, and others who are neither working nor seeking work.

虽然中国的青年失业率，即便优化了统计方法，也可能会比美国的难看，但肯定会低于20%的水平。所以，先别下结论政府掩耳盗铃，等新统计方法出来了再骂不迟。