I may have been underestimating the credit risks

A while ago, I became very bullish in views about the financial market and economies. Recently, upon further thinking, studying and learning, I feel that I may have underestimated the risks that may come from the implosion of the credit derivative markets. The parties and the shear amount of money involved in this credit derivative bubble may be much grandier than my original estimation. From the clues that Fed is taking it so seriously this time, I am afraid that everybody needs to be more cautious this time, we may be very close to a real recession, not just housing sector.

所有跟帖： 

• By the time you see 'recession' in headlines, -dividend_growth- ♀ (108 bytes) () 08/12/2007 postreply 19:00:39

• The problem is we are NOT seeing "recession" in headline yet -miat42- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/12/2007 postreply 19:03:48

• What I'm trying to say is -dividend_growth- ♀ (180 bytes) () 08/12/2007 postreply 19:26:10

• Yes, we will need to wait 2 years probably -miat42- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/12/2007 postreply 19:29:13

• 1.4 t IR arm in 05/06 alone. -it888- ♀ (263 bytes) () 08/12/2007 postreply 19:25:03

• There is a difference: Credit crunch and housing crunch -miat42- ♂ (196 bytes) () 08/12/2007 postreply 19:28:19

• 不管怎么样（借口或事实），股市，房市都得大力调整了。 -pediatrician2- ♂ (178 bytes) () 08/12/2007 postreply 21:43:29

• The problem is: High wage won't come from lower cost area -miat42- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/13/2007 postreply 07:12:14

• his thinking might be a bit biased since he is heavy in RE. -pediatrician2- ♂ (42 bytes) () 08/13/2007 postreply 07:34:18

• no one knows, even Fed does not know -BayFamily- ♂ (169 bytes) () 08/12/2007 postreply 23:51:50

• not at all. -bayfamily- ♂ (70 bytes) () 08/13/2007 postreply 07:07:50

• 态度不错，就是不能当FED的Chairman.:). -A-mao- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/13/2007 postreply 06:30:00