你看,你现在又说是IRR,那你就要跟人解释你算的是IRR,IRR也有自己的弱点的,你考过CFA不会不知道。

来源: asd_123 2012-03-23 19:43:06 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 次 (5438 bytes)
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IRR assumes reinvestment of interim cash flows in projects with equal rates of return (the reinvestment can be the same project or a different project). Therefore, IRR overstates the annual equivalent rate of return for a project whose interim cash flows are reinvested at a rate lower than the calculated IRR. This presents a problem, especially for high IRR projects, since there is frequently not another project available in the interim that can earn the same rate of return as the first project.

When the calculated IRR is higher than the true reinvestment rate for interim cash flows, the measure will overestimate — sometimes very significantly — the annual equivalent return from the project. The formula assumes that the company has additional projects, with equally attractive prospects, in which to invest the interim cash flows.[2]

This makes IRR a suitable (and popular) choice for analyzing venture capital and other private equity investments, as these strategies usually require several cash investments throughout the project, but only see one cash outflow at the end of the project (e.g., via IPO or M&A).

Since IRR does not consider cost of capital, it should not be used to compare projects of different duration. Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) does consider cost of capital and provides a better indication of a project's efficiency in contributing to the firm's discounted cash flow.

In the case of positive cash flows followed by negative ones and then by positive ones (for example, + + − − − +) the IRR may have multiple values. In this case a discount rate may be used for the borrowing cash flow and the IRR calculated for the investment cash flow. This applies for example when a customer makes a deposit before a specific machine is built.

In a series of cash flows like (−10, 21, −11), one initially invests money, so a high rate of return is best, but then receives more than one possesses, so then one owes money, so now a low rate of return is best. In this case it is not even clear whether a high or a low IRR is better. There may even be multiple IRRs for a single project, like in the example 0% as well as 10%. Examples of this type of project are strip mines and nuclear power plants, where there is usually a large cash outflow at the end of the project.

In general, the IRR can be calculated by solving a polynomial equation. Sturm's theorem can be used to determine if that equation has a unique real solution. In general the IRR equation cannot be solved analytically but only iteratively.

When a project has multiple IRRs it may be more convenient to compute the IRR of the project with the benefits reinvested.[2] Accordingly, MIRR is used, which has an assumed reinvestment rate, usually equal to the project's cost of capital.

It has been shown[3] that with multiple internal rates of return, the IRR approach can still be interpreted in a way that is consistent with the present value approach provided that the underlying investment stream is correctly identified as net investment or net borrowing.

See also [4] for a way of identifying the relevant value of the IRR from a set of multiple IRR solutions.

Despite a strong academic preference for NPV, surveys indicate that executives prefer IRR over NPV.[5] Apparently, managers find it easier to compare investments of different sizes in terms of percentage rates of return than by dollars of NPV. However, NPV remains the "more accurate" reflection of value to the business. IRR, as a measure of investment efficiency may give better insights in capital constrained situations. However, when comparing mutually exclusive projects, NPV is the appropriate measure.

所有跟帖: 

重点最后一段 -asd_123- 给 asd_123 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 19:44:19

我前面特地都推荐了MIRR可弥补IRR问题,但是IRR更直接明了。NPV相当于杀鸡的牛刀,把大家搞混。 -大家帮我买房- 给 大家帮我买房 发送悄悄话 大家帮我买房 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 19:50:29

你看我引用的那段,IRR在计算mutually exclusive projects和cash flow有正有负的及初始有投入 -asd_123- 给 asd_123 发送悄悄话 (161 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 19:53:27

嘿,我没有反对NPV,只是从更容易的IRR入手,至于多重解,我前面也有探讨过,懂得取舍不是大问题。 -大家帮我买房- 给 大家帮我买房 发送悄悄话 大家帮我买房 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:01:22

所以我说要解释清楚,你指的现金回报率是指什么呀 :p -asd_123- 给 asd_123 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:05:14

不就是现金回笼率吗?大家都清楚了,现金流总和归0,不需要引入NPV的概念。 -大家帮我买房- 给 大家帮我买房 发送悄悄话 大家帮我买房 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:10:54

现在大家才明白你指的是现金总和归零来算IRR,刚才都不明白你指什么呢 -asd_123- 给 asd_123 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:14:45

我归0公式写了有十遍了吧,大家都读过了。只有你没有对我的旧帖。 -大家帮我买房- 给 大家帮我买房 发送悄悄话 大家帮我买房 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:18:03

不好意思,确实没看你的旧贴,只是发现他们好像都没提归0公式,:p -asd_123- 给 asd_123 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:20:42

前面和kukuren也有讨论过,我要用IRR先定性,而NPV是属于定量的。 -大家帮我买房- 给 大家帮我买房 发送悄悄话 大家帮我买房 的博客首页 (196 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 19:55:13

问题是你让他们怎么算IRR?如果不懂公式,或者没有一个financial calculator?何况对出租房这种 -asd_123- 给 asd_123 发送悄悄话 (1339 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:03:19

你完全多虑,用Excel的IRR,MIRR即可,前面都介绍了。+---++也没有问题。 -大家帮我买房- 给 大家帮我买房 发送悄悄话 大家帮我买房 的博客首页 (121 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:07:54

问题是你一直在提现金流率,他们老地主对现金流率有自己的定义的。你才提的IRR,如果不提,谁 -asd_123- 给 asd_123 发送悄悄话 (52 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:13:17

你的臆想了,哪个老地主自己定义现金流回报率啦?只要我在婆婆妈妈的说个不停。 -大家帮我买房- 给 大家帮我买房 发送悄悄话 大家帮我买房 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:20:23

我刚才看到好多贴在写现金流啊什么的 -asd_123- 给 asd_123 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:21:39

是啊,用现金流计算回报率啊。 -大家帮我买房- 给 大家帮我买房 发送悄悄话 大家帮我买房 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:22:40

总之,和你说了半天,也还是和kukuren讨论过的一样,我还是先用IRR是分析是否值得投资,再用NPV计算具体回报,两者相互相成 -大家帮我买房- 给 大家帮我买房 发送悄悄话 大家帮我买房 的博客首页 (144 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:25:15

如果是个人投资,有时候不必算那么多,差不多就可以下手,再说人算不如天算,预期的现金流可能 -asd_123- 给 asd_123 发送悄悄话 (65 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:32:25

这你就从反对我的立场转到我的立场了。正因为IRR不依赖discount rate,所以它比NPV更明确简单的给出是否投资的信号。 -大家帮我买房- 给 大家帮我买房 发送悄悄话 大家帮我买房 的博客首页 (378 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:41:38

可是它还是依赖cash flow啊,你怎么设置每年的空置率和维修之类的费用?怎么预期突然上涨的 -asd_123- 给 asd_123 发送悄悄话 (46 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:45:29

对每个Ci的决定,IRR与NPV一样做。 -大家帮我买房- 给 大家帮我买房 发送悄悄话 大家帮我买房 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:51:14

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