I am not a good contrary indicator because I always talk

as long as I am alive. And my opinion is most time different from the crowd. The reason is I am older than most here, have seen it all before. Of course, this time could be worse that all that I had seen before. To me, this crisis could be 30% worse than before. For example, in all 3 prior crisis, the stock market dropped 45-50% off the peak. If we assume this time is as worse as the Great Depression in the 30s, that's about 30% - 40% worse. I would adjust that to expect market bottom to be around 6K or 5K of DJIA.

The most damaging enemy of ours is our own fear. So, be calm and control your fear, climb out of your fear and observe the opportunities.

所有跟帖： 

• No fear, but why throw away money if you know it's going lower? -mm48- ♂ (205 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 15:16:26

• If you trade and not hold, yes, you may throw away money -miat42- ♂ (891 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 15:25:24

• trading is much safer in this market -mm48- ♂ (393 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 15:30:38

• I want to find 2 or 3 banks that will survive -miat42- ♂ (281 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 15:37:28

• C may go bankrupt -biglovee- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 15:52:37

• May or may not, C is so cheap, just buy some, a small portion -miat42- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 15:56:15

• all of them can go bankcrupt -mm48- ♂ (336 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 15:58:01

• I am afraid you may not make any money thinking this way -miat42- ♂ (312 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 16:01:18

• Then you need to adjust your calculations for risks. -biglovee- ♀ (149 bytes) () 11/19/2008 postreply 16:13:06