薄少帅请收:Comparative and Moat Analysis for IREN

IREN (Iris Energy Limited) is a bitcoin mining and data center operator emphasizing 100% renewable energy sources. Its moats are solid but evolving, particularly as it pivots toward AI/HPC to hedge against crypto volatility.

 

1. Approach

The following are IREN’s peers that I compared it with, based on moat pillars relevant to their sector in bitcoin mining, AI infrastructure, or components. The sectors are roughly divided into 3 buckets: (1) Crypto Miners: CLSK, CIFR, HIVE, MARA, RIOT & WULF; (2) AI/HPC Data Centers: APLD, CRWV/CoreWeave, & NBIS/Nebius, and (3) Enablers: NVTS/Navitas.

To save time, I asked Grok AI which one among CLSK, CIFR, HIVE, MARA, RIOT & WULF is the most competitive peer of IREN, and the answer was CLSK. So below I’ll only compare IREN vs. CLSK for the crypto mining sector.

I also consulted Grok AI for which company in the 2nd sector could be the biggest threat to IREN, and the answer was kind of obvious: it’s CRWV.

Hence, my comparative analysis will be focused on IREN vs. CLSK, IREN vs. CRWV, and IREN vs. NVTS.

 

2. Comparative Analysis

(1) Crypto Miners: IREN vs. CLSK
IREN: bitcoin mining & AI infra
- Facts: low energy cost, 100% renewable, owns all sites, great fleet efficiency, good hashrate & scale
- AI/HPC pivot: 800+ MW in development, early hyperscaler deals (NVDA GPUs), Green AI branding (i.e. strategic marketing and positioning of AI infra as environmentally sustainable)
- Balance sheets: $420m cash/$180m debt, zero lease drag, capex $0.9m/CPU

CLSK: bitcoin mining
- Facts: low energy cost, 80% renewable, leases 30% sites, great fleet efficiency, good hashrate & scale
- AI/HPC pivot: 300 MW in development, hosting pilots (no major deals yet), secondary focus
- Balance sheets: $250m cash/$350m debt, lease obligations, capex $1.2m/CPU

My Takeaways-1: IREN is more of a strategic compounder vs. CLSK. Its moat is wider and stickier in a world where hyperscalers pay premiums for green and owned infrastructure.

(2) AI/HPC Data Centers: IREN vs. CRWV

Among the three companies APLD, NBIS and CRWV, CRWV poses the greatest threat to IREN. As a pure-play AI GPU cloud provider with unmatched scale, CRWV directly competes for IREN’s core AI cloud customers, the high-end AI training/inference workloads, while poaching clients and commanding premium pricing.

IREN’s recent ~$10B Microsoft deal on November 5 bolstered its pivot, but CRWV has NVDA’s exclusivity, $25B+ backlog and 80%+ market share in specialized AI infra, and huge contacts… all of these make it hard for IREN to reach its $500M AI sales goal by Q1 2026. 

Below are the facts:
(a) IREN’s GPUs pale vs. CRWV’s fleet, 
(b) even though IREN relies on green energy for differentiation, hyperscalers generally prioritize CRWV’s speed/scale over the “all green” premiums, 
(c) IREN’s twin, APLD (ex-miner, US AI infra pivot), its relationship with CRWV is a feeder not a slayer, 
(d) NBIS’ geographic focus of EU-heavy limits its US clash with CRWV

My Takeaways-2: If IREN wants to hit its AI sales goal, it must differentiate itself from CRWV on costs or green energy, not raw GPU scale; though, even with this approach, I personally think its market share will either erode or be squeezed out by CRWV. In the AI infra pivot sector, IREN’s best alternative may be to compete with APLD and become another feeder of CRWV, or be squeezed out of the game, or “luckily”, be acquired.

(3) Enablers: NVTS/Navitas

NVTS and IREN operate in overlapping ecosystems, AI data centers and energy-efficient computing, but they are not direct rivals. NVTS is an upstream semiconductor supplier, and IREN is a downstream infrastructure player. IREN is the scaled operator winning the AI gold rush while NVTS is the picks-and-shovels supplier.

My Takeaways-3: IREN and NVTS could be more of a pair for full-stack services than competing peers.

 

3. Business Moats Analysis (scale 5)

(1) Cost leadership moat - scale 5/5: renewable energy cost moat
(2) Network effects moat - scale 2/5: 80% in crypto mining, 20% AI infra, under huge threat from CRWV’s dominance 
(3) Brand/regulatory license moat - scale 3/5: green AI brand premium, yet this is not “unshakable”
(4) Scale (Capital & Data) moat - scale 5/5: by owning infrastructure and pipeline, hence lower capex and debts
(5) Switching cost moat - scale 4/5: with MSFT’s 5-15yr leases for $10B, locked revenue 
(6) Proprietary tech/IP moat - scale 2/5: no patents, solely relies on site design and firmware tweaks 
(7) Distribution/access moat - scale 4/5: by owning land and grid rights
(8) A hidden moat, the finance expertise in IREN’s leadership team - scale 5/5: IREN is not just a miner, it’s a capital markets operator; in this capex-intensive industry, finance fluency isn’t a nice-to-have, it’s survival oxygen. This leadership team led IREN’s $20B Capex AI pivot.

My Final Takeaways: IREN has a total business moat of 30 out 40, i.e., 75% which should be considered as a “wide moat” ---- so, go IREN! :)

 

所有跟帖: 

太厉害了,我花时间研究一下 -薄利多收- 给 薄利多收 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:13:00

lol 得请吃饭,花了我两小时, -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (148 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:23:17

请客是必须的。两个小时能写出这么 -薄利多收- 给 薄利多收 发送悄悄话 (135 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 21:20:50

谢谢少帅肯定,本来是想周末写的,但自己也是好奇那护城河到底有多深呀lol -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (373 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 21:42:27

今天我告诉一个朋友,或许是因为我的工作性质,多年的经验可以让我在交流中很快辨识出 -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (581 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 21:56:27

CLSK is not comparable with IREN at all. -620Oaks- 给 620Oaks 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:23:23

In which way? -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:24:47

electric power. -620Oaks- 给 620Oaks 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:26:42

This doesn’t make my analysis and end results different;) -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:28:21

Yes.如果说有一个原因,要买这些比特矿企,那就是电力。 也就是说,他们转型中,才有了投资的吸引力。 如果说有一个股 -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (76 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:34:54

This won’t change IREN’s moats either, nothing in -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (95 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:46:28

after that 2-hr research, I’m comfortable to defend my -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (222 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:50:10

嗯嗯,真的写的很全面。good night. -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:51:56

谢谢晓炎的研究和bogMM的comments -香虞- 给 香虞 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 21:25:19

还有橡树,他看到了关键点,我只是回复了一下, -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (78 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 22:03:53

IREN ER data -香虞- 给 香虞 发送悄悄话 (155784 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 21:29:11

ER Link -香虞- 给 香虞 发送悄悄话 (109 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 21:29:44

谢谢! -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 06:32:17

CRWV有英伟达作为后盾,规模也更大,但是风险比较高,财务杠杆很高,即使用6年折旧也看不到财务盈利和正现金流 -GandalfOld- 给 GandalfOld 发送悄悄话 (284 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 22:43:38

早!刚起床lol 去gym之前读你的留言,突发奇想—— -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (463 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 04:16:50

晓炎早最,a creative idea. have a nice day~~ -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 06:03:25

早!lol 做了10几年m&a, 这点想象力应该有的;) -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 06:24:05

不错的想法。在别的地方看了分析,看来共同点是IREN的moat在搞定了电力配额。 -GandalfOld- 给 GandalfOld 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 06:12:32

我认为它最大的moat是在财力上,不是搞定电力配额, -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (364 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 06:30:44

有可能。电力的扩产对北美其实很不容易,结合最近黄仁勋对中国电力充足的焦虑,微软因为没有电力导致GPU的闲置, -GandalfOld- 给 GandalfOld 发送悄悄话 (329 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 07:33:03

是的,您说的很对!我前一个回复应该修正为—- -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (319 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 08:25:49

多谢你的文章总结,我是业余中的业余,自己一个人很难研究全面,讨论能让看法趋近真相。。。 -GandalfOld- 给 GandalfOld 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 09:57:14

Does the renewable electricity IREN bought comes through the -GlassPumpkin- 给 GlassPumpkin 发送悄悄话 (103 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 04:30:21

No clue, all I know is that it presents itself as all green -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 04:34:27

他们好像是用天然气发电的 -TexasSherry- 给 TexasSherry 发送悄悄话 (18745 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 17:06:17

从GRID来,不过那边有充足的天然气田。 -TexasSherry- 给 TexasSherry 发送悄悄话 (201 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 17:09:42

这个新的datacenter 有很多当地人反对,水冷的噪声太大 -TexasSherry- 给 TexasSherry 发送悄悄话 (1269 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 17:22:49

Atmos Energy ATO 是附近的煤气供应公司,挺稳定的有分红的公司 -TexasSherry- 给 TexasSherry 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 17:26:38

昨天忙,晚上才看了你,橡树和bog的分析。看来IREN有潜力,谢谢分享!我准备今天建仓。 -aloevera- 给 aloevera 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 07:30:19

Iren 前天说了, 也是有很多不确定性, -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 14:58:37

请您先登陆,再发跟帖!