BUFFETT 早在一年前就预警房地产和房贷泡沫

听听真正的投资大师是怎么说的

Buffett: Real estate slowdown ahead

The Oracle of Omaha expects the housing market to see "significant downward adjustments," and warns on mortgage financing.

Money Magazine
By Jason Zweig, MONEY Magazine senior editor
May 8, 2006: 9:58 PM EDT

On the real estate bubble

Buffett: "What we see in our residential brokerage business [HomeServices of America, the nation's second-largest realtor] is a slowdown everyplace, most dramatically in the formerly hottest markets. [Buffett singled out Dade and Broward counties in Florida as an area that has experienced a rise in unsold inventory and a stagnation in price.] The day traders of the Internet moved into trading condos, and that kind a speculation can produce a market that can move in a big way. You can get real discontinuities. We've had a real bubble to some degree. I would be surprised if there aren't some significant downward adjustments, especially in the higher end of the housing market."

On mortgage financing

Munger: "There is a lot of ridiculous credit being extended in the U.S. housing sector."

Buffett: "Dumb lending always has its consequences. It's like a disease that doesn't manifest itself for a few weeks, like an epidemic that doesn't show up until it's too late to stop it Any developer will build anything he can borrow against. If you look at the 10Ks that are getting filed [by banks] and compare them just against last year's 10Ks, and look at their balances of 'interest accrued but not paid,' you'll see some very interesting statistics [implying that many homeowners are no longer able to service their current debt]."

It's like most trends: At the beginning, it's driven by fundamentals, then speculation takes over. As the old saying goes, what the wise man does in the beginning, fools do in the end. With any asset class that has a big move, first the fundamentals attract speculation, then the speculation becomes dominant.

Once a price history develops, and people hear that their neighbor made a lot of money on something, that impulse takes over, and we're seeing that in commodities and housing...Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It's like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything's going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, 'one more dance,' and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice."

http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/05/news/newsmakers/buffett_050606/index.htm

所有跟帖： 

• there were tons of this kind of warning over years. but -pediatrician2- ♂ (25 bytes) () 08/16/2007 postreply 06:54:12

• The day traders of the Internet moved into trading condos -basicenglish- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/16/2007 postreply 07:03:26

• I heeded his warning and stopped buying since 2004 -miat42- ♂ (193 bytes) () 08/16/2007 postreply 07:16:00

• I have written about my 3-year rule: -miat42- ♂ (222 bytes) () 08/16/2007 postreply 07:24:20

• buying a below average price is good health and LT Inv. -内嫁老婆- ♀ (166 bytes) () 08/16/2007 postreply 07:36:41

• it's right time -内嫁老婆- ♀ (111 bytes) () 08/16/2007 postreply 07:26:03