my question for noconfusion or other TA guru

来源: 2010-12-02 11:21:54 [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

This is an sincere question, or theoretical question: if you know the market is going up because economy is recovering, then will trading in and out beat buy and hold? When I do buy and hold, I am always 100% invested through thin and thick, I have been 100% invested for the last 3 years, so far it has been working out great. I am actually more than 100% most of the time (leveraged). Just for the sake of comparison, only considering 100% invested, buy and hold. When you are in and out, sometimes you make some mistake, lose a few points, some times you are not getting back on the train in time, you miss  a couple of points. The most significant factor is when you are not 100% in, then your rate of return is dragged a lot by idling capacity. The magic of investing is compounding, if you are not 100% in, you are not compounding at all. So what is your thought on this?