救救孩子

来源: 石头村于 2022-02-10 04:18:36 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读：次 (87794 bytes)

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这是从《北美保守评论》林伟雄医生那里看来的关于英格兰青少年死亡率的数据，是两个年龄组在2021年前十个月的根据疫苗状态的每十万人的死亡率。我专门去网站检查了数据来源，是英国官方的人口统计数字，权威性应该是不容置疑的。英国作为最早完成全面免疫接种的国家，数据的准确性和透明度比较高，所以这个数据的结果应该是可信的。就是说英国人民勇于牺牲自己为全世界提供了一个可以分析疫苗的利弊得失的数据库。

首先解释一下死亡率的意思，就是这段时间之内英格兰的所有死亡人数，可以是任何原因：疾病，交通事故，运动伤害，自杀，或者猝死等等，这样就避免了死亡是否是疫苗副作用的争论。时间段是从2021年一月一号到十月三十一号，分组的唯一区别就是是否打疫苗。所以如果疫苗基本上没有副作用的话，死亡是一种随机事件，两组应该没有统计上的显著性差异。但根据林医生的数据，可以看到整个趋势很明显，死亡率随着打疫苗的针数上升（两针比一针高），随著年龄减小上升（年纪越小打完疫苗后死亡率增加越显著）。我检查了原始数据，里面的比例是准确的，当然他只选取了最年轻的两个年龄组：10-14及15-19岁，主要应该是因为这两个年龄组最明显。因为青少年本来就属于这种病毒风险极低，死亡率极低群体，一旦疫苗有了副作用死亡人数增加就很容易看出来。老年人本身就死亡率高，多死了一些人很难从死亡数据上看出来。

在数据里面，没有打疫苗的全部归为一类，而打了疫苗的分为四大类：只打一针并超过21天的；只打一针21天之内的；打了两针并且第二针超过21天；打了两针第二针没有超过21天的。林医生选取的是打完疫苗21天后的数据，我想原因在于打完疫苗21天之内只是一个暂时的状态，过几天就会进入21天组，所以这个组别的人数相对也比较少。所有的组别之间都呈统计学上显著差异，所以可以下结论不是抽样随机性误差，唯一的解释只能是因为疫苗原因导致了青少年死亡率的增加。其实几个月前也是根据英国的数据曾经有过一篇引起广泛关注的报道，就是2021从青少年开始注射疫苗开始，几个月的数据显示英国青少年的死亡率比起2020同期几乎增加了50%。当然后来又出来了别的报道来纠正这种说法。不过不是说事实不准确，而是说英国前些年的青少年死亡人数还有比2021还高的时候。所以是一种正常的波动。但如果将以前的青少年死亡增加报道和现在的死亡率一对照，二者相当一致，证明早期报道的疫苗导致青少年死亡增加并非空穴来风。唯一可能不太准确的是10-14岁打完两针后的死亡率，因为这个群体目前只有1千多人，随机偏差会比较大，而千分之2.38是一个相当高的死亡率了，可能有人会觉得这个数字有点离谱。随著人数的增加死亡率肯定会在一定范围内变化，所以到时候不一定有千分之2.38这么高。我将所有10-14岁的打疫苗的作为一个群体，死亡率是十万分之39.9，与非疫苗组的4.58差异非常显著，也明显高于15-19岁年龄组两针疫苗的32.8.

当然，林医生没有呈现别的年龄组的数据，我初略地看了一下各个年龄组的数据，可以大概描述一下。我将群体分为不打疫苗和打疫苗两大类，然后计算群体死亡率。在20-30岁范围，不打疫苗组的死亡率略微低于疫苗组，但不具有统计学显著性。超过30岁，不打疫苗组的死亡率开始超过打疫苗组，并且年龄越大，差异越显著，当然年龄越大的群体死亡率肯定也是越来越高。我们都知道这次的病毒的致死率和年龄显著相关，所以这些数据看起来很一致，就是高风险的群体从死亡率似乎看不出疫苗的副作用，或者说看起来是利大于弊。但在风险低的群体里面，副作用越来越明显，到了青少年之中明显看来弊大于利了。当然这个很好理解，如果一个群体本身死亡率高，即使疫苗有一些副作用导致的死亡，如果没有显著高过病毒本身增加的死亡，那么我们从死亡率是看不出来的。如果我们认为英国的大数据没有被篡改的话，结论就很明显了。疫苗的副作用明显存在，并且在青少年中，因为疫苗导致的死亡远远超过了病毒本身导致的死亡。

那么这些数据除了表明对低风险人群的副作用外，是否能够证明疫苗对高龄人群的保护很显著呢？其实不一定，我会具体分析为什么。因为疫苗和病毒的政治化，所以很多相关数据其实是被操纵了的，所以不得已才用死亡率来看疫苗的副作用。但这个比较有一个先天缺陷使得数据会极大地趋向于显示疫苗组明显低于非疫苗组。就是不打疫苗的人都是整个时间段都是不打疫苗，而疫苗组的人数是逐渐增加。最后计算死亡率的是时候却是按打疫苗的总人数，而这批人相当一段时间是处于非疫苗状态，所以在这段时间之内的死亡人数都被计数到非疫苗之中，导致非疫苗人群的死亡率会显著高于疫苗人群。举一个例子，如15-19岁人群组，正常十个月死亡率为万分之一。随机分为两组：非疫苗组和疫苗组。但非疫苗组一开始就是一百万人，十个月下来就是死亡100人。疫苗组是每个月加十万人（并不真打疫苗），到第十个月也是一百万人，可到时候疫苗组的死亡人数只有55人，这样算下来非疫苗组的死亡率明显高于疫苗组。但两组都没有任何处理，唯一差别就是取样方法的差异，结果导致本来同样的人群却变成有显著差异的两个组。原因在于疫苗组的人员是渐渐增加，但死亡率是根据最后的人数算的。可见我们分析死亡率有一个先天缺陷就会导致结果趋向疫苗组，除非在疫苗组引入一个疫苗注射时间的系数来调整，比如六月一号加入的在最后统计中只能算二分之一个人。死亡率越高，两组的差别越大。如果一个高龄群体一百万人，每个月随机抽五万人进疫苗组，如果每月死亡1%的人，十个月下来，到时候非疫苗组和疫苗组都是五十万人，可死亡人数之比却是七万多对两万多。这就是我对疫苗在高风险人群中到底起到了多少有效保护存疑的原因，但即使在如此不利的情况下，青少年疫苗组还明显超出了非疫苗组的死亡率，可见实际死亡率应该更高，而这些更高的死亡率只能归因于疫苗。

那么我们就需要问一下美国的CDC及FDA，为什么要在没有足够信息的情况下强推小孩子打疫苗？在前段时间FDA批准疫苗用于5-12岁小孩子的时候，虽然有不少专家谈到了副作用的问题，也强调了青少年本身就是低风险，但专家组的最终结论还是利大于弊批准了疫苗应用于小孩。当英国的大数据出来后，我想问一下那些专家们，利大于弊是如何得出的？英国的数据根本就没有疫苗的副作用，就是一个死亡率和死者的疫苗状态，这个死亡数字比起有多少人死于疫苗副作用来说显然更难做假。因为死于疫苗副作用可以通过各种定义来改变人数，但多少人死亡却不容易改动。FDA现在居然还要进一步批准将疫苗应用于六个月到五岁的小孩，我已经完全无语了。为什么在没有明显的好处的情况下还要一再将副作用不明的疫苗强行应用在风险极低的群体？在英国数据已经表明年龄越小潜在的危害更大的情况下，到底居心何在？我只能呼吁：救救孩子。

下面就是原始的excel数据。我也没有时间分析所有的图表，所有上述数据都来自referencetable 31中的table 9. 来源就是下面的英国统计办公室官方网站。

Vaccination status	Age group	Person-years	Deaths involving COVID-19	Non-COVID-19 deaths	All deaths
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	10-14	6,648	0	3	3
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	15-19	174,667	0	32	32
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	20-24	259,467	4	53	57
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	25-29	266,233	2	89	91
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	30-34	270,687	5	129	134
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	35-39	296,112	10	245	255
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	40-44	319,798	9	412	421
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	45-49	365,756	27	690	717
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	50-54	439,858	52	1,331	1,383
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	55-59	452,574	84	2,135	2,219
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	60-64	405,762	141	3,076	3,217
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	65-69	351,500	203	4,230	4,433
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	70-74	348,157	359	6,971	7,330
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	75-79	260,820	741	8,948	9,689
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	80-84	166,968	1,359	10,456	11,815
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	85-89	103,068	1,701	11,658	13,359
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	90+	60,329	2,062	14,093	16,155
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	10-14	18,539	2	2	4
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	15-19	88,706	0	5	5
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	20-24	109,827	0	13	13
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	25-29	110,795	2	20	22
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	30-34	110,958	3	31	34
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	35-39	123,075	8	42	50
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	40-44	131,044	3	62	65
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	45-49	145,567	12	138	150
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	50-54	168,786	19	230	249
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	55-59	171,510	43	355	398
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	60-64	151,864	62	507	569
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	65-69	132,331	113	762	875
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	70-74	131,105	224	1,280	1,504
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	75-79	97,510	458	1,648	2,106
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	80-84	60,401	779	2,052	2,831
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	85-89	36,818	925	2,485	3,410
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	90+	21,495	1,237	3,249	4,486
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	10-14	1,678	0	4	4
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	15-19	127,842	1	41	42
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	20-24	359,959	2	69	71
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	25-29	427,061	8	108	116
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	30-34	480,574	11	183	194
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	35-39	589,849	14	309	323
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	40-44	720,804	33	594	627
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	45-49	852,707	58	1,120	1,178
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	50-54	1,129,045	100	2,261	2,361
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	55-59	1,194,925	222	3,976	4,198
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	60-64	1,107,106	311	6,116	6,427
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	65-69	1,030,612	451	9,126	9,577
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	70-74	1,128,526	798	16,431	17,229
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	75-79	896,876	992	22,338	23,330
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	80-84	677,380	1,277	30,126	31,403
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	85-89	422,042	1,237	33,571	34,808
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	90+	236,443	1,371	40,685	42,056
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	10-14	494	0	0	0
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	15-19	43,091	0	0	0
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	20-24	96,399	0	10	10
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	25-29	100,587	0	6	6
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	30-34	102,598	0	15	15
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	35-39	116,463	0	27	27
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	40-44	127,130	0	61	61
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	45-49	141,171	1	111	112
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	50-54	167,271	0	189	189
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	55-59	170,997	3	304	307
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	60-64	152,535	2	470	472
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	65-69	133,284	8	624	632
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	70-74	137,270	10	1,091	1,101
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	75-79	101,149	15	1,440	1,***
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	80-84	70,858	35	1,796	1,831
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	85-89	42,909	56	2,019	2,075
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	90+	24,260	43	2,640	2,683
Unvaccinated	10-14	2,094,711	2	94	96
Unvaccinated	15-19	1,587,072	18	142	160
Unvaccinated	20-24	1,253,977	31	189	220
Unvaccinated	25-29	1,246,537	55	282	337
Unvaccinated	30-34	1,130,675	101	424	525
Unvaccinated	35-39	1,082,525	189	613	802
Unvaccinated	40-44	939,699	239	898	1,137
Unvaccinated	45-49	850,696	503	1,510	2,013
Unvaccinated	50-54	758,182	928	2,372	3,300
Unvaccinated	55-59	699,511	1,430	3,362	4,792
Unvaccinated	60-64	539,511	2,184	4,366	6,550
Unvaccinated	65-69	378,356	2,785	5,381	8,166
Unvaccinated	70-74	305,728	3,909	7,297	11,206
Unvaccinated	75-79	166,159	4,741	7,628	12,369
Unvaccinated	80-84	76,113	5,501	7,915	13,416
Unvaccinated	85-89	49,226	6,126	8,662	14,788
Unvaccinated	90+	34,169	6,836	10,550	17,386

Source: Office for National Statistics, National Immunisation Management Service

Notes:
1. Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures based on deaths that occurred between 1 January and 31 October 2021 and were registered by 10 November 2021. These figures represent death occurrences, there can be a delay between the date a death occurred and the date a death was registered. More information can be found in our impact of registration delays release.
2. Deaths were defined using the International Classification of Diseases, tenth revision (ICD-10). Deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) are defined as those with an underlying cause, or any mention of, ICD-10 codes U07.1 (COVID-19 virus identified) or U07.2 (COVID-19, virus not identified). Please note, this differs from the definition used in the majority of mortality outputs.
3. Age is defined on the first day of the month.
4. The counts of deaths and person-years are for people included in the Public Health Data Asset, a linked dataset of people resident in England, who could be linked to the 2011 Census and GP Patient Register. This dataset covers approximately 79% of the population in England aged 10+. These are used to calculate the age-standardised mortality rates in Table 8.