1980年,以美国当时的平均房价$76,400买的房屋.
2009年,以美国当年的平均房价$270,900卖掉.
毛利润 = $194,500
现在,来考虑通货膨胀的因素:
根据政府统计数字,1980年到2009年的累计通货膨胀率为160.36%.
如果1980年$76,400的房屋按照通货膨胀率升值,在2009年的价值为
$76,400 * (1+160.36%) = $198,915.04
纯粹来源于通货膨胀的房屋利润为
$198,915.04 – $76,400 = $122,515.04
那么在2009年,以$270,900卖掉房屋的人获得的超出通货膨胀的利润为
$270,900 – $198,915.04 = $ 71,984.96
但是,还有一个因素没有考虑进去,1980年买房人的房屋贷款利率是14.005% APR,而2009年买房人的房屋贷款利率是5.1015% APR,因此还需要计算出单纯由于利率降低而造成的房屋的升值.
按照5.1015% APR 的房屋贷款利率计算,2009年的买房人每个月的房贷金额是$1471.10
假如2009年的买房人仍然每个月支付$1471.10的房贷,可是房屋贷款利率却仍然是1980年时的14.005% APR,那么他实际上只能买得起价值$124,206的房屋.
这样,在2009年以$270,900卖掉房屋的人单纯由于利率降低而获得的利润为
$270,900 - $124,206 = $146,694
排除房贷利率从14.005% APR 降低到5.1015% APR 的因素,在2009年以$270,900卖掉房屋的人他的毛利润只有
$194,500 - $146,694 = $47,806
可是纯粹来源于通货膨胀的房屋增值就已经是$122,515.04
也就是说,房主在29年后从房子上获得的增值比通货膨胀少了61%
$47,806 / $122,515.04 = 39%
1 - 39% = 61%
从1980年到2009年,房贷利率从14.005%降低到5.1015%.
现在大约4.50%的房贷利率在29年后的2039年可能比4.50%还低吗?
不太可能.也就是说,现在购买的房屋不太可能像过去29年那样从利率的降低上得到增值(还有可能因为利率的上升而贬值).
假如当时没有花费$76,400买房,而是用$76,400购买了当时的三十年美国政府债券(年利率从10.60%到12.40%),就以年利率10%来做保守的计算,29年总共的利息所得为
$76,400 * 10% * 29 = $221,560
加上本金$76,400,投资美国政府债券的总价值为
$76,400 + $221,560 = $297,960
只计算利息收入,投资美国政府债券的总价值就已经比$270,900的房屋价值多了10%的收益.
在投资美国政府债券的计算中,还没有考虑三十年政府债券的利率从1980年时期的10.60%降低到今天3.80%过程中可能获得的债券价格增值,以及每年的利息再投资的复利效应.
结论,综合通货膨胀和利率变化的因素,在过去29年里买房的收益反而不如投资三十年美国政府债券.
=========
欢迎造访"徐世维的博客"：
依据事实数字，把握市场脉搏，运筹金融世界。
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myindex.php?blogID=48731
Mark McHugh 的原文:
http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/2010/09/13/“shut-up-and-eat-your-paint-chips-kid”-miseducating-america/
“Shut-up and Eat Your Paint Chips, Kid” – Miseducating America
In Open Thread on Monday, September 13, 2010 at 1:49 pm
Without question, the best way to make people love you politically is to throw Tootsie rolls into the crowd. In lieu of sugary treats, making an impassioned plea for education is a close second. No one wants to see their kid grow up to be a potato head, right?
Today we’ll be exploring the mathematics behind the US housing market over the last thirty years to determine how smart we really want our kids to be. If you can successfully complete (or at least understand) the accompanying quiz you’ll have a more thorough understanding of economic realities than every Ivy League professor (including Nobel Laureates) active in government and mainstream media.
Question #1 – Joe and Mary Twelvepack, an average American couple, buy the average American home in 1980. They pay the average American price ($76,400) and take out the average American mortgage. 29 years later, they sell the home to another couple for the 2009 average American price of $270,900. How much did they profit from the sale (assume the mortgage has been paid in full)?
A: If you said $194,500 ride the pony, big guy.
Author’s note: If you only aspire to be as intelligent as Uncle Sam wants you to be, STOP HERE.
Question #2 – According to the BLS, cumulative inflation from 1980 to 2009 was 160.36%. a)What is the simple inflation adjusted value of the house? b)How much of the Twelvepack’s profit was the result of inflation and c)how much was their profit after inflation?
a) $198,915.04 ($76,400 * 2.6036)
b) $122,515.04 ($198,915.04 – 76,400)
c) $ 71,984.96 ($270,900 – $198,915.04)
C’mon, chin-up buckaroo. The Twelvepacks still made money. Beating inflation is the name of the game, right?
Well, there is one other factor we should probably consider: The effect interest rates had on the value of the Twelvepack’s “investment”. After all, re-fiing the house at ever lower interest rates is how they paid for Mary’s boob job, Joe’s rehab, that boat in the driveway, and the kids’ braces. God knows it wasn’t their ability to earn more.
Question #3 –The average 1980 mortgage was 14.005% APR (13.74% w/ 1.8 pts.) and the couple that bought it, the Fourpacks, got 5.1015% APR (5.04% w/ 0.7 pts plus cool cash from Uncle Sam) Their 30-year fixed mortgage payments are $1471.10. a)How big of a mortgage would that payment get if interest rates were the same as in 1980? b)How much of the Twelvepack’s “profit” can be directly attributed to the change in interest rates?
a) $124,206 (you’ll need Excel to calculate this if you’re not Korean)
b) $146,694 ($270,900 – $124,206)
Question #4 –So there you have it. 74% of the Twelvepack’s gain can be attributed to the 9% drop in interest rate. When you strip out the interest rate effect, the house underperformed inflation by more than 60% over 30 years (and that’s excluding all other costs associated with the American dream), which of course means this wasn’t actually an investment at all. How many Americans understand this?
A: Not many.
Somehow the mathematical realities of the US housing market have completely escaped the education-loving American public as they continue to assume that the next thirty years will yield results similar to the last thirty. Utterly freaking impossible. We can’t drop mortgage interest rates 9% again (currently 4.4%), but we should expect houses to continue to underperform inflation.
Despite our perception, the earth turns. That’s what makes day and night, and that’s why it seems like the sun travels through our sky. It took human beings more than 2,000 years to fully embrace that truth. Teaching your children that houses are good investments (‘cuz look how it worked out for you) and they’re lucky to have such low mortgage interest rates is about as enlightened as sacrificing them to Moloch so the Sun will continue to rise.
Right now, the powers that be are bazooka-ing tootsie rolls into the crowd at an unprecedented rate. So if your child asks you, “Who’s gonna pay for all this?” maybe you should just say, “Shut-up and eat your paint chips, kid.”
***
“The more deflation [sic] the elite, champagne economists throw out there to convince people “your tax dollars really can keep that anvil up in the air,” the more we’re gonna be stuck in the mud for years and years and years….”
~ Rick Santelli (more top-shelf Rick)
“The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly, is to fill the world with fools”
~ Herbert Spencer
***
Sources:
U.S. Home Prices:
http://www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf
30 year fixed mortgage interest rates:
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm
Inflation:
http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl
30 year government bond interest rates:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/GS30.txt
2009年,以美国当年的平均房价$270,900卖掉.
毛利润 = $194,500
现在,来考虑通货膨胀的因素:
根据政府统计数字,1980年到2009年的累计通货膨胀率为160.36%.
如果1980年$76,400的房屋按照通货膨胀率升值,在2009年的价值为
$76,400 * (1+160.36%) = $198,915.04
纯粹来源于通货膨胀的房屋利润为
$198,915.04 – $76,400 = $122,515.04
那么在2009年,以$270,900卖掉房屋的人获得的超出通货膨胀的利润为
$270,900 – $198,915.04 = $ 71,984.96
但是,还有一个因素没有考虑进去,1980年买房人的房屋贷款利率是14.005% APR,而2009年买房人的房屋贷款利率是5.1015% APR,因此还需要计算出单纯由于利率降低而造成的房屋的升值.
按照5.1015% APR 的房屋贷款利率计算,2009年的买房人每个月的房贷金额是$1471.10
假如2009年的买房人仍然每个月支付$1471.10的房贷,可是房屋贷款利率却仍然是1980年时的14.005% APR,那么他实际上只能买得起价值$124,206的房屋.
这样,在2009年以$270,900卖掉房屋的人单纯由于利率降低而获得的利润为
$270,900 - $124,206 = $146,694
排除房贷利率从14.005% APR 降低到5.1015% APR 的因素,在2009年以$270,900卖掉房屋的人他的毛利润只有
$194,500 - $146,694 = $47,806
可是纯粹来源于通货膨胀的房屋增值就已经是$122,515.04
也就是说,房主在29年后从房子上获得的增值比通货膨胀少了61%
$47,806 / $122,515.04 = 39%
1 - 39% = 61%
从1980年到2009年,房贷利率从14.005%降低到5.1015%.
现在大约4.50%的房贷利率在29年后的2039年可能比4.50%还低吗?
不太可能.也就是说,现在购买的房屋不太可能像过去29年那样从利率的降低上得到增值(还有可能因为利率的上升而贬值).
假如当时没有花费$76,400买房,而是用$76,400购买了当时的三十年美国政府债券(年利率从10.60%到12.40%),就以年利率10%来做保守的计算,29年总共的利息所得为
$76,400 * 10% * 29 = $221,560
加上本金$76,400,投资美国政府债券的总价值为
$76,400 + $221,560 = $297,960
只计算利息收入,投资美国政府债券的总价值就已经比$270,900的房屋价值多了10%的收益.
在投资美国政府债券的计算中,还没有考虑三十年政府债券的利率从1980年时期的10.60%降低到今天3.80%过程中可能获得的债券价格增值,以及每年的利息再投资的复利效应.
结论,综合通货膨胀和利率变化的因素,在过去29年里买房的收益反而不如投资三十年美国政府债券.
=========
欢迎造访"徐世维的博客"：
依据事实数字，把握市场脉搏，运筹金融世界。
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myindex.php?blogID=48731
Mark McHugh 的原文:
http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/2010/09/13/“shut-up-and-eat-your-paint-chips-kid”-miseducating-america/
“Shut-up and Eat Your Paint Chips, Kid” – Miseducating America
In Open Thread on Monday, September 13, 2010 at 1:49 pm
Without question, the best way to make people love you politically is to throw Tootsie rolls into the crowd. In lieu of sugary treats, making an impassioned plea for education is a close second. No one wants to see their kid grow up to be a potato head, right?
Today we’ll be exploring the mathematics behind the US housing market over the last thirty years to determine how smart we really want our kids to be. If you can successfully complete (or at least understand) the accompanying quiz you’ll have a more thorough understanding of economic realities than every Ivy League professor (including Nobel Laureates) active in government and mainstream media.
Question #1 – Joe and Mary Twelvepack, an average American couple, buy the average American home in 1980. They pay the average American price ($76,400) and take out the average American mortgage. 29 years later, they sell the home to another couple for the 2009 average American price of $270,900. How much did they profit from the sale (assume the mortgage has been paid in full)?
A: If you said $194,500 ride the pony, big guy.
Author’s note: If you only aspire to be as intelligent as Uncle Sam wants you to be, STOP HERE.
Question #2 – According to the BLS, cumulative inflation from 1980 to 2009 was 160.36%. a)What is the simple inflation adjusted value of the house? b)How much of the Twelvepack’s profit was the result of inflation and c)how much was their profit after inflation?
a) $198,915.04 ($76,400 * 2.6036)
b) $122,515.04 ($198,915.04 – 76,400)
c) $ 71,984.96 ($270,900 – $198,915.04)
C’mon, chin-up buckaroo. The Twelvepacks still made money. Beating inflation is the name of the game, right?
Well, there is one other factor we should probably consider: The effect interest rates had on the value of the Twelvepack’s “investment”. After all, re-fiing the house at ever lower interest rates is how they paid for Mary’s boob job, Joe’s rehab, that boat in the driveway, and the kids’ braces. God knows it wasn’t their ability to earn more.
Question #3 –The average 1980 mortgage was 14.005% APR (13.74% w/ 1.8 pts.) and the couple that bought it, the Fourpacks, got 5.1015% APR (5.04% w/ 0.7 pts plus cool cash from Uncle Sam) Their 30-year fixed mortgage payments are $1471.10. a)How big of a mortgage would that payment get if interest rates were the same as in 1980? b)How much of the Twelvepack’s “profit” can be directly attributed to the change in interest rates?
a) $124,206 (you’ll need Excel to calculate this if you’re not Korean)
b) $146,694 ($270,900 – $124,206)
Question #4 –So there you have it. 74% of the Twelvepack’s gain can be attributed to the 9% drop in interest rate. When you strip out the interest rate effect, the house underperformed inflation by more than 60% over 30 years (and that’s excluding all other costs associated with the American dream), which of course means this wasn’t actually an investment at all. How many Americans understand this?
A: Not many.
Somehow the mathematical realities of the US housing market have completely escaped the education-loving American public as they continue to assume that the next thirty years will yield results similar to the last thirty. Utterly freaking impossible. We can’t drop mortgage interest rates 9% again (currently 4.4%), but we should expect houses to continue to underperform inflation.
Despite our perception, the earth turns. That’s what makes day and night, and that’s why it seems like the sun travels through our sky. It took human beings more than 2,000 years to fully embrace that truth. Teaching your children that houses are good investments (‘cuz look how it worked out for you) and they’re lucky to have such low mortgage interest rates is about as enlightened as sacrificing them to Moloch so the Sun will continue to rise.
Right now, the powers that be are bazooka-ing tootsie rolls into the crowd at an unprecedented rate. So if your child asks you, “Who’s gonna pay for all this?” maybe you should just say, “Shut-up and eat your paint chips, kid.”
***
“The more deflation [sic] the elite, champagne economists throw out there to convince people “your tax dollars really can keep that anvil up in the air,” the more we’re gonna be stuck in the mud for years and years and years….”
~ Rick Santelli (more top-shelf Rick)
“The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly, is to fill the world with fools”
~ Herbert Spencer
***
Sources:
U.S. Home Prices:
http://www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf
30 year fixed mortgage interest rates:
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm
Inflation:
http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl
30 year government bond interest rates:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/GS30.txt
选择“Disable on www.wenxuecity.com”
选择“don't run on pages on this domain”
