昨晚薄少帅对IREN的Fundamental Analysis (FA)方法，实在是好棒。给他交份我的作业—— DELL's valuations. 请少帅和大家指正！
P.S. 这篇文章不是荐股，请注重于我的分析，提出哪里可以修正的建议，谢谢！
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1， Net profit margin = Net income/Total Revenue
a) w/o IREN’s $5.8B hardware purchasing & TTM Q2 2025
- Total Rev = $92.6B
- Net income = $4.3B
==> Net profit margin = 4.3/92.6 = 4.7%
b) w/ IREN’s $5.8B hardware purchasing & TTM Q2 2026
- IREN’s payment structure for DELL: public disclosures don’t specify an exact date or single payment for the full $5.8B. Instead, the contract appears structured around phased deliveries and payments, aligned with the hardware deployment timeline (through 2026).
- Based on the above info, conservatively, I’m assuming there will be a phased out $2B payment from IREN to DELL (i.e., 1/3 of the total payments)
- Total Rev = $100.5B (assuming 8.5% YoY on $92.6B) + $2B = $102.5B
==> YoY Total Rev growth based on $92.6 = (102.5-92.6)/92.6 = 10.7%
- Net income w/o $2B payment = $5.4B (assuming 25% YoY on $4.3B)
- Operating income from the $2B payment = 2*25% = $0.5B
- Tax = $0.5B*20% = $0.1B
- Net income w/ $2B payment = $5.4+$(0.5-0.1) = $5.8B
==> Net profit margin = 5.8/102.5 = 5.7%
==> Net income YoY = (5.8-4.3)/4.3 = 35%
Takeaways on “Net profit margin” ---- a) the 2B incremental high-margin AI/server revenue drives leverage, net income growth 3.3x faster than revenue (i.e., 35% vs. 10.7%) due to strong gross margins and operating scale, and b) even without the $2B payment, the net income growth 3.0x faster than revenue (i.e., 25% vs. 8.5%) is quite impressive.
2, EV/EBITDA
- Market cap = $106B
- Total debt = $28B
- Cash & equivalents = $10B
- EBITDA = $11B
- EV = 106+28-10 = $124B
==> EV/EBITDA = 124/11 = 11.3
- SMCI EV/EBITDA TTM Q2 2026 = 15.8
Takeaway on EV/EBITDA--- Dell trades at a 29% discount to SMCI on EV/EBITDA
3, Margin of Safety
- Assuming 15% YoY growth for current EBITDA @ $11B, and discount rate @10%
==> Intrinsic value NPV for 5-yr = $199B
Takeaway on “margin of safety” --- you’re paying $124B for a business worth $199B, an almost 60% cushion
Merry Christmas! 哈！
