我用成功率，胜率来打比方，不是很恰当。这时一件你自己（包括partners）可以认认真真做的事情，和去赌场里扔别人给你的骰子，去股市里买卖别人developed的paper，是有本质区别的。
Risk is a lot though, in the sense let's define risk as uncertainty. a) Money keeps going, difficult if possible to control budget. b) Time keeps going. It'll take some good professionals a couple years, and take some mediocre ones years or forever.
Liquidity could be bad.
The reward could be n-fold.
也要看项目，等机会。On the other hand, if you are very good at 垃圾胡, 拿了把清一色一条龙的牌，不好好做也很可惜。
In term of long-cycle, right now could be the best time to enter this, my opinion.
trendspike说“没有当地主来的刺激”，咱们顺着如山的思路给他神侃点刺激的。
