一次性彻底证明止损在逻辑上的荒谬性

本帖于 2025-10-10 18:29:13 时间, 由普通用户 monseigneur 编辑

Stop loss is touted as the indispensable "life saving" principle in investing, but let's scrutinize its logical absurdity once and for all.

first, the stop loss point is relative to your purchase point, so if the same stock drops, it triggers some people's stop loss rule, but some other people's appetite to bottom fish. There's no absolute standard to measure an investment decision. Everything is relative. But how can the same stock be good and bad at the same time, for people who piously follow the same stop loss principle? Unless, of course, it is quantum mechanics...

Second, the assumption of stop loss is that it will continue to fall. This, however, requires the assumption of momentum existing universally everywhere every time, which is a very strong yet impossible assumption.

third, the nature of stop loss is no more than a random decision to sell based on astrology or other factors. Wall Street know it, so they trigger people to stop loss so easily as they do a puppet. 

then why do some people swear it is stop loss that saved their investment life? Perhaps biological life too, in some extreme cases. That's because stop loss essentially cuts an investment into random pieces on time axis, thereby presenting some kind of "time diversification". This is different from "spacial diversification", where different stocks are picked, but each stock is a whole piece, not further divided into pieces on time axis.

In fact, when your portfolio are diversified, even if one stock drops to zero, it is not enough to cause panic selling, and you don't have to "stop loss" a stock at precisely an unfavorable price, which is nothing more than some whimsical impulse, far from being an educated investment decision.

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所以仓位控制比止损更重要。 -CLM2020- 给 CLM2020 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 18:48:44

是的 -monseigneur- 给 monseigneur 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 20:01:51

你讲的真好。非常清晰易懂。 -雨女- 给 雨女 发送悄悄话 雨女 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 19:04:12

谢谢 -monseigneur- 给 monseigneur 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 20:02:00

很好的思考,但是逻辑还是有漏洞的。问问scalping trading经验的人,没有止损的话,要100%胜率才能生存 -GandalfOld- 给 GandalfOld 发送悄悄话 (272 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 20:21:47

没有漏洞,高度集中一只股票,本身就是危险根源,止损只是让人可以多玩几次;如爬山不带水,为了活命喝粪水,不代表粪水延年益寿 -monseigneur- 给 monseigneur 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:13:18

有点稻草人的辩论法,喜欢把别人的观点往极端里推。(1)用trading session来分离风险,并不代表只有一个股票, -GandalfOld- 给 GandalfOld 发送悄悄话 (425 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:35:53

如果你讲清楚是多只股票,我不辩论;如果是持续玩一只高风险股票如期货,无论你怎么止损也改变不了命运,只不过是延长 -monseigneur- 给 monseigneur 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:51:36

你的命运在选择参与一个游戏的时候已经决定了,止损只不过是经常停下来出局,然后还是要回来玩,请问怎么逃过命运? -monseigneur- 给 monseigneur 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:57:43

要证伪“玩期货的长期一定完蛋”不难,找到一个玩期货为生并退休的。不过我其实是理解你原文的意思的, -GandalfOld- 给 GandalfOld 发送悄悄话 (607 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 22:10:11

我并没有说它的命运是完蛋,它的固有命运也可能是成长;买入卖出的真正理由的确应该是你说的那样,基于某种绝对标准 -monseigneur- 给 monseigneur 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 22:24:33

止损是为了加杠杆投机设计的,几倍几十倍杠杆,没有止损很快就爆仓了 -灵山问禅- 给 灵山问禅 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 20:26:33

Day trade,scalping,swing trade也是要有止损的,论坛里的TA高手比我懂 -GandalfOld- 给 GandalfOld 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 20:30:08

如果是那样,有止损也会爆仓,只不过是调慢了时钟而已,理由同上 -monseigneur- 给 monseigneur 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 22:01:39

Stop loss is not based on perfect science, but on chance -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 三心三意 的博客首页 (392 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 20:35:47

是否止损不是铁律,而是基于其它的情况来决定;绝对不止损和绝对要止损是同样荒谬的 -monseigneur- 给 monseigneur 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:05:55

这是对的。It is a probability, 不是绝对的 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 三心三意 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:08:59

但必需声明,止损的决定应该是罕见的,因为如果你买入一只股票的原因是长远的,那么卖出的原因就不应该是某些琐碎短期的事情 -monseigneur- 给 monseigneur 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:19:17

要么早止损,要么不止损。 -QinHwang- 给 QinHwang 发送悄悄话 QinHwang 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:36:50

是的,实际上止损应该发生在买入之前,一个不值得玩的游戏根本不需要开始 -monseigneur- 给 monseigneur 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:53:35

止损是给右侧趋势交易用的,左侧抄底不能用:起飞之前会剧烈震荡 -SGZ- 给 SGZ 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:19:03

为什么起飞之前会剧烈震荡? -cnrhm2017- 给 cnrhm2017 发送悄悄话 cnrhm2017 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:39:54

为了甩出弱手 -Maggie789- 给 Maggie789 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:51:32

也为了庄家更多低价吸筹 -SGZ- 给 SGZ 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/11/2025 postreply 05:53:27

我习惯左侧交易,极少追涨。左侧交易多数情况是要在水下一阵子。 -QinHwang- 给 QinHwang 发送悄悄话 QinHwang 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:41:16

我丢钱的教训是止损太频繁,自从改变了策略,很少再丢了。 -西糖胡同- 给 西糖胡同 发送悄悄话 西糖胡同 的博客首页 (279 bytes) () 10/11/2025 postreply 09:56:11

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