Annual death rate under vaccination

You can't use 2020 vs 2021 as annual death rate cut off. It created biased variation due to vaccine was not widely available until May. You should use rolling forward looking projection based on current run rate. Take Santa Clara county for example, it's close to herd immunity now with 72% fully vaccinated. Everything is open and no mask requirement. The current death rate is 2 per day due to unvaccinated people. You can redo your model now -:)

 

 

所有跟帖： 

• 唉，这算不错了。LZ以前曾发过一个贴子，用首次疫苗公开接种的日子当切点，来比较前后疫情变化，说打疫苗后更糟了 -fuz- ♂ (0 bytes) () 06/26/2021 postreply 11:17:51

• This is simply wrong. 做人要有底线。 -nshen6- ♀ (0 bytes) () 06/26/2021 postreply 11:58:20

• + 做人要有底线 -TBz- ♂ (0 bytes) () 06/26/2021 postreply 13:04:46

• 你歪曲了不是。我是说效果甚微，就是说这个效果太小，死亡曲线上肉眼观察不出来。 -solo1- ♂ (0 bytes) () 06/26/2021 postreply 13:05:45

• 想起一个类比：计划生育后，中国人口继续增长。 -Shine20- ♀ (47 bytes) () 06/26/2021 postreply 14:21:58