If you trade and not hold, yes, you may throw away money

However, if you judge from a valuation point of view and able to hold out the recessions, then they will make you money. The key understanding is we can't know the timing to tell the future. We better don't waste time trying to catch the exact timing. Human psychology is very linear projecting, when the market drops to 8K, people are projecting to 7K, when the market drops to 7K, people are projecting to 6K, and always linearly projecting forward. This is the human nature of fear. The best guide is judging the price using long term valuation. If the value presents itself, then you have reason to buy. If the P/E is reasonable, then you know you get the value, even if it may go even lower in the short term. Warren Buffet never caught true bottom, but he always buys a lot during the most fearsome period. He bought GE and GS a couple of weeks ago, I bet he will buy again.

所有跟帖： 

• trading is much safer in this market -mm48- ♂ (393 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 15:30:38

• I want to find 2 or 3 banks that will survive -miat42- ♂ (281 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 15:37:28

• C may go bankrupt -biglovee- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 15:52:37

• May or may not, C is so cheap, just buy some, a small portion -miat42- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 15:56:15

• all of them can go bankcrupt -mm48- ♂ (336 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 15:58:01

• I am afraid you may not make any money thinking this way -miat42- ♂ (312 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 16:01:18

• Then you need to adjust your calculations for risks. -biglovee- ♀ (149 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 16:13:06