the bottom line is that saudi makes more money at $60 than $100

来源: njrookie 于 2015-01-25 11:15:44 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (951 bytes)
本帖于 2015-01-25 11:17:40 时间, 由普通用户 njrookie 编辑
回答: 有个问题请教吕不韦同学。 由 edison11 于 2015-01-25 08:10:58

at $100 everyone can produce profitably and Saudi's market share goes down quickly. besides saudi has to cut production in order to keep rice artificially high, while other OPEC members cheat and non-OPEC members are not obligated to do so.

at $60 many high-cost producers will shut down over time and new exploration and drilling will stall. saudi's market share will go up and saudi will make more revenues overall. yes $90 is the budget break-even point for Saudi. however that is a static view keeping output level constant.

i feel the saudi is determined to teach high cost producers a lesson. they will not stop until there is a chill down the spine and blood everywhere. they are willing to burn their petrodollar reserve in the short term to deter new producers for a while.

russia provides just the right excuse and O8 is looking away.

just my 2c

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• Thank you for your thoughts. Could you elaborate more on your la -redis- ♂ 给 redis 发送悄悄话 (209 bytes) () 01/25/2015 postreply 13:07:43

• initially folks think the US and Saudi colluded to ... -njrookie- ♂ 给 njrookie 发送悄悄话 njrookie 的博客首页 (636 bytes) () 01/25/2015 postreply 14:42:18

• Thank you for the answer -redis- ♂ 给 redis 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/25/2015 postreply 15:23:02

• 我对谁是受害者的想法很不同。石油价格没有美国参与怎么搞？ -sweetptt- ♂ 给 sweetptt 发送悄悄话 sweetptt 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/25/2015 postreply 17:38:50

• it is all in the cost -njrookie- ♂ 给 njrookie 发送悄悄话 njrookie 的博客首页 (184 bytes) () 01/25/2015 postreply 18:31:58

• If US lift the ban for oil exporting, will that affect the marke -3bunny- ♀ 给 3bunny 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/25/2015 postreply 15:07:56

• $90 is the budget break-even point for Saudi. however that is a -Smilee- ♀ 给 Smilee 发送悄悄话 (212 bytes) () 01/25/2015 postreply 16:07:58

• Prof. Could you elaborate? -Smilee- ♀ 给 Smilee 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/25/2015 postreply 16:11:31

• at the current output level, Saudi fiscal spending ... -njrookie- ♂ 给 njrookie 发送悄悄话 njrookie 的博客首页 (1394 bytes) () 01/25/2015 postreply 18:37:36

• Thanks a lot! -Smilee- ♀ 给 Smilee 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/25/2015 postreply 18:41:42

• The worst thing is, if the crude oil price is not controlled by -edison11- ♂ 给 edison11 发送悄悄话 edison11 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/25/2015 postreply 16:56:54

• 沙特也可以一边空石油期货，一边在低油价的时候增产。对他们来说，亏不了多少 -牛二买刀- ♂ 给 牛二买刀 发送悄悄话 牛二买刀 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/27/2015 postreply 15:47:35

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