"Greenspan's Conundrum"

来源: 2021-12-16 07:36:33 [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

Fed rate in the news is short term rate called "Federal Fund Rate".   Federal reserve adjusts that rate to control short term lending from banks, therefore adjust the economic growth.  However, mortgage rate follows the long term such as the "Rate of 10 year treasury note".   They are both interest rate but for different kind of products. 

How Federal Fund Rate impact the long term rates such as the rate of 10 year treasury note is a mystery.  In fact, there is a term called "Greenspan's Conumdrum" see 

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2021/11/16/further-evidence-on-greenspans-conundrum

"During his February 2005 congressional testimony, Alan Greenspan identified what he termed a conundrum. Despite the fact that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had increased the federal funds rate 150 basis points since June 2004, the 10-year Treasury yield remained essentially unchanged. "

In short, there is no clear/simple causation between Fed Fun Rate and Mortgage rate.