2012年最不靠谱的11个预测之二:房地产会再次大跌

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与某专家预测相反,房价在持续上涨,建商的股票翻了倍,

Fortune Investor's Guide 2013

11 worst predictions of 2012

  •  
Housing to slump, again
Housing to slump, again

Gary Shilling, an economist in New Jersey, delights journalists with his dour forecasts. Fear makes good headlines, of course, and he's good at making them. Problem is, he's been wrong on his biggest short -- U.S. housing -- all year.

 

Shilling warned of a wave of foreclosures in 2012, predicting that some 3 million to 5 million homes would remain in a shadow inventory, flooding the market and hurting all U.S. home prices. But that just hasn't happened. Foreclosures are hitting markets at an orderly pace, in large part because so many foreclosures have occurred in states like Florida that require a judge to approve the process. As Shilling cried wolf in 2012, homebuilder stocks roared back, home prices steadily rose, and new homes couldn't be built fast enough in the U.S. Time for a new short, Gary.

@FortuneMagazine - Last updated December 21 2012 07:02 AM ET

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