回复：Your logic is not convincing enough :-)

you are confined in your own logic. that is why my logic is not convincing to you.

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From historical studies, high price was never a cause for the slump. Like in the late 80s, price in many places in the US was tripled after a 5-6 year boom leg.

==> still not high enough.

Another example is China, price there has gone way beyond what a bubble is defined in the US, but there is no sign of dropping.

==> people who are buying in china now are NOT working class. They are somehow rich people (people who sold a house, people who somehow get money from many different resource, overseas buyers). You won't see a 30 years old average worker buys a house in china if there is no help from parent or whatsoever.

The real reason you don't buy now is that you already know that the slump has started and you are feeling very confident that price will go down more in 2-3 years. Your action is not the cause, but a result from the cause.

==> No. If there is a livable house in a comfortable area is with 3 times of a household's income, people will buy for primary residence anyway.

I don't think the cause is easy credit either because easy credit was not new to this cycle, it was the same back in the 80s.

what else could be the reason which pushed housing price so high over the last five years? You think people get a while lot richers in five years by salary and/or so-called investment? forget it.

所有跟帖： 

• 回复：回复：Your logic is not convincing enough :-) -miat42- ♂ (1443 bytes) () 10/31/2007 postreply 17:11:39

• well, all of your confusing words can be summrized -pediatrician2- ♂ (274 bytes) () 10/31/2007 postreply 17:19:26

• Thanks, we are basically on the same page :-) -miat42- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/31/2007 postreply 17:22:01

• 太精彩了,二位, DDD! -左右逢源- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/31/2007 postreply 20:35:17