"Greenspan's Conundrum"

来源: 柠檬椰子汁 2021-12-16 07:36:33 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 0 次 (1522 bytes)
本文内容已被 [ 柠檬椰子汁 ] 在 2021-12-16 07:37:52 编辑过。如有问题,请报告版主或论坛管理删除.

Fed rate in the news is short term rate called "Federal Fund Rate".   Federal reserve adjusts that rate to control short term lending from banks, therefore adjust the economic growth.  However, mortgage rate follows the long term such as the "Rate of 10 year treasury note".   They are both interest rate but for different kind of products. 

How Federal Fund Rate impact the long term rates such as the rate of 10 year treasury note is a mystery.  In fact, there is a term called "Greenspan's Conumdrum" see 

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2021/11/16/further-evidence-on-greenspans-conundrum

"During his February 2005 congressional testimony, Alan Greenspan identified what he termed a conundrum. Despite the fact that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had increased the federal funds rate 150 basis points since June 2004, the 10-year Treasury yield remained essentially unchanged. "

In short, there is no clear/simple causation between Fed Fun Rate and Mortgage rate. 

所有跟帖: 

现在这10年利率就是没有什么反应,这也是要担心的! -hhtt- 给 hhtt 发送悄悄话 hhtt 的博客首页 (122 bytes) () 12/16/2021 postreply 08:27:44

如果长期利率不变,说明市场认为短期利率不会“大幅度”增加。 -柠檬椰子汁- 给 柠檬椰子汁 发送悄悄话 柠檬椰子汁 的博客首页 (380 bytes) () 12/16/2021 postreply 08:38:49

会不会有个可能,市场不看好长期经济的发展?所以十年和三十年利率不太升。 -hhtt- 给 hhtt 发送悄悄话 hhtt 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/16/2021 postreply 08:42:24

请您先登陆,再发跟帖!