学着薄少帅的方式，给DELL做个FA

昨晚薄少帅对IREN的Fundamental Analysis (FA)方法，实在是好棒。给他交份我的作业—— DELL's valuations. 请少帅和大家指正！

P.S. 这篇文章不是荐股，请注重于我的分析，提出哪里可以修正的建议，谢谢！

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1， Net profit margin = Net income/Total Revenue 

a) w/o IREN’s $5.8B hardware purchasing & TTM Q2 2025 

-   Total Rev = $92.6B

-   Net income = $4.3B

==> Net profit margin = 4.3/92.6 = 4.7%

 

b) w/ IREN’s $5.8B hardware purchasing & TTM Q2 2026

-   IREN’s payment structure for DELL: public disclosures don’t specify an exact date or single payment for the full $5.8B. Instead, the contract appears structured around phased deliveries and payments, aligned with the hardware deployment timeline (through 2026). 

- Based on the above info, conservatively, I’m assuming there will be a phased out $2B payment from IREN to DELL (i.e., 1/3 of the total payments)

-   Total Rev = $100.5B (assuming 8.5% YoY on $92.6B) + $2B = $102.5B 

==> YoY Total Rev growth based on $92.6 = (102.5-92.6)/92.6 = 10.7%

-   Net income w/o $2B payment = $5.4B (assuming 25% YoY on $4.3B) 

-   Operating income from the $2B payment = 2*25% = $0.5B

-   Tax = $0.5B*20% = $0.1B

-   Net income w/ $2B payment = $5.4+$(0.5-0.1) = $5.8B 

==> Net profit margin = 5.8/102.5 = 5.7%

==> Net income YoY = (5.8-4.3)/4.3 = 35%

 

Takeaways on “Net profit margin” ---- a) the 2B incremental high-margin AI/server revenue drives leverage, net income growth 3.3x faster than revenue (i.e., 35% vs. 10.7%) due to strong gross margins and operating scale, and b) even without the $2B payment, the net income growth 3.0x faster than revenue (i.e., 25% vs. 8.5%) is quite impressive.

 

2,   EV/EBITDA

- Market cap = $106B

- Total debt = $28B

- Cash & equivalents = $10B

- EBITDA = $11B

- EV = 106+28-10 = $124B

==> EV/EBITDA = 124/11 = 11.3

- SMCI EV/EBITDA TTM Q2 2026 = 15.8

 

Takeaway on EV/EBITDA--- Dell trades at a 29% discount to SMCI on EV/EBITDA

 

3,   Margin of Safety

- Assuming 15% YoY growth for current EBITDA @ $11B, and discount rate @10%

==> Intrinsic value NPV for 5-yr = $199B

 

Takeaway on “margin of safety” --- you’re paying $124B for a business worth $199B, an almost 60% cushion

 

 

Merry Christmas! 哈！