买湾区的房子回报总是比股票好!

买湾区的房子回报总是比股票好!
最近本农民经常给朋友们上课，鼓励大家去买房子，不要怕市场一时的起起落落，理由如下：
假如你或本农民要买$100万的房子，downpayment有$20万，其余$80万是贷款。如果你的credit score 跟本农民一样好，起码可以贷到6.0 or 6.25%的 interest only 款 (本农民两个月前贷到5.5%, no fee no cost). 你的 interest cost is 6.0% x $80 万=4.8万。 买房的另外的一项大支出是房地产税=$100万x1.25%=$1.25万。如果我们是长期持有此房子，transaction cost 可以忽略不计。我们可以合理认为 raw total cost = $1.25+$4.8 = $6.05 万/年。如果你能买得起$100万的房子，我想30%的税率是免不了，即使AMT不能使你的房地产税得到减免，interest那部分还是可以减免的。所以true total cost=$6.05-$4.8*0.3=$4.61万/年。
下面我们再来计算一下$100万的房子能带来什么样的收益。根据cnn.com报导的数据，从1949-2006年， 湾区的房地产 average appreciation rate is 4.2%. 在过去20年里，average appreciation rate 是超过5%的。本农民毫不怀疑在未来的20年里，average appreciation rate 仍能保持在5%以上。因此房地产升值带来的收益是$100*0.05=$5万。同时，$100万的房子拿来出租，每月租金$2500/月应该没问题。一年的租金收益是$2500X12=$3万。
好了，该是我们来算total return 的时候了。true gain=raw total gain-total
cost = ($5万+$3万) -$4.61万=$3.39万。 由于我们的down payment is $20万，这是我们的投资额， 所以我们的 return rate is =$3.39/$20=16.95%. 学过finance 的人都知道，S&P500 的long term average return 也就是12%。所以本农民的结论是：买湾区的房子回报总是比股票好!
如有人问，买湾区哪里的房子最合算，my answer is: Windemere in San Ramon!!!. I will give my reasoning in the near future.

所有跟帖： 

• the big assumption could be wrong. -playForever- ♂ (1255 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 00:51:30

• where is house repair and maintenance fee? -xyz100- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 06:37:37

• 银行咋就那么傻？ -屋漏痕- ♂ (375 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 06:04:41

• 银行不傻，但模型不可复制。 -BayFamily- ♀ (210 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 07:28:41

• 银行也有它们自己的Leverage.假定银行储备率是10%， -本命年的猪- ♂ (91 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 10:14:43

• 好像过于简单理想化 -tellwont- ♂ (652 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 06:52:47

• 静态模型不准确，房租，地税，维修费是逐年增长的 -Bayfamily- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 07:24:59

• 不好说，房租常常反而和房价反向 -tellwont- ♂ (106 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 09:38:05

• 回复：静态模型不准确，房租，地税，维修费是逐年增长的 -Iamfarmer- ♀ (195 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 12:40:01

• 你期望的客户群体是谁，能付$3500/月的房租? -无形剑- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 13:29:51

• You need to use the worst case, you still use 2500 -miat42- ♂ (365 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 13:31:52

• 算得不对. -冬里- ♀ (230 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 07:42:21

• 呵呵，这是冬天里的一 -小小石头- ♂ (10 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 07:59:42

• One more inaccuracy -miat42- ♂ (981 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 08:09:30

• 赞一个！自住房和出租房的主要不同之处 -小小石头- ♂ (160 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 08:20:35

• What's so special about $1M house? -skyport- ♂ (31 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 08:38:36

• $1M house is NOT cashflow friendly -miat42- ♂ (375 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 10:47:57

• He's not only an amature investor, but also an -喜欢就好- ♀ (84 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 09:24:42

• Now, I understand the reasons. -playforever- ♂ (683 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 10:26:53

• You will know my reasoning soon. -Iamfarmer- ♀ (136 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 12:49:42

• 回复：买湾区的房子回报总是比股票好! -playforever- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 09:01:55

• What about insurance cost ? -playForever- ♂ (47 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 09:02:35

• Insurance cost is very little -Iamfarmer- ♀ (71 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 12:36:15

• Day dreaming. -U6D3- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 09:11:05

• 一个投资房你为什么非要买100万的？ -一块五一卷- ♂ (90 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 09:14:06

• If he has $1M, he should buy 3,4 lower priced houses -miat42- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 10:54:43

• Because other that he didn't know what an investment -2526- ♂ (18 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 12:32:00

• 回复：一个投资房你为什么非要买100万的？ -Iamfarmer- ♀ (63 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 12:37:07

• 不是针对你的，是说你的计划:) -一块五一卷- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 12:46:52

• you did not list all expenses which may cost up to 40% of the gr -jy101- ♂ (72 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 10:19:09

• 5 years later, Uncle Sam comes with his audit notice -2526- ♂ (92 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 10:21:05

• 作为广告,你的贴子还是蛮成功的.毕竟吸引了这么多眼球. -大丫- ♀ (56 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 12:02:39

• I am NOT realtor -iamfarmer- ♀ (88 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 12:34:47

• i believe you -Bayfamily- ♀ (96 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 12:38:53

• 回复：i believe you -Iamfarmer- ♀ (105 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 12:54:31

• But you did say "you're planning to become a realtor". -喜欢就好- ♀ (64 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 13:02:25

• 回复：But you did say "you're planning to become a realtor". -Iamfarmer- ♀ (94 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 13:06:39

• 最少知道，现在买那里有潜力，学区很棒。 -漩鞘- ♀ (56 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 15:50:15

• 昨晚看到这贴子就知道是个挨砸的. 今天一看大家还算客气的了. 呵呵. -喜欢就好- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 12:26:12

• 刚从San Ramon回来，环境确实不错。但房产税 -清风醉笛斜阳柳- ♀ (76 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 16:24:33

• 但 Traffic is too bad. only one way out to get on Freeway. -playforever- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 16:44:19

• 有那么糟吗?听说很多人是早上6点去上班来躲避traffic的. -清风醉笛斜阳柳- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 16:48:38

• 101- 280- 890 -237- 680- 580 哪个不糟？没听说湾区有顺趟的除非周 -漩鞘- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 16:54:35

• I heard some old houses in San Ramon only has 1% property tax -playForever- ♂ (22 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 16:46:16

• Is there any old houses at all in that area? Looks -清风醉笛斜阳柳- ♀ (48 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 16:50:14

• 回复：刚从San Ramon回来，环境确实不错。但房产税 -湾区新妈妈- ♀ (705 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 17:16:03

• Thanks for your input. We almost felt like -清风醉笛斜阳柳- ♀ (227 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 19:22:11

• 回复：Thanks for your input. We almost felt like -湾区新妈妈- ♀ (246 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 23:05:55

• I know San Ramon. One of my collegues lives there. He has -sea123- ♀ (153 bytes) () 04/12/2007 postreply 19:09:23

• Gospel to Chinese corruptive offciers -Wiserman- ♂ (312 bytes) () 05/31/2007 postreply 14:28:39

• Is San Ramon in 湾区? I am confused. -ladyhz- ♀ (0 bytes) () 05/31/2007 postreply 16:28:52

• Yes, of course. -Iamfarmer- ♀ (0 bytes) () 05/31/2007 postreply 23:03:22

• 很佩服你的固执. 估计你在美国不很久. 只看到了BULL CYCLE -iknw- ♂ (58 bytes) () 05/31/2007 postreply 19:50:40

• This is ridiculous ! -MyTube- ♂ (0 bytes) () 05/31/2007 postreply 21:42:23

• "Past performance does not garantee future results" -MuYuXin- ♂ (80 bytes) () 05/31/2007 postreply 22:01:36

• 可惜对我没啥好处!!! -文学文- ♂ (0 bytes) () 06/01/2007 postreply 07:51:23