美国部分地区房市的拐点已到

来源: jenning 2022-09-01 12:24:30 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 次 (289174 bytes)
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最近一直在关注美国各个都市区的房价指数,因为随着利率的增高,短期内房价下行已是大势,尤其是热点城市,所以一直在关注拐点会在什么时候出现。

这是今天(2022年9月1日)Freddie Mac刚刚发布的美国各都市区房价指数,最新数据到7月份(Freddie Mac一般是这个月底发布上一个月的房价指数,所以8月底发布到7月的房价指数)。

在Freddie Mac房价指数所涵盖的所有382个都市区内,我们来看看最近三个月(5月、6月和7月)的环比房价指数(跟上月相比房价增幅百分比)。以下是各都市区房价涨幅百分比:

Ranking Metro 2022M6~2022M7 2022M5~2022M6 2022M4~2022M5 2021M7~2022M7
1 Napa CA -1.1 -1.1 -0.1 3.6
2 Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA -1.1 -1.1 -0.1 5.4
3 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward CA -0.9 -1.1 -0.1 4.6
4 Santa Rosa CA -0.9 -1.0 0.0 4.8
5 Vallejo-Fairfield CA -0.9 -1.0 0.0 6.0
6 Yakima WA -0.9 -1.1 -0.1 7.5
7 Bremerton-Silverdale WA -0.8 -0.8 0.2 9.7
8 Redding CA -0.8 -0.8 0.1 6.1
9 Chico CA -0.7 -0.9 0.2 6.7
10 Kennewick-Richland WA -0.7 -0.8 0.2 13.2
11 Modesto CA -0.7 -0.8 0.2 9.1
12 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA -0.7 -0.7 0.3 12.8
13 Bellingham WA -0.6 -0.8 0.3 12.6
14 Hanford-Corcoran CA -0.6 -0.7 0.3 10.0
15 Longview WA -0.6 -0.8 0.2 11.7
16 Mount Vernon-Anacortes WA -0.6 -1.0 0.0 10.9
17 Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade CA -0.6 -0.7 0.3 10.1
18 Salinas CA -0.6 -0.7 0.3 9.6
19 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA -0.6 -0.7 0.3 8.0
20 Yuba City CA -0.6 -0.7 0.2 9.5
21 El Centro CA -0.5 -0.5 0.5 11.6
22 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim CA -0.5 -0.5 0.4 11.2
23 Madera CA -0.5 -0.5 0.5 12.5
24 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura CA -0.5 -0.5 0.4 10.6
25 Stockton-Lodi CA -0.5 -0.6 0.4 10.3
26 Wenatchee WA -0.4 -0.6 0.4 13.6
27 Boise City ID -0.3 -0.1 0.8 9.4
28 Fresno CA -0.3 -0.4 0.6 12.7
29 Grants Pass OR -0.3 -0.3 0.5 8.8
30 Merced CA -0.3 -0.5 0.5 12.5
31 Olympia-Tumwater WA -0.3 -0.4 0.6 15.5
32 San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande CA -0.3 -0.3 0.7 13.0
33 Visalia-Porterville CA -0.3 -0.4 0.5 12.7
34 Walla Walla WA -0.3 -0.3 0.7 17.9
35 Bakersfield CA -0.2 -0.3 0.7 14.0
36 Medford OR -0.2 -0.3 0.4 6.9
37 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro OR-WA -0.2 -0.3 0.6 10.5
38 Santa Maria-Santa Barbara CA -0.2 -0.3 0.7 12.4
39 Spokane-Spokane Valley WA -0.2 -0.5 0.6 14.7
40 Boulder CO -0.1 -0.4 0.7 12.6
41 California-Lexington Park MD -0.1 0.0 0.5 7.9
42 Colorado Springs CO -0.1 -0.3 0.8 13.7
43 Fort Collins CO -0.1 -0.3 0.7 13.0
44 Grand Junction CO -0.1 -0.4 0.6 13.0
45 Greeley CO -0.1 -0.3 0.7 12.1
46 Pueblo CO -0.1 -0.4 0.7 13.0
47 Coeur d'Alene ID 0.0 0.3 1.2 14.9
48 Corvallis OR 0.0 -0.1 0.7 10.1
49 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO 0.0 -0.3 0.8 13.5
50 Odessa TX 0.0 -0.2 0.9 4.2
51 Pocatello ID 0.0 0.1 1.0 14.6
52 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA 0.0 -0.1 0.9 15.9
53 Salem OR 0.0 -0.1 0.7 11.4
54 San Diego-Carlsbad CA 0.0 -0.2 0.9 16.6
55 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MD 0.1 0.1 0.7 9.4
56 Beaumont-Port Arthur TX 0.1 -0.1 1.0 7.7
57 Eugene OR 0.1 0.1 0.8 12.0
58 Idaho Falls ID 0.1 0.1 1.1 15.3
59 Midland TX 0.1 0.0 1.2 6.7
60 Ogden-Clearfield UT 0.1 0.1 0.9 15.9
61 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV 0.1 0.2 0.8 7.9
62 Albany OR 0.2 0.1 0.9 14.2
63 Harrisonburg VA 0.2 0.4 1.1 11.0
64 Laredo TX 0.2 0.1 1.2 9.9
65 Lewiston ID-WA 0.2 -0.1 0.9 14.6
66 Mankato-North Mankato MN 0.2 0.6 1.5 8.3
67 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI 0.2 0.7 1.5 9.3
68 Rochester MN 0.2 0.6 1.4 9.1
69 Salt Lake City UT 0.2 0.2 1.1 15.6
70 Williamsport PA 0.2 0.6 1.0 8.2
71 Bend-Redmond OR 0.3 0.2 0.9 15.3
72 Columbus GA-AL 0.3 0.1 0.8 8.0
73 Cumberland MD-WV 0.3 0.4 0.9 10.8
74 Gettysburg PA 0.3 0.6 1.0 9.0
75 Lima OH 0.3 0.5 1.4 9.0
76 Logan UT-ID 0.3 0.3 1.1 19.3
77 Provo-Orem UT 0.3 0.2 1.0 17.0
78 San Angelo TX 0.3 0.1 1.2 9.8
79 Sierra Vista-Douglas AZ 0.3 -0.2 0.7 12.2
80 St. Cloud MN 0.3 0.8 1.6 11.1
81 St. George UT 0.3 0.2 1.1 18.1
82 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News VA-NC 0.3 0.5 1.3 12.4
83 Wheeling WV-OH 0.3 0.4 0.9 6.7
84 Winchester VA-WV 0.3 0.5 1.2 12.8
85 Abilene TX 0.4 0.3 1.5 13.3
86 Altoona PA 0.4 0.7 1.2 10.4
87 Lancaster PA 0.4 0.7 1.2 11.9
88 Muncie IN 0.4 0.8 1.2 11.1
89 Richmond VA 0.4 0.6 1.4 13.0
90 Roanoke VA 0.4 0.6 1.4 14.2
91 Toledo OH 0.4 0.8 1.7 10.3
92 Weirton-Steubenville WV-OH 0.4 0.6 1.3 9.4
93 Youngstown-Warren-Boardman OH-PA 0.4 0.7 1.6 11.5
94 Amarillo TX 0.5 0.3 1.5 13.0
95 Bay City MI 0.5 0.8 1.4 9.8
96 Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford VA 0.5 0.5 1.3 12.5
97 Carson City NV 0.5 0.6 0.8 13.3
98 Charlottesville VA 0.5 0.7 1.4 14.5
99 Cleveland-Elyria OH 0.5 0.9 1.8 10.8
100 Dayton OH 0.5 0.9 1.8 11.7
101 Dover DE 0.5 0.6 1.1 12.4
102 Duluth MN-WI 0.5 1.0 1.8 12.2
103 Enid OK 0.5 0.6 1.0 8.2
104 Evansville IN-KY 0.5 0.9 1.3 10.2
105 Lafayette-West Lafayette IN 0.5 0.9 1.2 10.5
106 Lebanon PA 0.5 0.8 1.2 11.0
107 Lincoln NE 0.5 0.8 1.4 9.7
108 Morgantown WV 0.5 0.4 0.7 8.1
109 Pittsburgh PA 0.5 0.9 1.3 10.2
110 Reading PA 0.5 0.8 1.3 12.9
111 State College PA 0.5 0.9 1.3 10.4
  USA 0.5 0.7 1.4 14.6
112 Victoria TX 0.5 0.3 1.4 12.7
113 York-Hanover PA 0.5 0.9 1.3 12.3
114 Battle Creek MI 0.6 0.9 1.5 11.0
115 Bloomsburg-Berwick PA 0.6 0.9 1.3 11.9
116 Columbus OH 0.6 1.1 1.9 14.1
117 Elkhart-Goshen IN 0.6 1.0 1.4 12.1
118 Grand Island NE 0.6 0.8 1.4 11.1
119 Huntington-Ashland WV-KY-OH 0.6 0.6 1.0 8.8
120 Johnstown PA 0.6 0.9 1.4 11.8
121 Manhattan KS 0.6 0.8 1.4 10.3
122 Mansfield OH 0.6 1.1 2.0 13.6
123 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission TX 0.6 0.4 1.5 14.2
124 Niles-Benton Harbor MI 0.6 0.8 1.4 9.8
125 Reno NV 0.6 0.6 1.0 13.7
126 Springfield MA 0.6 0.8 1.5 11.3
127 Urban Honolulu HI 0.6 0.7 0.8 10.9
128 Akron OH 0.7 0.8 1.7 10.7
129 Boston-Cambridge-Newton MA-NH 0.7 0.9 1.6 11.7
130 Canton-Massillon OH 0.7 0.7 1.6 9.6
131 Cape Girardeau MO-IL 0.7 1.1 1.6 11.6
132 Charleston WV 0.7 0.6 0.9 10.1
133 Cincinnati OH-KY-IN 0.7 1.1 1.9 14.0
134 Corpus Christi TX 0.7 0.4 1.6 14.5
135 El Paso TX 0.7 0.4 1.5 14.7
136 Fargo ND-MN 0.7 1.0 1.4 9.8
137 Farmington NM 0.7 0.6 0.9 12.1
138 Flint MI 0.7 1.0 1.6 11.8
139 Grand Forks ND-MN 0.7 1.1 1.3 8.8
140 Hagerstown-Martinsburg MD-WV 0.7 0.8 1.3 16.2
141 Lake Havasu City-Kingman AZ 0.7 0.2 1.1 17.9
142 Lansing-East Lansing MI 0.7 1.0 1.6 9.3
143 Lynchburg VA 0.7 0.9 1.6 16.1
144 Michigan City-La Porte IN 0.7 1.0 1.4 12.8
145 Monroe MI 0.7 1.0 1.6 9.4
146 Parkersburg-Vienna WV 0.7 0.5 0.8 9.1
147 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington PA-NJ-DE-MD 0.7 1.0 1.4 11.9
148 Staunton-Waynesboro VA 0.7 0.9 1.6 16.0
149 Wausau WI 0.7 1.0 1.6 9.5
150 Wichita Falls TX 0.7 0.5 1.6 15.8
151 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton PA-NJ 0.8 1.1 1.5 13.7
152 Bloomington IN 0.8 1.3 1.6 13.2
153 Champaign-Urbana IL 0.8 1.4 1.7 10.6
154 Columbus IN 0.8 1.1 1.5 13.0
155 Decatur IL 0.8 1.3 1.6 9.8
156 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MI 0.8 1.2 1.8 11.3
157 Erie PA 0.8 1.1 1.6 14.1
158 Fort Wayne IN 0.8 1.2 1.6 14.7
159 Harrisburg-Carlisle PA 0.8 1.1 1.5 13.7
160 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land TX 0.8 0.6 1.7 15.3
161 Jackson MI 0.8 1.1 1.8 11.3
162 Longview TX 0.8 0.6 1.7 18.1
163 Louisville/Jefferson County KY-IN 0.8 0.9 1.4 11.1
164 Oklahoma City OK 0.8 0.9 1.4 14.1
165 Saginaw MI 0.8 1.0 1.7 11.4
166 St. Joseph MO-KS 0.8 1.1 1.6 12.1
167 Tucson AZ 0.8 0.3 1.3 17.8
168 Worcester MA-CT 0.8 1.0 1.7 12.5
169 Yuma AZ 0.8 0.3 1.2 18.3
170 Ann Arbor MI 0.9 1.5 2.1 12.5
171 Bismarck ND 0.9 1.1 1.3 8.5
172 Carbondale-Marion IL 0.9 1.3 1.6 11.3
173 Chambersburg-Waynesboro PA 0.9 1.3 1.7 14.6
174 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin IL-IN-WI 0.9 1.3 1.7 10.9
175 College Station-Bryan TX 0.9 0.8 1.9 17.2
176 Danville IL 0.9 1.4 1.7 11.3
177 Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI 0.9 1.4 2.1 15.3
178 Kokomo IN 0.9 1.2 1.6 14.9
179 Lubbock TX 0.9 0.7 1.8 16.0
180 Macon GA 0.9 0.7 1.4 15.3
181 Memphis TN-MS-AR 0.9 1.0 1.7 15.6
182 Muskegon MI 0.9 1.2 1.8 14.2
183 Omaha-Council Bluffs NE-IA 0.9 1.1 1.8 12.8
184 Prescott AZ 0.9 0.4 1.4 18.7
185 Racine WI 0.9 1.2 1.8 11.0
186 San Antonio-New Braunfels TX 0.9 0.6 1.7 18.0
187 Scranton--Wilkes-Barre--Hazleton PA 0.9 1.2 1.6 16.0
188 Springfield OH 0.9 1.4 2.3 15.8
189 Topeka KS 0.9 1.1 1.6 14.3
190 Tuscaloosa AL 0.9 1.0 1.2 10.7
191 Davenport-Moline-Rock Island IA-IL 1.0 1.5 1.9 10.1
192 Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson IN 1.0 1.4 1.8 16.2
193 Kalamazoo-Portage MI 1.0 1.4 2.1 15.0
194 Kansas City MO-KS 1.0 1.3 1.9 15.5
195 La Crosse-Onalaska WI-MN 1.0 1.3 1.9 12.4
196 Midland MI 1.0 1.5 2.1 17.1
197 Salisbury MD-DE 1.0 1.0 1.5 19.2
198 South Bend-Mishawaka IN-MI 1.0 1.4 1.8 14.8
199 Springfield IL 1.0 1.4 1.7 11.4
200 St. Louis MO-IL 1.0 1.3 1.8 12.0
201 Tallahassee FL 1.0 0.9 1.7 17.6
202 Terre Haute IN 1.0 1.4 1.8 15.2
203 Waco TX 1.0 0.9 2.0 20.1
204 Wichita KS 1.0 1.1 1.6 14.7
205 Albany GA 1.1 0.9 1.6 17.3
206 Alexandria LA 1.1 1.3 1.2 9.9
207 Appleton WI 1.1 1.3 1.9 12.7
208 Athens-Clarke County GA 1.1 0.9 1.6 17.8
209 Beckley WV 1.1 1.0 1.3 14.8
210 Bowling Green KY 1.1 1.1 1.6 14.9
211 Brownsville-Harlingen TX 1.1 0.9 2.0 21.3
212 Gainesville FL 1.1 1.0 1.7 18.3
213 Green Bay WI 1.1 1.4 2.0 13.6
214 Iowa City IA 1.1 1.3 1.8 8.7
215 Jacksonville NC 1.1 1.3 2.0 20.3
216 Jefferson City MO 1.1 1.3 1.7 16.1
217 Lake Charles LA 1.1 1.3 1.2 9.5
218 Lawrence KS 1.1 1.3 1.8 15.9
219 Lawton OK 1.1 1.2 1.6 15.1
220 Lexington-Fayette KY 1.1 1.2 1.8 14.2
221 Peoria IL 1.1 1.6 1.9 13.2
222 Pittsfield MA 1.1 1.2 2.0 16.2
223 Rockford IL 1.1 1.6 1.9 13.0
224 Santa Fe NM 1.1 0.9 1.3 15.7
225 Warner Robins GA 1.1 0.9 1.6 18.0
226 Albuquerque NM 1.2 1.1 1.5 17.2
227 Birmingham-Hoover AL 1.2 1.4 1.6 15.3
228 Bloomington IL 1.2 1.6 2.0 15.4
229 Chattanooga TN-GA 1.2 1.3 2.1 21.3
230 Cleveland TN 1.2 1.4 2.2 21.4
231 East Stroudsburg PA 1.2 1.5 1.9 20.5
232 Elmira NY 1.2 1.4 1.7 8.9
233 Fond du Lac WI 1.2 1.5 2.1 13.0
234 Goldsboro NC 1.2 1.4 2.1 19.9
235 Jackson TN 1.2 1.3 2.1 22.3
236 Janesville-Beloit WI 1.2 1.5 2.1 13.2
237 Kankakee IL 1.2 1.6 1.9 14.9
238 Knoxville TN 1.2 1.4 2.2 22.4
239 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis WI 1.2 1.4 2.0 11.9
240 Montgomery AL 1.2 1.3 1.5 14.2
241 New Bern NC 1.2 1.4 2.0 19.0
242 New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA 1.2 1.4 1.8 12.4
243 Oshkosh-Neenah WI 1.2 1.5 2.0 13.8
244 Sheboygan WI 1.2 1.5 2.0 14.6
245 Sherman-Denison TX 1.2 1.0 2.1 23.9
246 Tulsa OK 1.2 1.2 1.6 17.8
247 Tyler TX 1.2 0.9 2.0 21.7
248 Valdosta GA 1.2 1.0 1.7 19.2
249 Wilmington NC 1.2 1.3 2.0 20.2
250 Asheville NC 1.3 1.5 2.2 21.1
251 Augusta-Richmond County GA-SC 1.3 1.3 1.7 18.0
252 Austin-Round Rock TX 1.3 0.9 2.2 22.7
253 Brunswick GA 1.3 1.2 1.8 21.0
254 Columbia MO 1.3 1.5 2.1 15.5
255 Dalton GA 1.3 1.1 1.8 20.1
256 Decatur AL 1.3 1.4 1.6 18.7
257 Eau Claire WI 1.3 1.5 2.1 14.0
258 Flagstaff AZ 1.3 0.7 1.6 24.3
259 Florence SC 1.3 1.4 1.4 13.9
260 Gainesville GA 1.3 1.1 1.8 23.9
261 Greensboro-High Point NC 1.3 1.3 2.0 19.3
262 Greenville NC 1.3 1.3 2.0 18.4
263 Johnson City TN 1.3 1.5 2.2 21.2
264 Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol TN-VA 1.3 1.5 2.2 23.4
265 Las Cruces NM 1.3 1.1 1.5 17.6
266 Owensboro KY 1.3 1.3 1.9 15.5
267 Panama City FL 1.3 1.4 2.1 23.7
268 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent FL 1.3 1.3 2.0 21.7
269 Rocky Mount NC 1.3 1.4 2.0 19.3
270 Springfield MO 1.3 1.5 2.0 18.6
271 Trenton NJ 1.3 1.4 1.7 14.9
272 Winston-Salem NC 1.3 1.5 2.2 20.1
273 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell GA 1.4 1.2 2.0 22.6
274 Barnstable Town MA 1.4 1.5 2.2 20.9
275 Baton Rouge LA 1.4 1.6 1.5 12.5
276 Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin FL 1.4 1.1 1.9 22.3
277 Des Moines-West Des Moines IA 1.4 1.5 2.1 11.9
278 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox KY 1.4 1.4 1.9 17.7
279 Glens Falls NY 1.4 1.7 2.0 13.4
280 Houma-Thibodaux LA 1.4 1.6 1.5 11.8
281 Killeen-Temple TX 1.4 1.2 2.3 26.2
282 Madison WI 1.4 1.6 2.2 14.3
283 Mobile AL 1.4 1.4 1.6 15.7
284 Monroe LA 1.4 1.5 1.5 12.0
285 Morristown TN 1.4 1.5 2.3 23.0
286 New Orleans-Metairie LA 1.4 1.6 1.5 13.3
287 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford FL 1.4 1.4 2.1 23.8
288 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ 1.4 0.9 1.8 24.3
289 Shreveport-Bossier City LA 1.4 1.5 1.4 11.8
290 Sumter SC 1.4 1.7 1.8 19.0
291 Waterloo-Cedar Falls IA 1.4 1.6 2.1 11.3
292 Watertown-Fort Drum NY 1.4 1.5 1.8 10.8
293 Binghamton NY 1.5 1.8 2.1 13.2
294 Cedar Rapids IA 1.5 1.7 2.2 12.3
295 Clarksville TN-KY 1.5 1.7 2.4 23.6
296 Columbia SC 1.5 1.7 1.8 18.5
297 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX 1.5 1.2 2.3 23.8
298 Dubuque IA 1.5 1.5 2.1 12.1
299 Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton NC 1.5 1.7 2.4 22.5
300 Hinesville GA 1.5 1.2 1.9 23.9
301 Ithaca NY 1.5 1.8 2.1 15.1
302 Jacksonville FL 1.5 1.4 2.2 25.3
303 Lakeland-Winter Haven FL 1.5 1.6 2.3 26.5
304 Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise NV 1.5 1.6 1.8 23.8
305 Lewiston-Auburn ME 1.5 1.5 1.9 18.9
306 Manchester-Nashua NH 1.5 1.8 1.8 16.5
307 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach FL 1.5 1.5 2.2 25.5
308 Norwich-New London CT 1.5 1.8 2.1 12.8
309 Ocean City NJ 1.5 1.6 1.9 19.3
310 Providence-Warwick RI-MA 1.5 1.6 2.0 15.7
311 Sebring FL 1.5 1.4 2.2 26.5
312 Sioux Falls SD 1.5 1.6 1.8 17.0
313 Texarkana TX-AR 1.5 1.3 2.0 19.4
314 Vineland-Bridgeton NJ 1.5 1.6 1.9 17.7
315 Albany-Schenectady-Troy NY 1.6 1.8 2.1 14.0
316 Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville AL 1.6 1.6 1.8 18.1
317 Auburn-Opelika AL 1.6 1.6 1.8 17.9
318 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk CT 1.6 2.0 2.3 14.6
319 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach FL 1.6 1.5 2.3 26.9
320 Dothan AL 1.6 1.7 1.9 18.5
321 Fairbanks AK 1.6 1.7 1.7 11.6
322 Gadsden AL 1.6 1.6 1.9 18.9
323 Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin SC 1.6 1.9 2.0 22.2
324 Joplin MO 1.6 1.8 2.3 20.0
325 Kingston NY 1.6 1.8 2.1 16.5
326 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin TN 1.6 1.7 2.5 26.5
327 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville FL 1.6 1.7 2.4 27.9
328 Portland-South Portland ME 1.6 1.5 1.9 17.1
329 Savannah GA 1.6 1.4 2.1 23.7
330 Sioux City IA-NE-SD 1.6 1.7 2.2 15.4
331 Syracuse NY 1.6 1.8 2.1 13.7
332 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL 1.6 1.8 2.5 29.3
333 Anchorage AK 1.7 1.8 1.9 12.5
334 Atlantic City-Hammonton NJ 1.7 1.8 2.1 19.6
335 Bangor ME 1.7 1.7 2.1 20.3
336 Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls NY 1.7 1.9 2.2 15.4
337 Burlington NC 1.7 1.8 2.5 25.4
338 Daphne-Fairhope-Foley AL 1.7 1.7 1.9 19.7
339 Durham-Chapel Hill NC 1.7 1.7 2.4 24.4
340 Fayetteville NC 1.7 1.6 2.3 22.1
341 Florence-Muscle Shoals AL 1.7 1.7 1.9 19.7
342 Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford CT 1.7 2.0 2.3 14.3
343 Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina HI 1.7 1.7 1.8 24.3
344 Lafayette LA 1.7 1.8 1.7 14.2
345 New Haven-Milford CT 1.7 1.9 2.2 14.3
346 Pine Bluff AR 1.7 1.8 1.6 13.1
347 Rapid City SD 1.7 1.9 2.0 21.1
348 Rome GA 1.7 1.5 2.1 26.4
349 Spartanburg SC 1.7 1.9 2.0 21.5
350 Utica-Rome NY 1.7 1.9 2.3 15.1
351 Ames IA 1.8 1.9 2.4 15.3
352 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia NC-SC 1.8 1.9 2.5 24.7
353 Great Falls MT 1.8 1.9 2.1 19.4
354 Homosassa Springs FL 1.8 1.7 2.4 31.0
355 Huntsville AL 1.8 1.9 2.1 22.0
356 Missoula MT 1.8 1.9 2.1 20.9
357 Ocala FL 1.8 1.6 2.4 29.8
358 Port St. Lucie FL 1.8 1.6 2.4 29.6
359 Raleigh NC 1.8 1.8 2.5 27.2
360 Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Beaufort SC 1.9 2.0 2.1 25.4
361 Jackson MS 1.9 1.8 1.8 16.7
362 Rochester NY 1.9 2.1 2.4 15.4
363 Sebastian-Vero Beach FL 1.9 1.8 2.6 31.0
364 Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL 2.0 1.7 2.5 34.3
365 Fort Smith AR-OK 2.0 2.0 1.9 17.6
366 Hammond LA 2.0 2.1 2.0 19.2
367 Hattiesburg MS 2.0 2.0 2.0 17.5
368 North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton FL 2.0 1.9 2.6 33.6
369 Punta Gorda FL 2.0 1.7 2.5 35.3
370 The Villages FL 2.0 1.7 2.5 32.2
371 Billings MT 2.1 2.0 2.3 21.1
372 Charleston-North Charleston SC 2.1 2.3 2.4 25.8
373 Cheyenne WY 2.1 2.3 2.1 14.5
374 Hot Springs AR 2.1 2.1 1.9 17.3
375 Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway AR 2.1 2.0 1.9 16.1
376 Gulfport-Biloxi-Pascagoula MS 2.2 2.1 2.2 20.9
377 Jonesboro AR 2.2 2.2 2.1 17.8
378 Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach SC-NC 2.3 2.2 2.5 27.7
379 Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island FL 2.3 2.3 3.0 39.9
380 Casper WY 2.4 2.6 2.4 14.0
381 Burlington-South Burlington VT 2.7 2.6 2.5 19.5
382 Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers AR-MO 2.9 2.9 2.7 27.5

(注:
 第3列是7月对6月月增幅,以此排名
 第4列是6月对5月月增幅
 第5列是5月对4月月增幅
 第6列是2022年7月对2021年7月年增幅

需要说明的,房价指数的月增幅数据是非常volatile的, 并且下月新的数据出来后最近几个月的数据会有较大的修正,即便这样这个数据还是有相当说服力的(注:别小看1%的平均月跌幅, 因为即便在次贷危机低谷,全国平均月跌幅也没有超过2%的,房价月增长2%不算新鲜事,但平均月跌2%还是非常少见)。

这是本周期Freddie Mac房价指数第一次显示多都市区同时出现房价下滑。这篇文章本来是上个月的数据还没出来之前写的, 我当时估计不少都市区应该出现房价下跌,但上月数据出来后, 只有 Napa CA 下跌了0.1%,没有数据支持,我也不能胡说八道, 只好再等了一个月到今天数据出来后再发。

由于房价指数有一定的滞后性(详见:如何理解历史房价指数和买卖数据 ,比如7月份过户的房子估计售价在5月份或6月份就早已经定了,所以7月的房价指数实际反映的是一两个月之前的价格。随着高利率的坚挺,以后房价指数中下跌的都市区会越来越多,趋势会越来越明显

可以看出,向来做为趋势引领者的加州部分地区,尤其是房价奇高的北加,以及华盛顿州,和受益于加州人口外溢而炙手可热的爱达荷、犹他、科罗拉多等西部山地州的泡沫正在破裂,由于价格超出家庭承受能力也正在下调。正所谓蹦得越高就跌得越惨,加州周边各州在过去涨幅太过凶猛,价格下跌是在情理之中。股票可以一年涨40%,房市一年涨40%就太离谱了。

再对我感兴趣的几个地区加几句评论和瞎预测。

德州在上次的次贷危机中受影响不大,这次就不会有那么好运了。房价上涨凶猛的奥斯汀价格应该会有不小幅度的下调。就连达拉斯和休斯顿可能也会有小幅调整。

佛州目前房市仍然是坚挺,在过去的一两年中,佛州是美国房价涨幅最快的州:

Ranking State 2022M6~2022M7 2022M5~2022M6 2022M4~2022M5 2021M7~2022M7
1 FL 1.5 1.6 2.3 27.1
2 NC 1.5 1.7 2.4 23.4
3 MT 2.1 2.1 2.3 23.1
4 AZ 1.2 0.7 1.7 22.5
5 TN 1.3 1.4 2.2 22.5
6 SC 1.7 2.0 2.0 22.0
7 GA 1.4 1.2 1.9 21.8
8 VT 2.7 2.6 2.5 20.3
9 AR 2.4 2.3 2.2 20.1
10 NV 1.2 1.2 1.5 19.8
11 TX 1.1 0.8 2.0 19.7
12 ME 1.6 1.6 2.0 18.2
13 SD 1.5 1.7 1.9 17.9
14 MS 2.0 1.9 2.0 17.9
15 WY 2.5 2.8 2.5 17.6
16 RI 1.8 2.0 2.2 17.3
17 AL 1.5 1.5 1.7 17.1
18 UT 0.2 0.2 1.0 16.6
19 NH 1.4 1.7 1.8 16.6
20 NM 1.1 1.0 1.4 15.8
21 OK 0.9 1.0 1.5 15.5
22 MO 1.1 1.4 1.9 14.8
  USA 0.5 0.7 1.4 14.6
23 KS 0.9 1.1 1.7 14.5
24 HI 1.0 0.9 1.1 14.5
25 NJ 1.3 1.5 1.8 14.3
26 CT 1.6 2.0 2.2 14.2
27 KY 1.1 1.2 1.7 14.1
28 ID -0.1 0.2 1.1 13.8
29 CO 0.0 -0.3 0.8 13.8
30 IN 0.8 1.2 1.6 13.6
31 WI 1.2 1.5 2.0 13.1
32 DE 0.6 0.8 1.2 12.9
33 WA -0.6 -0.7 0.3 12.8
34 LA 1.4 1.6 1.5 12.8
35 AK 1.7 1.8 1.9 12.8
36 NY 1.4 1.6 2.0 12.5
37 IA 1.5 1.6 2.1 12.5
38 MI 0.9 1.2 1.8 12.4
39 NE 0.8 1.0 1.6 12.2
40 OH 0.5 0.9 1.8 12.1
41 MA 0.7 0.9 1.6 12.1
42 PA 0.5 0.9 1.3 11.3
43 VA 0.3 0.4 1.2 11.2
44 OR 0.0 -0.1 0.7 11.1
45 IL 0.9 1.4 1.7 11.1
46 CA -0.5 -0.6 0.4 10.7
47 ND 1.0 1.3 1.4 10.3
48 WV 0.7 0.6 0.9 10.1
49 MN 0.2 0.7 1.5 9.6
50 MD 0.1 0.1 0.6 9.2
51 DC 0.5 0.9 0.9 5.9

但不要高兴的太早,佛州的房市向来是后知后觉,其实如果不包括过去两年, 除南部迈阿密等地区外,佛州其它地区的房价涨势也并不是太凶猛,尽管比全国平均要好些。再说,美国中西部很多鸟不拉屎的地方在过去两三年涨势也很凶猛,都算是补涨。这都是些跟屁虫,不能算是趋势的引领者。由于房市的趋势一旦形成,不可能马上终止,所以估计佛州的房市还会继续上涨,到年底包括Tampa等在内的热点城市的房价可能就该到顶并开始下调了。当然,下调的幅度取决于全国经济形势,毕竟佛州自己的经济撑不起它的地产业。

房价调整应该主要会局限在蹦得高跌得很的所谓热点地区,而对房价相对稳定的广大中西部地区的人们来说,咱们该干嘛还干嘛,别听了兔子叫耽误种豆子,BRRRR好就继续BRRRR,只要有现金流就不怕。

一孔之见,一孔之见! 若误信我的胡言乱语而造成损失,我只负一毛的责任,哈哈!

建宁 2022/09/01

所有跟帖: 

“估计佛州的房市还会继续上涨,到年底包括Tampa等在内的热点城市的房价可能就该到顶并开始下调了”,夏季就已经到顶了 -oldmansea- 给 oldmansea 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 12:49:52

你说的可能是对的,但反映到指数上可能需要到年底。 -jenning- 给 jenning 发送悄悄话 jenning 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 12:53:20

8月份应该比7月低,很快就出来了 -oldmansea- 给 oldmansea 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 15:28:27

谢分享!前几天看到一房子减价有点心动,现在不能冲动,要耐心等待。 -DJGO_SF1996- 给 DJGO_SF1996 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 12:58:00

对,管他东西南北风,继续BRRRR到底… -新手地主刚上路- 给 新手地主刚上路 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 13:36:36

BRRRR是啥意思? -oldmansea- 给 oldmansea 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 15:35:15

空手套白狼 -xinxin76- 给 xinxin76 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 16:05:26

请看建宁师父大作 -新手地主刚上路- 给 新手地主刚上路 发送悄悄话 (186 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 16:17:28

不考虑每年的seasonal波动吗?夏季从来就是比较弱的时期。 -windyLL- 给 windyLL 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 14:13:08

它有seasonal数据, 我没用,应该差不多,7月应该反映的是5月和6月的数据。 -jenning- 给 jenning 发送悄悄话 jenning 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 14:18:09

宾州比较熟悉,掉价的本来都不热的 -hz82000- 给 hz82000 发送悄悄话 hz82000 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 14:37:16

洛杉矶,旧金山,西雅图6月就开始跌了 -oldmansea- 给 oldmansea 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 15:51:59

湾区全美国跌幅最大。,报纸上有报道。 -1065- 给 1065 发送悄悄话 1065 的博客首页 (87 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 16:35:43

湾区跌的厉害。跑了不少人,加上tech不景气 -soldanella- 给 soldanella 发送悄悄话 soldanella 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 16:38:42

我也希望它继续跌,但上周开始回稳了 -兔8- 给 兔8 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 17:02:09

旧金山市区房价过去两年好像没怎么涨,但再之前涨的厉害。 -加州老中- 给 加州老中 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 17:19:57

房价指数还有按周报的? -oldmansea- 给 oldmansea 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 18:11:34

麻州是不是还在涨,没有跌。 -jianchi9090- 给 jianchi9090 发送悄悄话 jianchi9090 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 18:14:01

这个数据有两三个月的滞后期, 所以现在不好说, 问一下当地的realtor -jenning- 给 jenning 发送悄悄话 jenning 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/01/2022 postreply 19:59:33

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