my question for noconfusion or other TA guru

This is an sincere question, or theoretical question: if you know the market is going up because economy is recovering, then will trading in and out beat buy and hold? When I do buy and hold, I am always 100% invested through thin and thick, I have been 100% invested for the last 3 years, so far it has been working out great. I am actually more than 100% most of the time (leveraged). Just for the sake of comparison, only considering 100% invested, buy and hold. When you are in and out, sometimes you make some mistake, lose a few points, some times you are not getting back on the train in time, you miss  a couple of points. The most significant factor is when you are not 100% in, then your rate of return is dragged a lot by idling capacity. The magic of investing is compounding, if you are not 100% in, you are not compounding at all. So what is your thought on this?

所有跟帖： 

• a few points -noconfusion- ♂ (910 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 11:49:19

• so the most important thing is general market direction -longterminvestor- ♂ (295 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 12:06:51

• well -noconfusion- ♂ (932 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 12:27:21

• what do you do? IT? what sub category? -longterminvestor- ♂ (66 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 12:32:44

• 回复：what do you do? IT? what sub category? -noconfusion- ♂ (232 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 12:44:54

• Business Consulting -greenfieldcn- ♂ (331 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 15:12:28

• Exactly my question too -Conehead- ♂ (161 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 12:31:50

• thanks for the compliment -noconfusion- ♂ (438 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 12:42:30

• That's why I said before that you are -Conehead- ♂ (105 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 12:46:40

• it's age/worth dependent -noconfusion- ♂ (934 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 12:52:34

• That's the very reason I don't trade -Conehead- ♂ (250 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 13:02:26

• I can imagine -noconfusion- ♂ (332 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 13:06:01

• In fairness, you did some in and out too :-) -Conehead- ♂ (46 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 12:37:14

• that is all on margin, that is the difference, -longterminvestor- ♂ (266 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 12:49:32

• How does that 7-year ban thing affect -Conehead- ♂ (52 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 12:55:27

• no effect, that is off Florida coast, I am fully leveraged -longterminvestor- ♂ (52 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 15:22:40

• it has always been banned like that. -longterminvestor- ♂ (171 bytes) () 12/02/2010 postreply 15:24:36