应该是你自己没弄清楚. 不管怎么NET OUT, 总有人做最后一个

傻瓜,这个傻瓜要承担的是NOTIONAL VALUE.

CDS不是个零和游戏, 不是你赚了我就赔的游戏, 是个赔起来会惊天动地的对赌. LEHMAN发行1块的债, 可能有10块的CDS在堵. 这样赔起来, 是会吓坏人的.

所有跟帖： 

• CDS不是个零和游戏? -bayfamily- ♂ (120 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:08:48

• 如果一个房子只有一个CDS, 那倒是的. -冬里- ♀ (69 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:10:53

• 回复：如果一个房子只有一个CDS, 那倒是的. -BayFamily- ♂ (57 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:21:05

• 好象你没懂哈. -冬里- ♀ (255 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:27:12

• 你没明白我的意思 -BayFamily- ♂ (107 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:32:46

• 怎么会没有? -冬里- ♀ (161 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:36:12

• 所以系统外需要的总和是10万嘛。 -BayFamily- ♂ (44 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:38:27

• 是啊, 所以你说的那个什么BALANCE是不对的. 要赔多少 -冬里- ♀ (11 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:39:45

• 怎么不对了，对于全系统而言，赔的总额就是10万元。 -BayFamily- ♂ (46 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:42:09

• 当然不对了. -冬里- ♀ (36 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:45:53

• I服了You。呵呵。 -BayFamily- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:47:39

• :)我也服了你. 以为一个赌场就解释华尔街还是太自以为是了点. -冬里- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:52:22

• 赌场就解释华尔街？ -BayFamily- ♂ (74 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:54:27

• There is one problem here, if the gov want to take -729418- ♀ (131 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:48:50

• 政府可能根本填不起这个洞. -冬里- ♀ (127 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:51:19

• right, the worst gov buy all the foreclosure, CDS -729418- ♀ (14 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:54:11

• 没人会BET ON FORECLOSURE, 大家只是BET那些金融机构会破产. -冬里- ♀ (437 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:58:34

• I see. Hedge funds are buyer of the CDS, they -729418- ♀ (71 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:05:54

• 主要是这样. 假如一个HEDGE FUND发行一个CDS给他的BROKER, -冬里- ♀ (438 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:10:20

• ha, hedge funds are the orphans with no one to take -729418- ♀ (5 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:14:42

• 是的。 -BayFamily- ♂ (43 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:51:54

• LEHMAN的CDS还没SETTLE呢. 说赚还太早. -冬里- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:53:31

• I don't think you understood how CDS works either -miat42- ♂ (365 bytes) () 10/03/2008 postreply 06:03:18

• 越看越糊涂：一个房子只需买一份保险，怎么会超过一个CDS呢？ -iask- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 23:11:53

• 如果一个房子卖了100个CDS, 它的保费不是只能收1% ？ -iask- ♀ (54 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 23:17:00

• 美国房地产总值为20万亿 -BayFamily- ♂ (213 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 19:19:33

• who told you CDS only covers RE -大猪头- ♂ (20 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:00:56

• 猪头兄，说话客气点。 -BayFamily- ♂ (64 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:03:15

• no they are not -大猪头- ♂ (98 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:09:16

• 好了, 有人出来支持我了. BAY兄弟一头钻进零和游戏出不来了. -冬里- ♀ (13 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:11:13

• right now, nobody can tell us how much the loss will be -大猪头- ♂ (41 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:21:00

• probably his understanding of 零和游戏 is counter -冬里- ♀ (121 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:31:26

• just wait for M兄出穴 :-) -dca- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:23:32

• zero sum of nobody bankrupt, not aero sum otherwise. -729418- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:31:28

• 有人破产还是zero sum 啊。 -BayFamily- ♂ (78 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:36:49

• 不是零和的衍生产品很少。 -bayfamily- ♂ (81 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:32:48

• CDS不是OPTION. 这是一种非常常见的误解. -冬里- ♀ (51 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:42:48

• CDS是SWAP，还是零和啊。没听说过不是零和的SWAP -BayFamily- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:48:06

• CDS是和人寿保险一样的东西. 是个不对称的SWAP, 当然不可能零和 -冬里- ♀ (359 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:55:42

• 这个懂了 -风花雪月~- ♀ (4 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 21:01:30

• 这不是和我一开始说的一样吗？ -BayFamily- ♂ (220 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 21:10:22

• 完全不一样. -冬里- ♀ (158 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 21:14:45

• Someone made huge money from CDS market nowadays -Aceofspades- ♀ (143 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:43:35

• 终于有人出来替我说话了。呵呵。 -BayFamily- ♂ (63 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:50:08

• I think you are right, it is still a zero sum game -Aceofspades- ♀ (53 bytes) () 10/02/2008 postreply 20:52:27

• Our trading desk made 35 million yestday from CDS/CDX -miat42- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/03/2008 postreply 06:20:37