as long as you know what you are doing

as I said, nobody knows the future, so if you did your homework ,made your decision and willing to accept the consequence. it is fine with me. I am not either longing or shorting any financial here, so I really can care less.

but based on the information I had, the financial crisis is far from over, 500bil option arm reset is coming within next couple months, and the whole CDS crap has not hit the fan yet. and even the CEOs of those financial firms still do not really know how much the assets are worth, how can you evaluate them ?

actually I still remember after internet bubble bursted, some friends were buying stocks like microsoft, cisco etc, they thought it was the deal of the century because everybody else "panicked" ! 8 years later, these are still the best tech companies in the world, but stock price goes nowhere even with 40% depreciation of USD. it really turned them into "long term investors" involuntarily.

nothing goes straight up or down, I still think the big picture of financial is down. mass psychology is often right than wrong, it is normally wrong when either during a bubble or at the key turning point. so betting against everybody else does not necessarily mean you are right.

所有跟帖： 

• thanks for reminding the risk (图) -longtermInvestor- ♂ (2801 bytes) () 08/10/2008 postreply 10:40:25

• forgot to mention, abk, mbi only insures senior tranch -longtermInvestor- ♂ (23 bytes) () 08/10/2008 postreply 10:42:11

• no, people are HOPING the worst is over -大猪头- ♂ (154 bytes) () 08/10/2008 postreply 18:58:52

• buying undervalued asset and catching -longtermInvestor- ♂ (185 bytes) () 08/10/2008 postreply 23:21:14

• you are assuming they are always right. -大猪头- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/11/2008 postreply 11:21:33

• I am assuming nothing, just try to illustrate -longtermInvestor- ♂ (134 bytes) () 08/11/2008 postreply 16:47:42