大家反驳一下?流感疫苗无效论

来源: 万得福 2017-10-16 07:45:50 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 次 (6187 bytes)
Dr. David Brownstein points out in a blog post regarding a new vaccine study, the Fluzone vaccine was nearly 98 percent ineffective during trials and, among the placebo group, less than 4 percent contracted the flu despite not having a vaccine.

http://blog.drbrownstein.com/time-for-a-flu-vaccine-fugetaboutit/

Time For A Flu Vaccine? Fugetaboutit!

The flu and cold season is upon us.  I have already seen numerous patients suffering with upper respiratory illnesses and even weathered my first bout. 

The CDC and the Powers-That-Be would have you believe that you should receive the influenza vaccine on a yearly basis. (1) They claim that the flu vaccine can save thousands of lives.  Of course, I have written to you many times that there is not a single study that has ever supported the claim that the flu vaccine saves any lives.  In fact, the history of the flu vaccine shows clearly that it fails nearly all who take it. 

A recent article in Family Practice News (September 1, 2017, p. 10) was titled, “Inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine safe, effective.”  The article states, “An intramuscular inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine reduced the risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza by up to 69% in previously unvaccinated children aged 6-35 months in a large randomized trial,,,reported at the annual meeting of the European Society for Paediartic (sic) Infectious Diseases.”

Wow. I have studied the influenza vaccine for years and I know that there is not one study that has shown the flu vaccine very effective for preventing the flu.  Is this something new? 

I pulled the study and read it. Here’s what I found.

The study included 5,806 healthy 6-35-months-olds.  More than 5,400 were randomized to two doses of the quadrivalent vaccine (Fluzone) or placebo .  The trial was conducted in Europe, Asia, South America and Africa between March 2014 and September 2016.  The incidence of any laboratory-confirmed strain of influenza illness during the period from 14 days post-vaccination to the end of the flu season was 1.01% in the Fluzone group and 3.28% in those who received the placebo. 

How did they get the 69% efficacy rate?  They used the relative risk statistical analysis by simply dividing 1.01 into 3.28.  When I lecture to health care professionals about statistics, I tell them that the relative risk analysis is used by the Big Pharma Cartel to make a poorly performing drug or therapy look better than it actually is.   Relative risk analysis should never be used when making clinical decisions about whether to prescribe a drug or therapy.  Sadly, most doctors and other health care professionals have no knowledge about how to properly review a medical study because they do not understand statistics. 

The more accurate way to determine the effectiveness of the flu vaccine in this study (and all other studies as well) is to use the absolute risk difference.  In the Fluzone study, the absolute risk difference between the Fluzone and the placebo group was 2.27% (3.28%-1.01%). That means that Fluzone was nearly 98% ineffective in preventing the flu as there was only a 2.27% benefit received for those who were vaccinated. In other words, this study showed that injecting Fluzone failed nearly 98%–they received no protection from the flu.

Folks, this is another study showing a flu vaccine failing the vast majority who receive it.  This study is consistent with other flu vaccine studies.  Why would anyone prescribe–much less take–a therapy that fails nearly 98% who receive it?

Flu season is approaching. 

Should you get a flu vaccine that fails the vast majority–98%–of the time? 

Fuggetaboutit!

1)     http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/885567?src=WNL_infoc_170924_MSCPEDIT_TEMP2&uac=83217PG&impID=1439801&faf=1 

所有跟帖: 

把3.28%的risk 降到1%, 有效率当然是69%. 比较的是相对Risk, 这是基本统计概念,不光医药这样算 -GoGym- 给 GoGym 发送悄悄话 (141 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 08:00:07

误导就是用的这种手法。百万分之一和百万分之二的差别是一倍,可是都是小概率事件,临床根本就没有意义。 -薛成- 给 薛成 发送悄悄话 薛成 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 08:10:14

那要看sample size和statistical power. 相对Attack rate 来说,如果Sample size -GoGym- 给 GoGym 发送悄悄话 (257 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 08:23:10

NNT is 44 -虎嗅蔷薇- 给 虎嗅蔷薇 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 08:33:23

NNT在这里,好象和lz说的沒有太大关系 -GoGym- 给 GoGym 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:11:44

3%得了流感,是不是可以说我只有3%的可能性得流感? -万得福- 给 万得福 发送悄悄话 万得福 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 08:33:36

嗯,如果你在那个临床代表的人群里,可以这样估算。但这种统计是随地区,场合,年龄等变的 -GoGym- 给 GoGym 发送悄悄话 (388 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 08:57:04

对风险的估算不只能看发病率,也要看病情的严重性和后果。NNT是无法显示受益人的受益程度的。 -虎嗅蔷薇- 给 虎嗅蔷薇 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:08:19

是这样 -GoGym- 给 GoGym 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:12:43

不打的话,您得流感的几率是多少? -Gbdjw- 给 Gbdjw 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:05:55

得流感的几率是3%。得流感死亡的几率是百万分之4.5。看下面的数据。 -万得福- 给 万得福 发送悄悄话 万得福 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:38:01

自己防范。 -Gbdjw- 给 Gbdjw 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:18:26

你可以觉得临床没意义,但差别一倍是事实。把这说成98%无效,那才叫误导。 -davidhu1999- 给 davidhu1999 发送悄悄话 davidhu1999 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 11:19:35

不管有效无效从不打流感疫苗,几乎没得过流感 -夏阳- 给 夏阳 发送悄悄话 夏阳 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:08:42

我也是!也没看见身边的人打或提这事,好像生活在不同的世界。 -lawattaction- 给 lawattaction 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:35:40

我和儿子也从来没打过。婆婆每年打,她年岁大了,又住老年公寓,属于“高危”,应该打。 -Gbdjw- 给 Gbdjw 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:42:16

美国流感是会死人的,所以哪怕降低一点儿风险也是重要的 -dudaan- 给 dudaan 发送悄悄话 dudaan 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:10:48

+1, 特别是高风险人群 -GoGym- 给 GoGym 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:13:26

这里是CDC的死亡数据:3%的可能性得流感,其中0.4%会死亡,万分之1.5的死亡率,CDC强迫每个人打疫苗。对吧? -万得福- 给 万得福 发送悄悄话 万得福 的博客首页 (622 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:18:39

推荐和强迫还是不一样的。 -虎嗅蔷薇- 给 虎嗅蔷薇 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:21:22

某些工作是强制性的。 -dudaan- 给 dudaan 发送悄悄话 dudaan 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:43:19

是的,比如医院医护人员。因为他们接触的多为高危人群,如得流感,会害病人 -GoGym- 给 GoGym 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:54:14

确实如此。 -虎嗅蔷薇- 给 虎嗅蔷薇 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:30:07

I don't think it is mandatory for every one getting a flu shot. -shangxin_na- 给 shangxin_na 发送悄悄话 shangxin_na 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:21:23

CDC强迫??? 最多建议一下,自己的身体自己负责,爱冒险是自己的事 -GoGym- 给 GoGym 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:22:42

CDC的"建议“,到了临床就是很强烈的marketing push,”建议“很容易变味。 -Gbdjw- 给 Gbdjw 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:38:47

CDC的mission是public health. 美国每年有数万人死于流感相关疫病,直接治病费用>$10B -GoGym- 给 GoGym 发送悄悄话 (158 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:50:43

数据的出处,please, 疫苗的收入是多少? -Gbdjw- 给 Gbdjw 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:52:57

这个一搜就出,到处是数据。流感疫苗被医药公司称为commodity product, 因为利润很低 -GoGym- 给 GoGym 发送悄悄话 (44 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:56:42

我去体检,我的家庭医生硬给我打一针,说不打不行。 -万得福- 给 万得福 发送悄悄话 万得福 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:05:18

去告他:) -GoGym- 给 GoGym 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:23:27

这个就是家医的不对了怎么能强制执行呢。我家医建议打的疫苗多了,都被我婉拒了 -夏阳- 给 夏阳 发送悄悄话 夏阳 的博客首页 (59 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:30:09

这篇文章说CDC在说谎,实际流感致死率是上面万分之1.5数据的3%。 真的是百万分之1的水平也。CDC是不是有病啊? -万得福- 给 万得福 发送悄悄话 万得福 的博客首页 (471 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:34:57

这篇才是说谎 -GoGym- 给 GoGym 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:52:31

批驳一下呗,别干喊口号。 -万得福- 给 万得福 发送悄悄话 万得福 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:59:08

没什么好批的呀,那个数据沒有任何出处,信口而来。你知道CDC是如何运作收集数据的吗? -GoGym- 给 GoGym 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:03:09

原来BMJ是本烂杂志,尽发烂文章。呵呵。 -万得福- 给 万得福 发送悄悄话 万得福 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:07:57

老实讲,我说的是你的结论。文章说的很清楚流感直接造成死亡只有几百到几千,但会有几万人 -GoGym- 给 GoGym 发送悄悄话 (233 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:15:01

文章说的是CDC混淆概念,用流感引发症肺炎扩大死亡数据吓人。肺炎由流感引发不到5%。 -万得福- 给 万得福 发送悄悄话 万得福 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:42:57

BMJ是本好期刊,百家争鸣,不拘一格。老百姓讲话:是骡是马,拉出来溜溜 -fuz- 给 fuz 发送悄悄话 fuz 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:23:48

把这结果说成是“was nearly 98% ineffective”这是明摆着的误导。有这个在,其他的就不用说了。 -davidhu1999- 给 davidhu1999 发送悄悄话 davidhu1999 的博客首页 (290 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 11:17:37

98%的人打与不打都不会得流感,你说这不是 ineffective,那是什么?你给个科学准确的词呗。 -万得福- 给 万得福 发送悄悄话 万得福 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 11:52:33

因为正常人对这种小概率事件描述时,不会用这种方式。就这么简单。 -davidhu1999- 给 davidhu1999 发送悄悄话 davidhu1999 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 14:06:05

请您先登陆,再发跟帖!