Observing market like Peter Lynch

At beginning of this year when all signs pointing to declining RE, many were still having fanfares about RE investing.

I am in RE also. The blind enthusiasm reminded me the 2000 tech bubble. So here goes the story:

One of my properties needs new touch up paints. Since I have several properties, I standardized every thing as much as possible (A trick for landlord to know). I felt one kind of paint from Pulte Home is real nice with consistent quality so I used that as the standard paint for all my properties.

I went to the paint store asking: Can I buy a couple of 5 gallon Pulte Mist?
The store clerk replied: No, we only have one left.
I said: What? How long do I have to wait for that?
The clerk replied: Don’t know man. We have not seen the batch coming for awhile.
I said: Can you check to see if any another stores have it?
The clerk: No, I do not need to check. Mine is the only store has it.
I said: You are telling me that Pulte does not order more of those paint?
The clerk: Yeap.
I said: Let me have the last 5 gallon can.
So I paid and left. 5 gallon was really enough to do the job.

Next day, I bought Pulte and several other home builder’s Leap Put options, some thing like 100 contracts.

You know the rest story if you check the PHM, KBH, RYL, TOL, BZH…..

所有跟帖： 

• 高！实在是高！ -小小石头- ♂ (0 bytes) () 07/10/2007 postreply 12:33:15

• Wooooooooooow, great move. -JR98- ♂ (12 bytes) () 07/10/2007 postreply 13:15:24

• You are more in RE timing than in RE. -miat42- ♂ (0 bytes) () 07/10/2007 postreply 13:33:27

• 对市场的嗅觉敏锐... -紫燕- ♀ (0 bytes) () 07/10/2007 postreply 13:34:49

• You are superior. -U6D3- ♂ (0 bytes) () 07/10/2007 postreply 13:38:00

• is this really true that there is no Pulte Mist paint? -pediatrician2- ♂ (403 bytes) () 07/10/2007 postreply 13:59:00

• Pulte does not buy their paint in HD. At least in my market. -山高月小- ♂ (137 bytes) () 07/10/2007 postreply 14:18:25

• how did u find those infor? -U6D3- ♂ (0 bytes) () 07/10/2007 postreply 14:20:03

• what information are you pointing? -山高月小- ♂ (248 bytes) () 07/10/2007 postreply 14:29:50

• Thanks. -U6D3- ♂ (43 bytes) () 07/10/2007 postreply 14:32:43

• Thank you all for reply and praise. Seeing the trend is importan -山高月小- ♂ (953 bytes) () 07/10/2007 postreply 14:14:50

• Nod nod. PF PF. "dull" is just want Beffet -JR98- ♂ (78 bytes) () 07/10/2007 postreply 19:17:35

• Thanks JR98. I wont be there in WB rank for sure. -山高月小- ♂ (144 bytes) () 07/10/2007 postreply 21:00:02

• cool, really cool, -longtermInvestor- ♂ (0 bytes) () 07/10/2007 postreply 14:25:11

• yes this is a typical Peter Lynch way -李李财- ♂ (0 bytes) () 07/11/2007 postreply 22:17:42