Concept of "non-linearity" and cashflow

Since I understand your situation perfectly, you posted a while ago about your goal to break 10M in XX years. If that is indeed your goal. You will not realize that in Bay area. You have to realize it somewhere you can break your equity into multiple portons, then invest in smaller sized properties in that you can make reasonable cash flow. Real estate is 100% cash flow and leverage business. Good school is not investor's primary concern, it's primary home owner's primary concern.

Second issue is "non-linearity". For the past 30 years, Bay area's price curve is linearly up. However, I suspect this linear behavior may not translate into future. Future growth may bend down a little to compensate or pay for past 30 years' excess. However, in some other places, like Miami or Las Vegas or San Diego, their rise was more recent, these cities' development cycle is still in the early linear period. Theirfore, witin the next 20 years, these places will yield better return (price delta) than Bay area.

I don't mean to blindly boast my area, DC area, however, comparing to Bay area, DC area is still at least 15 years earlier in growth cycle, therefore, it will maintain a more linear projection into at least the next 15 years. Therefore, DC area's growth potential is at least "safe" for the next 15 years, until it one day hit California's extreme, then DC area will transition into middle age like California today.

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• 谢谢啦 -BayFamily- ♀ (143 bytes) () 05/03/2007 postreply 15:24:52