加州南湾一老美，远程投资德州东部，离大城市/国际机场100迈的小城，基建设施好，经济多元，稳定，增长，房价房租相关性好，长期持有，CAP率10+，空置率5%， 房管10%，从2002开始， 已购55房，2008年，拥有的房子价格和房租均没有明显下降。计划100房。
德州朋友，这大概在哪个地区啊？
这位老兄的方法与我的方法不同是，我不远程，只找房价大跌（跌60%以上）的银行屋和短售屋。共同点是离经济多元稳定发展的大都市近，100迈之内，都用PM管理，CAP率10+。他是在房子疯涨的2002年开始，我是在房市泡沫破裂后的2010年入市的。也许也可以试试他的方法，特别是如果银行屋持续短缺的话。
Brian R. • Alexander:
My goal on acquiring single family homes is a 10+ cap. This model assumes:
- adding to the purchase price any fix-up costs necessary to bring on-line
- a 5% vacancy rate
- 10% management fee (funds my internal ppty mgmt infrastructure)
- a run rate % of revenue for maintenance & utilities (based on my historical numbers)
- ppty taxes
Such a strong cap rate allows a very strong leveraged return, even assuming a 15 year loan.
I'm buying in a stable, growing market (very little distressed sales) in a stable & growing state. It's a smaller town (off the radar) with outstanding infrastructure and a diversified economy, within 100 miles of a major metropolitan area with an international airport.
It's not in California, though...it's in East Texas. Although I live in CA (SF Bay Area), I determined back in 2002 that I wouldn't be able to achieve this cap rate target without investing in distressed areas with substantial long-term risk from a "buy & hold strategy" standpoint, so I looked outside CA. I looked for growing, diversified economies with a very strong relationship between house prices and rental rates. I think my model was proven-out as the housing market debacle surfaced in 2008. The area that I invested in has seen virtually no devaluation and occupancy rates have remained strong.
I currently own 55 homes in this area all within a 5 mile radius...three of which I have purchased in the last few months and I'm currently in contract on a 4th. I've achieved an 11+ cap rate on the last three homes, and I expect the same on the current purchase.
I plan to grow to 100+ homes in my current area. If I concentrate 100+ homes in this tightly clustered area, I will achieve the proper scale over my existing in-house property management and maintenance infrastructure (which my 10% ppty mgmt fees pay for). I then plan to expand to other areas with similar fundamental metrics. I'm currently deciding whether to continue to grow this organically as I have done, or to bring in investors to ramp the model faster.
In summary, I'm in line with your expectations on cap rate, and also employ a buy-&-hold strategy as you do. Since I'm a fundamental, long-term investor, I stay away from the distressed areas. I'm sure there are micro-markets all around the country where this model works...it's just a matter of doing the research to find them.
