One really has to ask: what is the other side of

of currency collapse?

Investment is all about philosophy. So the philosophy of today's invetment strategy is that: Government Debt (and private debt) can not go up forever. Someday, there will be no buyer of treasury. One can only hope that "someday" is not tomorrow.

So in the event of high / hyper inflation:

1, 你的贷款是30年的,还是5年,7年arm,甚至浮动利率?现在是不是为了预防万一转成30年?

Lock your rate to 15/30 years.

2, 利率涨了,房价按说也会涨。但这次危机是美国史上包括29前所未有的房地产大崩盘,冲击前所未有,银行超小心,所以房价到那时真会涨吗?如果本来就没怎么涨,加上高利率,房价真会涨吗?

That is highly debatable. What is the real purchasing power of housing under hyperinflation even the nominal value of the housing goes up?

But onething for sure, real estate like every physical assets, can keep value, no matter how long it will take. The questions, can one keep it during those years?

(p.s. how many Jewish people kept there real estates holding from weimar republic after WWII?

In this era, what happens if there would be a Sino-US war? Not very possible but not entirely impossible.)

3, 通胀租金能涨,但人们工资涨的过租金吗?如果没有,怎么涨租金?租金高了会不会不好租了?

Dream about rate of salary rise would be higher that rent rise. High inflation depress business profit so they will layoff people to cut cost. Unemployment rate will rise. So rent can rise due to everything else rises but vacancy rate will be much higher. People cut corners to buy food and energy first.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujpmhGUNjKk&feature=relmfu

The final question is what is on the otherside of hyperinflation? That takes time to do research and answer can be anything from impossible to doomsday scenario or something in between.

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喜欢这样有危机感的分析,谢谢。 -SunshineInCA- 给 SunshineInCA 发送悄悄话 (301 bytes) () 04/09/2012 postreply 21:15:38

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