晓炎 发炎了一个

使转请进：我对投资“俩美”的全面分析 - 晓炎发表于 财富智汇 - 论坛 | 文学城 

 

以下是AI的:

FNMA IPO / Recapitalization Scenario Matrix

Scenario	Capital Raise Size	Method	Dilution Impact (Common)	Preferred Conversion	Treasury Role	Investor Risk/Reward
A. Conservative Raise	$50B	IPO + retained earnings	~30–40% dilution	Partial conversion	Treasury reduces stake gradually	Lower dilution, but slower recap; upside capped
B. Aggressive Raise	$100B+	Large IPO, full conversion	~60–70% dilution	Full conversion of prefs	Treasury exits faster	Heavy dilution, but balance sheet cleansed; long-term upside if housing market strong
C. Hybrid	$70B	IPO + partial conversion	~45–55% dilution	Mix of conversion + buybacks	Treasury retains minority stake	Balanced dilution; moderate upside
D. No IPO (Retained Earnings Only)	N/A	Retained earnings over time	Minimal dilution	No conversion	Treasury stake lingers	Very slow path; political/regulatory risk high
E. Stress Case	$120B+	Forced recap under stress	70%+ dilution	Full conversion, prefs wiped	Treasury dictates terms	Common equity nearly wiped; only long-term optionality

 

 

Key Levers

• Capital Raise Size: Directly drives dilution.

• Preferred Conversion: Determines whether legacy preferred holders get equity or are impaired.

• Treasury Exit Strategy: Impacts supply overhang and investor confidence.

• Macro Housing Conditions: Strong housing = easier recap; weak housing = harsher terms.

所有跟帖： 

• I think what we need is valuation estimate for 3 scenarios -三心三意- ♂ (253 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 10:26:09

• Most likely, we are B. 但最好对C有个估值， 因为那是Bottom price -三心三意- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 10:27:10

• LOL，福星，你是说“发炎”后再发言吗？ -晓炎- ♀ (167 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 14:50:20

• 我忘了写了什么了，这世界变化快，那些都是前尘往事....... -晓炎- ♀ (167 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 14:51:44