Bond market is more important than stk mkt.

来源: 山高月小 于 2008-03-19 08:33:17 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (358 bytes)

bond market decides if US can continue get loans from investors. If that goes, so goes economy.

If no one buys treasury, US will have to declare bankruptcy. But that has less probability than 20% yield on 30 year bonds.

Buy a home, 20%. buy a car, 15%.

Believe or not, I once paid 13.5% interest on my little car. That will happen again.

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• 20% treasury? that sounds attractive to me :-) -729418- ♀ 给 729418 发送悄悄话 729418 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 08:40:12

• if there is no hyperinflation, that's unlikely to happen. -729418- ♀ 给 729418 发送悄悄话 729418 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 08:49:41

• it happened in history. Now is worse than history. -山高月小- ♂ 给 山高月小 发送悄悄话 山高月小 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 09:01:17

• That is exactly why long bond mutual fund is doomed. -山高月小- ♂ 给 山高月小 发送悄悄话 山高月小 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 09:05:55

• 元老阿，呵呵。请教： -赵飞燕- ♀ 给 赵飞燕 发送悄悄话 赵飞燕 的博客首页 (70 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 09:24:45

• The household income growth is way behind monetary expansion -Aceofspades- ♀ 给 Aceofspades 发送悄悄话 (301 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 09:45:58

• so you also support that deflation is more likely -赵飞燕- ♀ 给 赵飞燕 发送悄悄话 赵飞燕 的博客首页 (21 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 09:49:03

• I put bets on hyper-DEflation followed by hyperinflation -Aceofspades- ♀ 给 Aceofspades 发送悄悄话 (116 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 09:56:14

• I put bets on deflation followed by inflation. hehe. :P -赵飞燕- ♀ 给 赵飞燕 发送悄悄话 赵飞燕 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 09:58:49

• Sorry, -Aceofspades- ♀ 给 Aceofspades 发送悄悄话 (27 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 09:58:53

• hyperinflation = headline inflation > 10%? -赵飞燕- ♀ 给 赵飞燕 发送悄悄话 赵飞燕 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 10:00:56

• Hyperinflation means bankrupcy of a debtor country. -Aceofspades- ♀ 给 Aceofspades 发送悄悄话 (76 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 13:16:11

• How about yours? 3% I assume, due to low inflation.:) -山高月小- ♂ 给 山高月小 发送悄悄话 山高月小 的博客首页 (586 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 09:49:12

• if the banks cannot lend, how can people borrow? -赵飞燕- ♀ 给 赵飞燕 发送悄悄话 赵飞燕 的博客首页 (442 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 09:57:34

• so where will the money injected by Feb go? -冬里- ♀ 给 冬里 发送悄悄话 (358 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 10:05:00

• Cant agree any more.:) -山高月小- ♂ 给 山高月小 发送悄悄话 山高月小 的博客首页 (649 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 10:18:13

• fed's money's going nowhere if the banks are not -赵飞燕- ♀ 给 赵飞燕 发送悄悄话 赵飞燕 的博客首页 (851 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 10:20:43

• FYI. I just received a mail from citi. -山高月小- ♂ 给 山高月小 发送悄悄话 山高月小 的博客首页 (421 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 10:28:04

• only because they think you can afford it... -赵飞燕- ♀ 给 赵飞燕 发送悄悄话 赵飞燕 的博客首页 (288 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 10:36:31

• No,no,no.. A lot of peole can afford. -山高月小- ♂ 给 山高月小 发送悄悄话 山高月小 的博客首页 (376 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 10:48:47

• suggest you take it if you are THAT confident about hyper-inflat -赵飞燕- ♀ 给 赵飞燕 发送悄悄话 赵飞燕 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 10:42:24

• I am not those leverage bunch. I have enough to play.. -山高月小- ♂ 给 山高月小 发送悄悄话 山高月小 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 10:50:24

• This is exactly Fed wants to bail out BSC at any cost. -冬里- ♀ 给 冬里 发送悄悄话 (575 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 10:38:58

• i support fed's BSC bail-out whole-heartedly. :D -赵飞燕- ♀ 给 赵飞燕 发送悄悄话 赵飞燕 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 10:43:58

• If FED keeps bailing out, do you believe there will -山高月小- ♂ 给 山高月小 发送悄悄话 山高月小 的博客首页 (16 bytes) () 03/19/2008 postreply 18:04:29

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