Observing market like Peter Lynch

At beginning of this year when all signs pointing to declining RE, many were still having fanfares about RE investing.

I am in RE also. The blind enthusiasm reminded me the 2000 tech bubble. So here goes the story:

One of my properties needs new touch up paints. Since I have several properties, I standardized every thing as much as possible (A trick for landlord to know). I felt one kind of paint from Pulte Home is real nice with consistent quality so I used that as the standard paint for all my properties.

I went to the paint store asking: Can I buy a couple of 5 gallon Pulte Mist?
The store clerk replied: No, we only have one left.
I said: What? How long do I have to wait for that?
The clerk replied: Don’t know man. We have not seen the batch coming for awhile.
I said: Can you check to see if any another stores have it?
The clerk: No, I do not need to check. Mine is the only store has it.
I said: You are telling me that Pulte does not order more of those paint?
The clerk: Yeap.
I said: Let me have the last 5 gallon can.
So I paid and left. 5 gallon was really enough to do the job.

Next day, I bought Pulte and several other home builder’s Leap Put options, some thing like 100 contracts.

You know the rest story if you check the PHM, KBH, RYL, TOL, BZH…..