COVID可能在12月30日之前每天杀死2900人

来源: 长青311 于 2020-10-05 19:20:24 [档案] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读：次 (15141 bytes)

应该还是不要轻视新冠为好，webmd 今天刚刚发的文，预测到年底新冦死亡人数上升到36万人。希望不要发生。

戴口罩，常洗手。

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10月5日，下午6:27

某个计算机模型预测，在未来几个月中，美国每天与冠状病毒相关的死亡人数可能会急剧上升，从现在的每天770人增加到10月底的每天1100多人；到11月底每天2,000人; 到12月底每天2,900人。

这些数字来自华盛顿大学的健康指标与评估研究所。到年底的预测为死亡人数每天2,900人，超过了4月中旬在大流行最严重时期，实际每日死亡人数约2,290的峰值。

国际健康监测中心是一个广泛引用的基于数据的组织，它对冠状病毒和其他健康威胁进行预测。它根据天气等不断变化的信息、人们对疾病的了解以及人们的行动如何影响它做出预测。

“每日死亡，”IHME说，“是流行病蔓延的最佳指标，尽管感染和死亡之间通常存在17-21天的滞后。 ”

国际卫生保健中心一直说，冠状病毒死亡和病例可以通过更广泛地使用口罩来降低。目前的预测是根据口罩使用率约50%计算的。

据国际卫生监测中心称，如果美国存在全民戴口罩的使用，与冠状病毒有关的每日死亡人数将降至1,146人。

卫生当局预测死亡人数和病例数量将在秋季和冬季上升，因为寒冷的天气将驱动人们呆在室内，病毒在室内传播更容易。此外，流感季节和COVID-19大流行病结合，给美国造成了双管健康问题。

“我们需要穷追到底，度过今年的秋天和冬天，因为这并不容易，”。上个月，安东尼·法希博士在与哈佛医学院的医生的网上讨论中表示。

目前，国际高管监测中心预计到年底将有36万人死于冠状病毒。

WEBMD.com

COVID Could Kill 2,900 Daily By Dec. 30, Computer Model Says

Oct. 5, 6:27 p.m.

A computer model projects daily coronavirus-related deaths in the United States could rise sharply in coming months, going from around 770 now to more than 1,100 daily by the end of October; 2,000 daily by the end of November; and 2,900 daily by the end of December.

Those numbers come from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The end-of-the year projection of 2,900 exceeds the mid-April peak of around 2,290 actual daily deaths -- during the worst stretch of the pandemic,

The IHME is a widely cited, data-based organization that provides projections on the coronavirus and other health threats. It makes forecasts based on changing information such as weather, what is known about a disease, and how people’s actions affect it.

“Daily deaths,” the IHME says, “is the best indicator of the progression of the pandemic, although there is generally a 17-21 day lag between infection and deaths.”

The IHME has consistently said that coronavirus deaths and cases could be brought down by wider use of face masks. The current projections are based on face mask usage of around 50%.

If universal face mask usage existed in the United States, the IHME said, coronavirus-related daily deaths could decrease to about 1,146 at the end of the year.

Health authorities have projected deaths and case counts will rise in the fall and winter because cold weather will drive people indoors, where the virus spreads more easily. Also, the combination of flu season and the COVID-19 pandemic creates a double-barreled health problem for the United States.

“We need to hunker down and get through this fall and winter because it’s not going to be easy,” Dr. Anthony Fauci said last month in an online discussion with doctors from Harvard Medical School.

The IHME is currently projecting around 360,000 coronavirus-related deaths by the end of the year.”