晓炎 发炎了一个

来源: 于 2025-10-21 10:18:31 [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读：次

使转请进：我对投资“俩美”的全面分析 - 晓炎发表于 财富智汇 - 论坛 | 文学城 

 

以下是AI的:

FNMA IPO / Recapitalization Scenario Matrix

Scenario Capital Raise Size Method Dilution Impact (Common) Preferred Conversion Treasury Role Investor Risk/Reward
A. Conservative Raise $50B IPO + retained earnings ~30–40% dilution Partial conversion Treasury reduces stake gradually Lower dilution, but slower recap; upside capped
B. Aggressive Raise $100B+ Large IPO, full conversion ~60–70% dilution Full conversion of prefs Treasury exits faster Heavy dilution, but balance sheet cleansed; long-term upside if housing market strong
C. Hybrid $70B IPO + partial conversion ~45–55% dilution Mix of conversion + buybacks Treasury retains minority stake Balanced dilution; moderate upside
D. No IPO (Retained Earnings Only) N/A Retained earnings over time Minimal dilution No conversion Treasury stake lingers Very slow path; political/regulatory risk high
E. Stress Case $120B+ Forced recap under stress 70%+ dilution Full conversion, prefs wiped Treasury dictates terms Common equity nearly wiped; only long-term optionality
 
 

Key Levers

  • Capital Raise Size: Directly drives dilution.

  • Preferred Conversion: Determines whether legacy preferred holders get equity or are impaired.

  • Treasury Exit Strategy: Impacts supply overhang and investor confidence.

  • Macro Housing Conditions: Strong housing = easier recap; weak housing = harsher terms.